LIB 4.0%
Incumbent MP
Denis Napthine, since 2002. Previously Member for Portland 1988-2002.
Geography
South-Western Victoria. This seat covers the South Australian border and the western end of Victoria’s southern coast. It covers the towns of Warrnambool, Portland, Port Fairy, and Macarthur. South-West Coast covers the City of Warrnambool and a majority of the Shire of Moyne and the Shire of Glenelg.
History
South-West Coast was created at the 2002 election, replacing the abolished seats of Portland and Warrnambool.
At the 2002 election it was won by former Liberal leader Denis Napthine. He had been Member for Portland since 1988, and Minister for Youth and Community Services in the second term of the Kennett government. He was elected leader of the Liberal Party following Kennett’s defeat in 1999, and led the party until 2002, when he was replaced by Robert Doyle as Liberal leader months before the 2002 state election.
At the 2002 election, Napthine moved to the new seat of South-West Coast, holding it with a 0.7% margin despite a large swing to the ALP. He was re-elected with a larger margin in 2006 and currently serves as Shadow Minister for Ports, Racing and Regional and Rural Development.
Candidates
- Denis Napthine (Liberal)
- Jack Howard (Greens)
- Craig Haberfield (Family First)
- John Herbertson (Labor)
- Tony Arscott (Country Alliance)
- James Purcell (Independent)
Political situation
South-West Coast is a marginal seat, but Napthine should be able to retain it.
2006 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Denis Napthine | LIB | 16,754 | 45.30 | +5.00 |
| Roy Reekie | ALP | 14,172 | 38.32 | -2.93 |
| Phoebe Adams | GRN | 1,991 | 5.38 | -1.61 |
| David O’Brien | NAT | 1,566 | 4.23 | -7.23 |
| Barry Wilson | FF | 1,257 | 3.40 | +3.40 |
| Mike Noske | PP | 1,241 | 3.36 | +3.36 |
2006 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Denis Napthine | LIB | 19,982 | 54.01 | +3.27 |
| Roy Reekie | ALP | 17,018 | 45.99 | -3.27 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in South-West Coast have been divided between the three local government areas covering the electorate. A majority of regular votes were cast in the City of Warrnambool, with the remainder split almost exactly equally between Glenelg and Moyne.
The Liberals won a majority in all areas, winning a slim majority in Warrnambool and Glenelg, and a majority of over 60% in the Moyne area.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Warrnambool | 5.70 | 52.68 | 14,284 | 38.61 |
| Glenelg | 3.91 | 51.10 | 5,883 | 15.90 |
| Moyne | 5.90 | 60.59 | 5,879 | 15.89 |
| Other votes | 5.48 | 53.76 | 10,954 | 29.61 |
Warnambool has the advantage of lying at the far end of the Great Ocean Road, so is a major tourism and service centre. Portland on the other hand has a strong industrial component with its large aluminium smelter, plus a large fishing industry. The rest of the seat is solid Western Districts; rural and conservative.
Napthine is best known for his impotent term as Opposition Leader, but he must be doing something right locally to hold on here in two close contests. There was widespread talk that he was going to lose his seat before the 2002 and 2006 elections.
Moyne Mayor James Purcell, who contested Wannon at the recent federal election, is also in the running here.
Purcell got 5.6% in Wannon, and another local councillor (from Southern Grampians, which I’m guessing is in Lowan) got 4.9%. Not much to see there.
The coastal towns are simply too conservative for Labor to win this. The small Labor majorities on the coast are swamped by the inland vote. Even the low income parts of Warrnambool such as the east are not the type of Labor strongholds they are elsewhere.
This could be won by labor. It needs to spend a bit of money on the campaign. Napthine (known locally as Dr Dolittle) is the toothless tiger, lots of talk no action.
Candidates in ballot paper order are:
Denis Napthine – Liberal
Jack Howard – Greens
Craig Haberfield – Family First
John Herbertson – Labor
Tony Arscott – Country Alliance
James Purcell –
James Purcell did moderately OK here… a tick over 10%, not bad for an independent, but then not that earth-shattering either considering what some local mayors manage to do every now and again. His best result was Port Fairy: 26.0%, compared to 38.1% for Liberals and 19.9% for Labor, so he quite possibly won that booth. He also got 30.4% at Orford, but there were only 102 people voting there so it probably doesn’t mean much.