Melbourne – Victoria 2014

1. Will be interesting to see how Ellen Sandell does in this election.

2. It would appear that, after all the decrying of others doing preference deals, the Greens have done a deal not only with PUP but with the Libs themselves. Unbelievable hypocrisy.

   http://m.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-state-election-libs-and-greens-deny-preference-deal-20141123-11s6hs.html

3. What evidence do you have for that claim, PJ? Because there certainly isn’t any evidence in that article.

4. Considering that the Greens are preferencing Labor everywhere despite not having a deal, it’s pretty outrageous of Labor to be out there trying to suggest that in fact the Greens have done the opposite, and that they have done so because of a ‘deal’ with the Liberal Party.

   The ALP is trying to suggest that the timing implies some kind of deal (despite both parties saying they aren’t using the open HTVs, at least in most seats), but registration for how-to-votes is only open for one week, and they were all registered on the last day. That’s not evidence of a ‘deal’, that’s just evidence of parties rushing to get things in before the deadline.

5. Perhaps I misread it, but I read the article as saying that the Libs have lodged open tickets in the four seats the Greens have a shot and the Greens have lodged open tickets across the state, a position determined ‘as part of the negotiation process’. Thus, the Greens are not directing preferences to Labor and the Libs not directing preferences in the seats where their preferences will actually matter.

   Or is it saying that parties lodged both open and directed tickets and get to choose what they use on the day?

   Happy to be corrected, but I still think that is the meaning of the article.

   Copy/paste article:

   The Liberals and the Greens have denied doing a deal after both parties registered preference-free how to vote cards with the Victorian electoral commission.

   Earlier this month Premier Denis Napthine said the Greens would be placed last on all Liberal how to vote tickets because the party could not be trusted on the economy or jobs.

   On Saturday the Greens and Liberals registered “open tickets” which means that they do not instruct voters where to send their preferences. The parties have also registered preference tickets.

   The Greens registered open tickets in all 88 lower house seats, while the Liberals lodged open tickets in four Labor-held seats vulnerable from Greens: Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote.

   Preference flows in those seats will be crucial to the outcome in the four districts.

   Greens state director Larissa Brown said the Greens would not preference the Liberals ahead of Labor in any seat. She said there was no deal and no negotiation with the Liberal party.

   The Liberals on Sunday admitted the cards were created as part of the negotiation process. But Dr Napthine was adamant the Greens would remain last.

   “The Liberal Party will be handing out how to vote cards that preference the Greens last. Absolutely, handing out how to vote cards, we are doing it now at the pre-polls,” Dr Napthine said.

   The registered cards sent a wave of anger through the Labor party, who accused both parties of being hypocrites. Labor’s Martin Pakula said Dr Napthine’s pledge to put the Greens last was being undermined.

   “It is Liberal panic versus Greens hypocrisy,” Mr Pakula said.

   Northcote MP Fiona Richardson said it was head-spinning hypocrisy.

   “If the Greens claim there is no deal with the Liberals and that their ticket lodgement of mutually advantageous how to vote cards is all just a coincidence, then somebody please put money on porky pigs airlines taking to the sky,” Ms Richardson said.

   Ms Brown said the Greens always registered open and preference how to vote cards, with local branches then able to choose.

   But she also said if there were open tickets it would be in very few seats.

   “The inner city seats will not be running open tickets,” Ms Brown said

6. Both parties registered both HTVs that direct preferences to Labor, and HTVs that don’t direct preferences. The article is a bit confusing and implies otherwise, but that’s the journo’s fault.

   It’s ridiculous that Labor feels entitled to feel “a wave of anger” that their two main political opponents (who are both actually preferencing Labor over each other) have the hide to register alternative how-to-votes that don’t even preference the other party, but simply don’t indicate preferences! And their argument seems to rely on the timing, even though the narrow window for registration means you’d expect parties to be registering on the same day.

   I don’t know why the Liberal Party said what they did. Saying “part of the negotiation process” presumably means they want maximum flexibility in the last week – if you don’t register all of the options, you lose flexibility. That is not evidence of a deal with the Greens.

   The Greens have used open tickets in the past. I can understand why Labor doesn’t like that, but that’s not supporting the Liberal Party, considering the vast majority of Greens voters still preference Labor in that case. Considering that Labor rejected a deal with the Greens and the Greens are still stating they are preferencing Labor in most if not all seats, I think it’s deliberately misleading for Labor to state that the Greens are working with the Liberal Party.

7. Fair enough. I must say I find the whole multiple registration of HTVs pretty confusing.

   The Greens are campaigning very hard on Labor’s upper house preferences, ignoring that some of their own deals aren’t exactly ideologically pure, so I see Labor’s accusations as being on par with that – both fair and hypocritical at the same time.

8. Ben would be it be true to say that the difference in preferences flowing to the ALP between a Green HTV ticket preferencing the ALP and an open ticket would be minimal? Has anyone done an estimate as to what the difference might be?

9. Yes it is relatively minimal. There has been analysis but I’m not in a position to find it at the moment.

   I think the registration of alternative how-to-votes can make sense in a bunch of contexts – as a threat when doing preference negotiations or a backup in case the other parties rats on their end of the deal. In this case, there has been no deal and there doesn’t seem to be a prospect of one so that seems irrelevant in this case.

   I reckon the Greens just did it to create maximum flexibility, and they can’t just say “we’re not using them” because a couple of branches might be considering doing so. In my experience it’s extremely unusual that every Greens branch would make the same decision.

10. Doug – there was a report on that a few years back and it was pretty mininal – something like 74 per cent with an open ticket and 77 per cent with directed preferences.

11. Greens local groups decide preferences anyway. So regardless of every other seat in the state a local group can decide to differ.

    Worst thing about that, you or I might disagree with their decision.
    Best thing, you can rest assured that no one outside your area is coming in with the power to tell you what to do.

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