Tarneit – Victoria 2010

ALP 12.5%

Incumbent MP
Tim Pallas, since 2006.

Geography
South-Western Melbourne. Tarneit covers suburbs in Wyndham City including Tarneit, Werribee South and parts of Hoppers Crossing and Werribee.

History
Tarneit has only existed as an electoral district since 2002, and it has been won by the ALP at both the 2002 and 2006 election.

Tarneit was won in 2002 by Mary Gillett. She had previously won the seat of Werribee in 1996 and 1999, but her seat was abolished for the 2002 election.

Gillett was defeated for preselection before the 2006 election by Tim Pallas, former chief of staff to Premier Steve Bracks. Pallas serves as Minister for Roads and Ports and Minister for Major Events.

Candidates

Political situation
Tarneit is reasonably safe for the ALP.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Pallas ALP 19,565 53.40 -10.14
Mark Rose LIB 10,094 27.55 -0.51
Chris Harrison FF 2,339 6.38 +6.38
Pamela Boyd GRN 2,336 6.38 +6.38
John Gibbons IND 1,726 4.71 +4.71
Michael Goldsworthy PP 576 1.57 +1.57

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Pallas ALP 22,879 62.47 -4.93
Mark Rose LIB 13,747 37.53 +4.93

Booth breakdown
Booths in Tarneit have been broken into four areas: east, west, north, and those in the suburb of Werribee.

The ALP polled around 64-66% in the three northern areas, but less than 52% in Werribee. Family First only polled three more votes than the Greens across the seat. Family First narrowly outpolled the Greens in the east, west and north, but the  Greens strongly outpolled Family First in Werribee.

 

Polling booths in Werribee at the 2006 state election. West in blue, East in yellow, North in orange, Werribee in green.
Voter group GRN % FF % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
East 5.36 6.50 64.79 8,643 23.60
West 6.19 6.55 66.40 7,920 21.62
North 6.59 7.16 65.39 7,204 19.67
Werribee 7.45 4.73 51.88 5,551 15.16
Other votes 6.76 6.55 60.60 7,308 19.95
Two-party-preferred votes in Tarneit at the 2006 state election.

14 COMMENTS

  1. That Werribee South booth (66% Liberal) is a semi-rural market gardens area, very different in nature from the outer suburban character of the rest of the seat.

    One of the more surprising results of 1996 was the Liberals coming within 1% of winning this seat’s predecessor, Werribee. I think there were some pre-selection problems with Gillett combined with the popularity of Kennett in Melbourne.

  2. In 1996 the right pushed out sitting Labor MP Ken Coghill in the name of renewal, but the new candidate Joe Italino mysteriously pulled out just before the election ( I heard a rumour some were critical of his immigration law business) and Gillett was hastily endorsed.

  3. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Michael Freeman – DLP
    Lori McLean – Family First
    Tim Pallas – Labor
    Glenn Goodfellow – Liberal
    Bro Sheffield-Brotherton – Greens

  4. As a local I should note that McLean (FF) is actually reasonably promintent in local affairs without previously being a councillor, so should carry some form of personal vote that Harrison didn’t carry last time, helping to at least improve there performance 1-2%

  6. I’m sure it would be a complete coincidence that the DLP are top of the ballot in both Tarneit and Dandenong, eh Tony? 😉

  7. Bird of paradox
    Posted November 28, 2010 at 7:53 PM
    I’m sure it would be a complete coincidence that the DLP are top of the ballot in both Tarneit and Dandenong, eh Tony?

    Yes but Family first also sat in that seat and received an increase in vote. In fact the combined vote (9.4%)was greater than the greens and the combined vote increased by 3.1%.
    Now the donkey at best (although descredited these days) would be only 1%.

    .

  10. Doug
    Posted November 30, 2010 at 2:04 PM
    Long and interesting discussion on the donkey vote and the Green vote at Possums Pollytics fairly recently
    .
    Here’s a little note I sent to our younger members before heading to Vic last week.

    To our Junior Members – Notes from the Secretary

    As I head south for the Victorian election in which the DLP have nominated over 65 candidates i would like to remind the young voters who care for their the country of the following terminologies.

    Donkey Vote: Means when you number the squares from the top to the bottom in order IE: 1 2 3 4 etc

    Reverse Donkey: is when the last on the list gets the first I:E: 7, 6 5, 4, 3 etc.

    The Mule voter: That is when a voter votes for a major Party on the pretence of his father or mother I:E: My father/mother voted ALP so I will vote the same or my mum and dad voted liberal so I wil vote the same.

    The thinking voter: Is the voter that loves his country and wants a real choice,He/She places her vote with the minor of her/his choice and places the major party of their choice 2nd.This way democracy is kept alive… your vote is not wasted… and you have a real say.

    Regards Tony Zegenhagen – Democratic labor Party (DLP)

    .

  11. Interesting that this as well as neighbouring Melton bucked the trend of big swings to the Coalition in outer suburbia. Similar safe Labor western suburbs seats like Altona, Keilor, Derrimut, and Kororoit all swung by 7-10% to the Liberals, but Tarneit and Melton only went about 1%.

    Wonder why?

  12. The growth in Tarneit has a much lower socio-economic base than the growth in Point Cook which is driving up enrolements in Altona. I would assume that the story in Melton is simular, and that the Caroline Springs area (Kororoit) attracts a a slightly richer resident that most western suburbs developments. Therefore it’s my thinking, without looking at booth results that it’s the change in enrolment that is causing the swings in the west, especially considering voters west of Sunshine saw no evidence of campaigning at all.

  14. Where’s the DLP? Suddenly gone from this site until the NSW election? Jesus’s little helpers, to discriminate against homosexuals!

Comments are closed.