Lowan – Victoria 2014

NAT 21.9%

Incumbent MP
Hugh Delahunty, since 2002. Previously Member for Wimmera 1999-2002.

Geography
Western Victoria. It covers the towns of Casterton, Coleraine, Dartmoor, Dimboola, Hamilton, Horsham, Jeparit, Kaniva, Nhill and Rainbow. Lowan covers western parts of Victoria along the South Australian border, covering Hindmarsh, Horsham, Southern Grampians and West Wimmera local government areas, and parts of Ararat, Glenelg, Moyne, Northern Grampians and Yarriambiack local government areas.

Map of Lowan's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Lowan’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Lowan gained areas on its eastern border from Ripon and Swan Hill, including Warracknabeal, and lost a small area in the south-east to Polwarth. These changes cut the Nationals margin slightly from 22.1% to 21.9%.

History
Lowan was first created as an electoral district in 1889. It has existed for most of the last 121 years, with the exception of two periods when the seat was abolished for a decade before being restored, from 1945-1955 and from 1992-2002. Apart from a few periods of the seat going to the Liberals in the 1960s and 1970s, the seat has been held by the Country/National Party since 1920.

Jim McGrath of the Liberal Party won the seat in 1964, the first non-Country Party member since 1920. He held the seat for one term, losing in 1967 to the Country Party’s Ray Buckley, but he won the seat back in 1970. McCabe held the seat until his defeat in 1979.

The seat was won in 1979 by the Nationals’ Bill McGrath. He moved to the seat of Wimmera when Lowan was abolished in a redistribution. He served as a minister in the Kennett government from 1992 to 1999, and retired at the 1999 election.

Wimmera was won in 1999 by Hugh Delahunty, who won Lowan in 2002 when Wimmera was abolished. Delahunty was re-elected in 2006 and 2010.

Candidates
Sitting Nationals MP Hugh Delahunty is not running for re-election.

  1. Nkandu Beltz (Greens)
  2. Steve Price (Country Alliance)
  3. Katrina Rainsford (Independent)
  4. Emma Kealy (Nationals)
  5. Bob Scates (Labor)

Assessment
Lowan is a very safe Nationals seat.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Hugh Delahunty Nationals 23,702 67.42 +19.75 65.82
Mandy Kirsopp Labor 7,783 22.14 -0.23 22.44
Ben Wilkie Greens 1,966 5.59 +1.34 5.68
Randall Reimer Family First 1,704 4.85 +1.5 4.77
Liberal 1.19
Country Alliance 0.10

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Hugh Delahunty Nationals 25,337 72.08 71.90
Mandy Kirsopp Labor 9,812 27.92 28.10
Polling places in Lowan at the 2010 Victorian state election. Horsham in yellow, North in blue, South in green, West in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Lowan at the 2010 Victorian state election. Horsham in yellow, North in blue, South in green, West in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Lowan have been divided into four areas:

  • Horsham – Rural City of Horsham, including the biggest urban centre in the electorate.
  • North – Hindmarsh and Yarriambiack shires.
  • South – Ararat, Glenelg and Southern Grampians shires.
  • West – West Wimmera Shire.

The Nationals won a large majority, ranging from 66.6% in the south to 81.4% in the west.

Voter group FF % GRN % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
South 5.04 6.59 66.55 10,825 27.30
Horsham 4.75 5.49 74.21 7,615 19.21
North 4.56 4.24 75.62 6,138 15.48
West 4.62 3.40 81.43 2,383 6.01
Other votes 4.67 6.15 70.67 12,688 32.00
Two-party-preferred votes in Lowan at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Lowan at the 2010 Victorian state election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. I’d expect those two Labor booths, and 53% National booth to swing to the Nats this time, as they used to be in Ripon.

  2. Katrina Rainsford was the Lib candidate in 2006. She got 22.4%, just five votes behind Labor.

    It’s weird that there isn’t an endorsed Lib candidate, with the sitting Nat MP retiring. There was one in Mallee last year under the same circumstances.

  3. Katrina Rainsford would be right in the mix if she had a chat to labor , a marginal seat is what we need here!

  4. Regarding no Lib candidate, the Victorian Coalition agreement is that parties do not contest each other’s seats even if there isn’t a sitting MP, so theoretically three-cornered contests should only take place in Labor- or independent-held seats. The Euroa kerfuffle is because the Liberals are claiming that it is a new seat rather than a replacement which they believe entitles them to run under the same agreement. The Nats are presumably using the same logic to go up against a sitting Liberal MP in Eildon (although also in retaliation, I’m sure).

Comments are closed.