Bendigo West – Victoria 2014

ALP 3.1%

Incumbent MP
Maree Edwards, since 2010.

Geography
North-western Victoria. Bendigo West covers the western and southern suburbs of Bendigo, as well as areas to the south of Bendigo, including Castlemaine, Maldon and Newstead. Bendigo West covers parts of the City of Greater Bendigo, and a majority of Mount Alexander Shire.

Map of Bendigo West's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Bendigo West’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Bendigo West lost rural areas on its eastern and western flanks to Macedon and Ripon respectively. The electorate also gained Marong from Bendigo East on its northern boundary. Antony Green estimates that these changes increase the Labor margin against the Nationals from 2.9% to 3.1%. The ALP margin against the Liberal Party increases from 8% to 8.2%.

History
Bendigo West previously existed as a state electorate from 1904 to 1927. It was restored in 1985, and in that time has been won by the ALP at all but one election.

The restored seat was won in 1985 by the ALP’s David Kennedy. He had previously won the federal seat of Bendigo at a 1969 by-election and was the only federal Labor MP to lose their seat at the 1972 election. He later won the state seat of Bendigo in 1982 and moved to the new seat of Bendigo West in 1985.

Kennedy was defeated in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Max Turner. Turner held the seat for one term before losing to the ALP’s Bob Cameron in 1996.

Cameron has won re-election in 1999, 2002 and 2006, and served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1999 until 2010.

Cameron retired in 2010, and Labor candidate Maree Edwards was re-elected in Bendigo West.

In 2006, the ALP won with a 10.6% margin over the Liberal Party. In 2010, the Liberal vote dropped from 29.2% to 20%, while the Nationals jumped from 6.3% to 21.7%. The ALP’s margin was over 5% less against the Nationals than it would have been against the Liberal Party.

Candidates

  1. Amanda Moskalewicz (Family First)
  2. Michael Langdon (Liberal)
  3. Maree Edwards (Labor)
  4. John Brownstein (Greens)
  5. Sandra Caddy (Rise Up Australia)
  6. Elise Chapman (Country Alliance)

Assessment
Bendigo West is a very marginal electorate, but is particularly marginal if the leading Coalition candidate is from the Nationals. At the moment the Nationals have not nominated a candidate, which could suggest that the Liberal Party will be the main rival for the ALP in 2014.

Maree Edwards should benefit from a new personal vote, and if there is a swing to the ALP across Victoria, she should be able to hold on.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Maree Edwards Labor 14,431 39.34 -9.12 39.65
Steven Oliver Nationals 7,965 21.71 +15.41 21.51
Anita Donlon Liberal 7,343 20.02 -9.16 20.03
Sue-Ellen Radford Greens 3,999 10.90 -0.07 10.73
Trevor Phillips Country Alliance 1,328 3.62 +3.62 3.63
Frances Wintle Family First 671 1.83 -3.25 1.86
Sandra Caddy Democratic Labor 584 1.59 +1.59 1.61
Anne Foster Christian Democrats 361 0.98 +0.98 0.95
Sex Party 0.03

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Maree Edwards Labor 19,417 52.93 53.10
Steven Oliver Nationals 17,265 47.07 46.90
Polling places in Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election. Bendigo Central in yellow, Bendigo South in green, Bendigo West in blue, Mount Alexander in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election. Bendigo Central in yellow, Bendigo South in green, Bendigo West in blue, Mount Alexander in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Bendigo West have been divided into three parts. Those polling places in Mount Alexander Shire, including a number of polling places in Castlemaine, have been grouped together as Mount Alexander.

Polling places in the City of Greater Bendigo have been split into three parts: Central, South and West. Those polling places in the Bendigo urban area have been grouped as “Bendigo Central”. While there are a large number of polling places in Bendigo Central, they are all relatively small polling places.

In 2010, the National Party came second in the two-party-preferred vote, but the two-party-preferred vote in each polling place was conducted between Labor and the Liberal Party. Because of this mismatch, the following table and maps shows primary votes for the four parties that polled over 10%.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote against the Liberal party in all four areas, ranging from 51.2% in Bendigo West to 62.1% in Bendigo Central.

The ALP topped the primary vote in all four areas, with a primary vote ranging from 35.1% in Mount Alexander to 45.8% in Bendigo Central.

The National Party’s vote ranged from 16.9% in Bendigo Central to 24.5% in Bendigo West. The Nationals outpolled the Liberal Party in three out of four areas, while the Liberal Party came second in Bendigo Central. The Liberal Party’s primary vote ranged from 15.3% in Mount Alexander to 24.2% in Bendigo West. The Liberal Party polled most highly in Bendigo South and Bendigo West, but these areas were also strong for the Nationals, so the Liberal Party came third in these areas.

The Greens vote ranged form 4.7% in Bendigo West to 19.4% in Mount Alexander. The Greens did particularly well in Castlemaine, outpolling the Liberal Party.

Voter group ALP % NAT % LIB % GRN % Total % of votes
Mount Alexander 35.11 24.34 15.27 19.39 8,666 24.37
Bendigo South 41.71 22.94 21.40 5.57 7,672 21.57
Bendigo Central 45.83 16.88 19.59 8.49 6,749 18.98
Bendigo West 36.86 24.53 24.15 4.68 3,139 8.83
Other votes 38.63 20.03 22.24 10.59 9,337 26.25
Labor primary votes in Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Labor primary votes in Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Nationals primary votes in Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Nationals primary votes in Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Liberal primary votes in Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Liberal primary votes in Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Labor primary votes in the urban Bendigo parts of Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Labor primary votes in the urban Bendigo parts of Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Nationals primary votes in the urban Bendigo parts of Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Nationals primary votes in the urban Bendigo parts of Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Liberal primary votes in the urban Bendigo parts of Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Liberal primary votes in the urban Bendigo parts of Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in the urban Bendigo parts of Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in the urban Bendigo parts of Bendigo West at the 2010 Victorian state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. My understanding is Nats definitely not running here apparently in exchange for getting a free run in Lowan. Seen articles about how Coalition is focusing on the bush but not running Nat here contradicts these reports.

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