Geelong – Victoria 2014

ALP 4.0%

Incumbent MP
Ian Trezise, since 1999.

Geography
Inner suburbs of Geelong. Geelong covers the Geelong city centre, as well as the suburbs of Belmont, Fyansford, Manifold Heights, Newcomb and St Albans Park.

Map of Geelong's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Geelong’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Geelong shifted south, losing Hamlyn Heights and Drumcondra to Lara on its northern boundary, and losing parts of Highton to South Barwon. In exchange, Geelong gained Belmont from South Barwon and Newcomb, Whittington and St Albans Park from Bellarine. These changes increased the Labor margin from 2.1% to 4.0%.

History
There has been an electoral district named Geelong in the Legislative Assembly for most of the Assembly’s existence. It existed as a four-member district from 1856 to 1859, then as a three-member district from 1877 to 1889, then as a two-member district from 1889 to 1904.

The single-member district existed from 1904 until 1976, and again since 1985. The seat long alternated between Labor and the Liberal/Nationalist parties. Since 1952 it has always been held by the party in government.

The newly created seat of Geelong was won in 1985 by the ALP’s Hayden Shell. He had held the seat of Geelong West since 1982. He held Geelong until 1992, when he was defeated by Ann Henderson of the Liberal Party.

Henderson was re-elected in 1996, but in 1999 she narrowly lost to the ALP’s Ian Trezise, who won a 0.03% margin, after gaining a 3.5% swing.

The 2002 redistribution made Geelong a notional Liberal seat, but Trezise gained an 8.6% swing. In 2006 Trezise increased his margin from 8.1% to 8.3%. Trezise’s margin was cut to only 2.1% in 2010.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Ian Trezise is not running for re-election.

  1. Pedro Pegan (Shooters and Fishers)
  2. Tony Leen (Country Alliance)
  3. Sarah Hathway (Socialist Alliance)
  4. Doug Mann (Independent)
  5. Paula Kontelj (Liberal)
  6. Bruce Lindsay (Greens)
  7. Ruth Clark (Family First)
  8. Christine Couzens (Labor)

Assessment
Geelong’s 4% margin makes the seat quite marginal. The loss of the sitting Labor MP’s personal vote may make Labor’s position slightly precarious, but statewide trends should ensure Labor holds on.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Alastair Thomson Liberal 15,472 43.01 +7.66 39.89
Ian Trezise Labor 14,809 41.17 -7.82 42.72
Bruce Lindsay Greens 4,131 11.48 +2.38 10.53
Len Lengyel Family First 688 1.91 -2.92 2.15
Samantha Schultz Independent 444 1.23 +1.23 0.72
Matthew Schmidt Country Alliance 430 1.20 +1.2 1.45
Democratic Labor 1.08
Socialist Alliance 0.22
Other independents 1.24

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Ian Trezise Labor 18,757 52.14 -6.19 54.00
Alastair Thomson Liberal 17,217 47.86 +6.19 46.00
Polling places in Geelong at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Geelong at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Geelong have been divided into three parts: East, North and South. Those polling places in ‘South’ covers the area around Belmont on the south side of the river which was previously included in South Barwon.

The ALP won a slim 51.2% two-party-preferred majority in the north and a larger 62.5% in the east, while the Liberal Party won a 51.8% majority in the south.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8.2% in the east to 12.8% in the north.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 12.77 51.19 13,380 33.67
East 8.24 62.52 9,777 24.60
South 8.75 48.24 8,220 20.68
Other votes 11.38 55.60 8,365 21.05
Two-party-preferred votes in Geelong at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Geelong at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Geelong at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Geelong at the 2010 Victorian state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. The redistribution means that this seat gains very Labor friendly areas in the east (typical working class suburbia consisting of residents and their families who have lived there for decades) that don’t have a tendency to swing very heavily against Labor. Not in recent elections anyway.

    Labor should hold with a swing towards. The Labor candidate works for the outgoing MLA (and she, like the current MLA, is a very community-minded independent-esque type of person) – she shouldn’t have any trouble cleaning up Trezise’s personal vote.

  2. As a former resident of eastern suburbs of Geelong would agree with previous. Liberal candidate is a radio presenter & dance teacher, she has married into Kontelj family who have a strong profile in local politics two brothers hold wards in usually Labor northern suburbs, but her husband wasn’t able to win this seat in 2002. Geelong voters grumpy about infrastructure in 2010 and are still grumpy I think

  4. Yep, Doug Mann is running for this seat as an independent. Announced his intention today on his Facebook page linked above.

    “IT’S OFFICIAL: I will be running as a candidate for the state electorate of Geelong in the upcoming November 29 Victorian state election. I am independent and I am dedicated to putting Geelong first.” …And so it goes on.

    I did letterboxing for Doug during last year’s mayoral election. Sadly, he didn’t get up then. I don’t expect him to get up at this election. However Doug, being a progressive independent in the running, will surely cement Christine Couzens’ for the hold/gain of the seat.

  5. Crikey reports Geelong region to not change other then Bellarine overcoming the notional margin and staying labor and South Barwon labor coming short

Comments are closed.