Eildon – Victoria 2014

LIB 7.7%

Incumbent MP
Cindy McLeish, Member for Seymour since 2010.

Geography
Northern Victoria. Eildon covers rural areas immediately to the north-east of Melbourne, including Mansfield, Healesville, Warburton, Yea and Yarra Glen. Eildon covers the entirety of Mansfield Shire and Murrindindi Shire, and parts of Nillumbik and Yarra Ranges council areas.

Map of Eildon's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Eildon’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Eildon is effectively a new electorate, created out of parts of four former electorates: Benalla, Gembrook, Seymour and Yan Yean. Seymour was abolished, and Eildon took in a large part of that electorate. While Seymour was held with a Liberal margin of only 1.2%, the new seat has a Liberal margin of 7.7%.

History
Eildon is a new electorate, but partly replaces the former electorate of Seymour.

Seymour was first created as an electoral district in 1992. It was won in 1992 by Marie Tehan. She had served as a Liberal Member of the Legislative Council for Central Highlands province since 1987. She served as a minister in the Kennett government until her retirement in 1999.

In 1999, the ALP’s Ben Hardman won Seymour by a narrow margin. He was re-elected with a 9.5% margin in 2002 and again re-elected in 2006 with a slightly smaller margin.

In 2010, Labor MP Ben Hardman lost to Liberal candidate Cindy McLeish.

Candidates

  1. Jeff Leake (Country Alliance)
  2. David Prentice (Family First)
  3. Bruce Argyle (Independent)
  4. Marie Sellstrom (Greens)
  5. Sally Brennan (Labor)
  6. Jim Child (Nationals)
  7. Jane Judd (Independent)
  8. Cindy McLeish (Liberal)

Assessment
While Eildon is a notional Liberal seat, the electorate is new, and includes areas with a substantial vote for the Nationals. The Liberal Party’s Cindy McLeish is the favourite to hold the seat but the result could be unpredictable.

2010 election result – Seymour

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Cindy McLeish Liberal 12,992 35.63 -2.80 30.71
Ben Hardman Labor 12,813 35.14 -11.28 28.33
Jan Beer Independent 3,738 10.25 +10.25 6.08
Huw Slater Greens 3,230 8.86 -0.47 11.35
Adam Taurian Country Alliance 1,587 4.35 +4.35 4.60
Anthony Rolando Nationals 1,391 3.81 +3.81 15.52
Robert Guerra Family First 711 1.95 -1.38 1.88
Democratic Labor 0.31
Other independents 1.22

2010 two-party-preferred result – Seymour

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Cindy McLeish Liberal 18,680 51.23 +7.9 57.71
Ben Hardman Labor 17,782 48.77 -7.90 42.29
Polling places in Eildon at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, North in orange, South-East in yellow, South-West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Eildon at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, North in orange, South-East in yellow, South-West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Eildon have been divided into four parts. Polling places in Murrindindi Shire have been grouped as Central, and those in Mansfield Shire have been grouped as North. Polling places in the remainder of the seat were split into south-east and south-west.

The Coalition won the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 52% in south-west and south-east to 76% in the north. The Nationals were the primary Coalition party in the north of the electorate.

The Greens vote ranged from 7.6% in Central to 14.8% in the South-West.

Voter group GRN % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
South-West 14.81 51.98 8,902 25.60
South-East 9.90 52.08 7,333 21.09
Central 7.58 60.18 6,621 19.04
North 8.62 76.10 3,887 11.18
Other votes 13.29 58.32 8,029 23.09
Two-party-preferred votes in Eildon at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Eildon at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Eildon at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Eildon at the 2010 Victorian state election.

2 COMMENTS

  2. Presumably Eildon is not being vigorously contested by Labor, as opposed to 2010 when they had incumbents in Seymour and Gembrook. I reckon Eildon will buck the expected pro-Labor state swing and become safer for the Libs.

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