Box Hill – Victoria 2014

LIB 9.4%

Incumbent MP
Robert Clark, since 1992.

Geography
Eastern Melbourne. The electorate covers the suburbs of Blackburn, Box Hill, Box Hill North, Mont Albert, Mont Albert North and parts of Balwyn, Canterbury, Nunawading and Surrey Hills. Box Hill covers parts of the cities of Boroondara and Whitehorse.

Map of Box Hill's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Box Hill’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Box Hill shifted east, gaining Blackburn and parts of Nunawading from Mitcham, losing parts of Canterbury and Surrey Hills to Burwood and Hawthorn, and losing Balwyn North to Kew. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 13.8% to 9.4%.

History
Box Hill was created in 1945, and has been dominated by the Liberal Party, although it has been won by the ALP at a few elections.

The seat was first won in 1945 by the ALP’s Robert Gray. Gray had held the seat of Nunawading since a 1943 by-election. He held Box Hill for one term, losing in 1947 to George Reid of the Liberal Party.

Reid held the seat until 1952, when he lost again to Gray. Reid finally defeated Gray in 1955, and held the seat until his retirement in 1973. He served as a minister in the Liberal state government continuously from 1955 to 1973.

Morris Williams, also from the Liberal Party, won Box Hill in 1973. In 1976 he moved to the new seat of Doncaster, holding it until his retirement in 1988.

The Liberal Party’s Donald Mackinnon won Box Hill in 1973. He held the seat until 1982, when he was defeated by Margaret Ray of the ALP. Ray was re-elected in 1985 and 1988.

In 1992, a redistribution abolished the neighbouring seat of Balwyn, the sitting Liberal member for Balwyn, Robert Clark, challenged Ray in Box Hill, with the Liberals prevailing.

Clark served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the second term of the Kennett government and joined the Liberal frontbench after the 1999 election. Clark has served as Attorney-General since the 2010 election.

Candidates

  1. Frank Reale (Australian Christians)
  2. Stefanie Perri (Labor)
  3. Bill Pemberton (Greens)
  4. Geoffrey Stokie (Independent)
  5. Robert Clark (Liberal)

Assessment
Box Hill is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Robert Clark Liberal 20,415 58.31 +8.82 53.50
Peter Chandler Labor 8,978 25.64 -7.11 28.85
Timothy Baxter Greens 4,952 14.14 +0.03 14.25
Gary Ong Family First 666 1.90 -0.76 1.91
Sex Party 0.91
Democratic Labor 0.57

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Robert Clark Liberal 22,346 63.80 +8.58 59.35
Peter Chandler Labor 12,677 36.20 -8.58 40.65
Polling places in Box Hill at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, East in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Box Hill at the 2010 Victorian state election. Central in green, East in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Box Hill have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.

The Liberal Party won a majority in all three areas, ranging from 52.4% in the east to 67.6% in the west.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 13.4% in the east to 15.1% in the west.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
Central 13.79 57.01 9,345 24.15
East 13.44 52.35 9,285 24.00
West 15.08 67.59 8,314 21.49
Other votes 14.66 60.91 11,744 30.36
Two-party-preferred votes in Box Hill at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Box Hill at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Box Hill at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Box Hill at the 2010 Victorian state election.

2 COMMENTS

  1. This would have been Labor held on these boundaries in 2002. It’s lost part of its blue-ribbon Liberal heartland, and taken in more mixed areas further east.

    Since Mitcham was a tightly-fought marginal, and Box Hill will see a less vigorous Labor campaign, I’d expect those booths in the east to do better (relatively) for the Liberals this time around.

  2. I don’t know if libs would necesarily do better but sophmore surge and this being a safer seat for the libs then a bentleigh so maybe the swing in the east would be less then the safer western booths

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