Oakleigh – Victoria 2010

ALP 12.4%

Incumbent MP
Ann Barker, since 1999.

Geography
 Southern Melbourne. Oakleigh covers northeastern parts of Glen Eira council and western parts of Monash council. Oakleigh covers the suburbs of Carnegie, Murrumbeena and Oakleigh and parts of the suburbs of Chadstone, Glenhuntly, Glen Waverley, Hughesdale, Mount Waverley and Ormond.

History
Oakleigh has existed since the 1927 election. The seat has alternated between the Labor Party and the Liberal Party, and it has been held by the party that formed government continuously since 1982, which makes it the longest-running bellwether seat in the Victorian Legislative Assembly. The seat has always been marginal, and every change in MP has taken place when the sitting MP was defeated for re-election.

The seat was first won in 1927 by the ALP’s Squire Reid. he held the seat until his defeat in 1932 by Vinton Smith, an unendorsed Liberal candidate. Smith held the seat until 1937, when Reid defeated him again. Reid held the seat until 1947.

Reid was defeated in 1947 by Liberal candidate John Lechte, who only held the seat for one term, losing in 1950 to the ALP’s Van Doube.

Doube held the seat until 1961, when he lost his seat. He later held the seat of Albert Park from 1970 to 1979.

Oakleigh’s longest serving MP was the Liberal Party’s Alan Scanlan, who held the seat from 1961 to 1979. He was defeated in 1979 by Race Mathews.

Mathews had been a federal Labor MP from 1972 to 1975, and served as a minister in the Cain state Labor government from 1982 to 1988.

Mathews was defeated in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Denise McGill, then Mayor of Oakleigh. McGill held Oakleigh until her defeat in 1999. She currently serves as a Monash City councillor.

McGill was defeated in 1999 by Ann Barker, who had previously been the ALP Member for Bentleigh from 1988 to 1992. Barker has served as Deputy Speaker of the Legislative Assembly since 2006.

Candidates

Political situation
The ALP now holds Oakleigh by a relatively large margin of over 12%. Having said that, the seat has a long history of flipping, and could swing significantly if a swing is on to the Liberal Party.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ann Barker ALP 15,232 49.84 -4.41
Colin Dixon LIB 10,238 33.50 +2.37
Matthew Billman GRN 4,142 13.55 +2.73
Joyce Khoo FF 947 3.10 +3.10

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ann Barker ALP 19,031 62.37 +2.84
Colin Dixon LIB 11,481 37.63 -2.84

Booth breakdown
Booths in Bentleigh have been divided into two areas. Carnegie, covering those booths in Glen Eira council at the western end of the seat, and Oakleigh, covering those booths in Monash council at the eastern end of the seat.

The ALP polled most strongly in the Oakleigh area. The Greens polled much better (with 15%) in the Carnegie area, compared to 11.7% in Oakleigh.

 

Polling booths in Oakleigh at the 2006 state election. Carnegie in blue, Oakleigh in yellow.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Carnegie 15.07 60.52 12,243 40.13
Oakleigh 11.73 65.99 11,945 39.15
Other votes 14.06 59.12 6,324 20.73
Two-party-preferred votes in Oakleigh at the 2006 state election.
Greens primary votes in Oakleigh at the 2006 state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. Another sign of how poor the Liberals have performed in the 2000s is Labor’s whopping margin in what should be a finely-balanced seat.Oakleigh itself is ethnically diverse and strongly Labor, but the suburbs further west are more affluent and Liberal-friendly.

    Labor doesn’t look like losing it, but the Liberals would want to eat into the swing, as this is the sort of seat they’d be winning when they win government.

  2. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Ann Barker – Labor
    Eleanor Whyte – Greens
    Alan Ide –
    Theo Zographos – Liberal
    George Grigas – Family First
    Matthew Grinter – DLP

Comments are closed.