Keysborough – Victoria 2014

ALP 9.5%

Incumbent MP
Martin Pakula, Member for Lyndhurst since 2013. Previously Member of the Legislative Council for Western Metropolitan region 2006-2013.

Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Keysborough covers the suburbs of Braeside, Dingley Village, Keysborough and Waterways, and parts of Noble Park, Springvale and Springvale South. Keysborough covers parts of the cities of Greater Dandenong and Kingston.

Map of Keysborough's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Keysborough’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Keysborough is partly a replacement of Lyndhurst, and the seat also includes parts of Dandenong and Mordialloc. The ALP’s margin is estimated to be 9.5%, compared to 13.9% in Lyndhurst at the 2010 election.

History
Keysborough is a new seat, replacing Lyndhurst, which was created in 2002. It was won by the ALP’s Tim Holding, who had previously been elected to Springvale in 1999, before it was abolished in the 2002 redistribution.

Holding has served as a minister in the Labor government since the 2002 election and was re-elected in 2006.

At the 2010 election, Holding held on to his seat, although the margin was cut from 21.5% to less than 14%. Holding served as Shadow Treasurer until he resigned in February 2013.

The 2013 Lyndhurst by-election was won by Martin Pakula, who had represented Western Metropolitan region in the Legislative Council since 2006. Pakula had previously served as a minister from 2008 until Labor lost power in 2010.

Candidates

  1. Martin Pakula (Labor)
  2. Andrew Cunningham (Rise Up Australia)
  3. Adrianne Fleming (Liberal)
  4. Susan Fyfield (Greens)
  5. Hung Vo (Independent)
  6. Michael Carty (Independent)

Assessment
Keysborough is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

2010 election result – Lyndhurst

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Tim Holding Labor 19,820 55.47 -9.82 50.62
Tony Holland Liberal 9,946 27.83 +5.14 33.22
Nina Springle Greens 2,191 6.13 +1.72 6.17
Heather Wheatley Family First 1,744 4.88 -1.54 3.91
Hung Vo Independent 1,277 3.57 +3.57 3.31
Yien Wang Democratic Labor 444 1.24 +1.24 1.40
Gordon Ford Independent 311 0.87 -0.31 0.60
Sex Party 0.44
Other independents 0.32

2010 two-party-preferred result – Lyndhurst

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Tim Holding Labor 22,912 63.91 -7.57 59.50
Tony Holland Liberal 12,941 36.09 +7.57 40.50

2013 by-election result – Lyndhurst

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Martin Pakula Labor 12,844 40.98 -14.49
Stephen Nowland Family First 4,431 14.14 +9.26
Geraldine Gonsalvez Democratic Labor 3,447 11.00 +9.76
Hung Vo Independent 3,058 9.76 +6.18
Nina Springle Greens 2,946 9.40 +3.27
Martin Leahy Sex Party 2,623 8.37 +8.37
David Linaker Independent 1,358 4.33 +4.33
Bobby Singh Independent 636 2.03 +2.03

2013 by-election two-party-preferred result – Lyndhurst

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Martin Pakula Labor 17,878 57.04
Stephen Nowland Family First 13,465 42.96
Polling places in Keysborough at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, North in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Keysborough at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, North in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

2010 election breakdown
Booths in the new seat of Keysborough have been divided into three areas: east, north and west. The ‘west’ includes booths both in the former seats of Lyndhurst and Mordialloc, while the other areas are entirely within the former seat of Lyndhurst (and a small part of Dandenong).

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.1% in the west to 68.3% in the north.

Voter group LIB 2PP % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
West 48.86 51.14 8,780 25.44
East 36.48 63.52 8,479 24.57
North 31.70 68.30 7,420 21.50
Other votes 44.63 55.37 9,831 28.49
Polling places at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election. Hampton Park in blue, Keysborough in green, Springvale in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election. Hampton Park in blue, Keysborough in green, Springvale in orange. Click to enlarge.

2013 by-election breakdown – Lyndhurst
Booths in Lyndhurst at the 2013 by-election have been divided into Springvale and Keysborough in the north, and Hampton Park in the south. Hampton Park covers areas no longer part of this electorate.

The ALP came first, with a primary vote ranging from 39.7% in Springvale to 41.4% in Hampton Park.

Family First came second, with a vote ranging from 13.9% in Springvale to 19.3% in Hampton Park. The DLP came third, with a vote ranging from 7.6% in Springvale to 12.2% in Hampton Park.

Independent candidate Hung Vo, who came fourth, polled 17.8% in Springvale compared to only 2% in Hampton Park.

Voter group DLP % FF % ALP % Total % of votes
Springvale 7.63 13.93 39.74 7,680 24.25
Keysborough 9.19 14.92 40.52 7,608 24.02
Hampton Park 12.17 19.34 41.38 5,662 17.88
Other Votes 14.07 11.12 41.59 10,721 33.85
Two-party-preferred votes in Keysborough at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Keysborough at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Labor primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Labor primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Family First primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Family First primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Democratic Labor Party primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Democratic Labor Party primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Hung Vo at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Hung Vo at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.

3 COMMENTS

  3. On the new boundaries, Hung Vo should do pretty well. All his bad areas have been hived off to other seats. Albeit it was a by-election, but he clearly has some sort of presence in Springvale and Noble Park, which are now the main focus of the seat.

    Dingley Village (the two big strong Liberal booths) is such a demographic outlier in this seat.

Comments are closed.