Macedon – Victoria 2014

ALP 2.3%

Incumbent MP
Joanne Duncan, since 2002. Previously Member for Gisborne 1999-2002.

Geography
North-western Victoria. Macedon covers regional areas to the northwest of Melbourne, including Gisborne, Macedon, Woodend, Hepburn Springs, Malsbury and Kyneton. The electorate covers the entirety of Macedon Ranges Shire, and parts of Hepburn, Melton, Moorabool and Mount Alexander council areas.

Map of Macedon's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Macedon’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Macedon shifted further away from Melbourne. Macedon previously covered the town of Sunbury on Melbourne’s northern fringe, but this town was spun off into a new electorate of Sunbury. In exchange, Macedon took in a much larger area to the west of the existing seat, gaining Daylesford, Kyneton and Malmsbury from Ballarat East, as well as northern parts of Melton and south-eastern parts of Bendigo East. These changes increased the ALP’s margin from 1.3% to 2.3.

History
Macedon was created at the 2002 election, replacing the abolished seat of Gisborne. Gisborne had been held continuously for the Liberal Party from its creation in 1967 until 1999, when the ALP’s Joanne Duncan gained the seat with a 9.4% swing.

Gisborne was abolished in 2002, and the newly created seat of Macedon had a notional margin of 0.4% for the Liberal Party. Duncan gained yet another 9.6%  swing to win Macedon with a substantial margin. She maintained most of that margin in 2006.

In 2010, Duncan was re-elected to a fourth term representing the area, with her margin cut from 8.2% to 1.3%.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Joanne Duncan is not running for re-election. Labor candidate Mary-Anne Thomas was controversially installed as the Labor candidate despite former federal MP Christian Zahra polling 81% of the local rank-and-file membership vote in the Labor preselection. Liberal candidate Donna Petrovich was a Liberal member of the Legislative Council for Northern Victoria from 2006 until she resigned in 2013 to run unsuccessfully for the federal seat of McEwen.

  1. Neil Barker (Greens)
  2. Mary-Anne Thomas (Labor)
  3. Peter Harland (Family First)
  4. Donna Petrovich (Liberal)

Assessment
Macedon is a very marginal seat and could go to either party. While current polling suggests a swing towards the ALP which would secure the seat for Mary-Anne Thomas, the circumstances of her preselection, and the strong Liberal candidate could see Macedon move against the statewide swing. Petrovich gained a 9% swing towards the Liberal Party in McEwen in 2013.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Tristan Weston Liberal 18,141 42.32 +11.01 42.00
Joanne Duncan Labor 17,282 40.31 -5.06 39.19
Nicky Haslinghouse Greens 3,613 8.43 +0.37 12.96
Judith Hungerford Family First 1,049 2.45 -0.15 1.96
Mahinda Samararatna Independent 886 2.07 +2.07 0.30
Sharon Lane Democratic Labor 700 1.63 +1.63 0.75
Gavin Greaves Country Alliance 683 1.59 +1.59 1.32
Lorraine Beyer Independent 516 1.20 +1.2 0.82
Nationals 0.56
Christian Democrats 0.06
Socialist Alliance 0.01
Other independents 0.05

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Joanne Duncan Labor 21,975 51.26 -6.91 52.30
Tristan Weston Liberal 20,895 48.74 +6.91 47.70
Polling places in Macedon at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, North in red, South-East in blue, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Macedon at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, North in red, South-East in blue, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Macedon have been divided into four parts. “East” includes Woodend and Ramsay. “North” includes Malmsbury and Kyneton. “South-East” includes Gisborne and Macedon. “West” includes Hepburn Springs and Daylesford.

The ALP won a majority in three out of four areas. The ALP won a slim 51% majority in the east, and 51.5% in the north. The ALP won a much larger 61.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in the west. In the south-east, which makes up the largest part of the population, the Liberal Party won a slim 50.5% majority.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
South-East 9.35 49.48 7,832 22.51
East 10.05 50.99 6,666 19.16
North 14.14 51.50 4,860 13.97
West 23.00 61.47 4,070 11.70
Other votes 13.07 52.56 11,360 32.65
Two-party-preferred votes in Macedon at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Macedon at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Macedon at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Macedon at the 2010 Victorian state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Ben,

    I think you might have some of the colours the wrong way around on the 2PP map. I’m pretty sure the Liberals wouldn’t have got 60-65% of the 2PP vote from Daylesford and Hepburn Springs!

  3. I think Donna will win this – she has an extremely high profile in the electorate and i predict her victory will be one of the rare highlights for the Libs on election night. She did exceptionally well in Mcewen, pollng high in Sunbury, Gisborne and areas within Macedon Ranges and I expect her to repeat those numbers.

  4. I agree with Kris, I don’t think the media have focused on how Macedon could be a real thorn in Labor’s side. Donna’s huge personal following could deliver a much needed win for the Liberal Party.

  5. I think u guys are overestimating the following a former MLC member would have. Whilst this will be close and possibly be a seat that swings the wrong way I don’t think u can expect it to switch based on federal performance where there was a massive anti labor swing in safer seats. I don’t think she would have a huge following people will probably be familiar with the name but that won’t translate to votes especially in this election climate

Comments are closed.