Northcote – Victoria 2010

ALP vs GRN 8.5%

Incumbent MP
Fiona Richardson, since 2006.

Geography
Inner north of Melbourne. Northcote mainly covers the southern suburbs of Darebin council, as well as the northeastern arm of Yarra council. It covers the suburbs of Alphington, Fairfield, Northcote, Thornbury and parts of Preston.

History
Northcote was first created for the 1927 state election, and in that time has always been held by the ALP.

Northcote was first won in 1927 by John Cain, who had previously been the Member for Jika Jika since 1917. Cain became leader of the Victorian ALP in 1937, and led the party through extended periods of hung parliaments. He served as Premier briefly in 1943 when the Labor-supported Country Party government fell, and served as Premier for two years from 1945 to 1947, before losing the 1947 election badly.

In 1952, John Cain won the state election, and governed as Premier until 1955, when Labor MPs from the Catholic “Movement” faction crossed the floor and brought down the government. These MPs formed the basis of the Democratic Labor Party. Cain remained as leader of the ALP until his death in 1957 while campaigning for the ALP in a Queensland state election.

The 1957 Northcote by-election was won by the ALP’s Frank Wilkes. He became the ALP’s deputy leader in 1967, and became leader in 1976. He served as leader until 1981, when he was replaced by John Cain Jr, who won government in 1982. Wilkes served as a minister in the Cain government until his retirement in 1988.

In 1988, Northcote was won by Tony Sheehan, who was Member for Ivanhoe from 1982 to 1985, when he lost the seat to the Liberal Party. He served as a minister in the final years of the Labor government, serving as Treasurer in 1992 before the Liberal Party won the state election that year. He retired in 1998.

The 1998 by-election was won by former ABC newsreader Mary Delahunty. She served as a minister in the Bracks government from 1999 to 2006, when she retired.

In 2006, Northcote was won by Fiona Richardson, who currently serves as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Brumby government.

Candidates

Political situation
Northcote is not as vulnerable to the Greens as the neighbouring electorates of Melbourne, Brunswick and Richmond. But if there is a big swing to the Greens from the ALP, Northcote is definitely vulnerable. Northcote is mainly contained in the seat of Batman, which became a contest between the Labor Party and the Greens at the recent federal election, and includes a larger area, including less Green areas further north of Northcote.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Fiona Richardson ALP 17,508 52.57 -2.62
Alex Bhathal GRN 9,131 27.41 +2.00
Graham Watt LIB 5,092 15.29 +1.51
Daniel Willis FF 1,065 3.20 +3.20
Darren Lewin-Hill IND 511 1.53 +1.53

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Fiona Richardson ALP 19,484 58.52
Alex Bhathal GRN 13,813 41.48

Booth breakdown
The sixteen regular polling booths in Northcote have been divided into four areas, based on the key suburbs of Alphington, Northcote, Preston and Thornbury. The Greens polled most strongly on a two-party basis in the Northcote and Alphington areas, at the south of the seat, with 43-44% of the vote. The ALP polled better in Thornbury, with 62%, and much better with over 70% in Preston at the northern end of the seat.

Polling booths in Northcote at the 2006 state election. Alphington in red, Northcote in green, Thornbury in blue, Preston in green.
Voter group LIB % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Northcote 12.42 55.43 9,525 28.61
Thornbury 14.88 62.27 8,081 24.27
Alphington 18.84 56.43 5,444 16.35
Preston 14.55 70.67 2,523 7.58
Other votes 16.99 55.89 7,724 23.20

Note: total numbers of votes cast in primary vote figures and two-candidate-preferred figures do not always equal the same numbers. “Total votes” here is based on the two-candidate-preferred figure, but the primary vote figures are calculated from a slightly different total. Victorian Electoral Commission figures do not always match exactly.

Two-candidate-preferred votes in Northcote at the 2006 state election.
Liberal primary votes in Northcote at the 2006 state election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. Harping editorial nitpick: in the first sentence after ‘Political situation’ you’ve written Brunswick instead of Northcote.

    That aside, thank you for this – your notes were invaluable during the Federal election, and will no doubt be so here as well.

    (Especially since I’m heading to the US at the same time as you, albeit not specifically for the mid-terms, and will lose touch with a lot of the political action in November.)

  4. In the Age on Saturday the 9th of October there was a table with the 2010 Commonwealth primaries for several inner city seats and the Commonwealth ALP or Green 2CP (depending on the winner) margins for the inner 4 that are ALP versus Green and for Northcote it was 1% for the ALP.

  5. I love the Crikey rumour mill (from 2/11)

    “I am a Northcote ALP branch member and can tell you that for the past year and a bit Fiona Richardson’s head has spun Sybil-style at the very mention of the Greens. The Darebin Climate Action Network has been following her around and demanding answers regarding the closure of Hazelwood — she has incorrectly identified that non-politically aligned organisation as “the Greens” on more than one occasion.”

    “While barely anyone turns up to branch meetings these days — and never anyone under 40 except political staffers — we have never been allowed to have the critical conversation as to why Labor is bleeding so heavily to the Greens. There is no room for views that differ from the right faction of the party. Debate on Labor policy will not be tolerated.”

  8. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Anne Martinelli – Greens
    Robert Bishop – Sex Party
    Dominic Marino –
    Fiona Richardson – Labor
    Steve Moran – Liberal
    Darren Lewin-Hill –

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