Narre Warren South – Victoria 2010

ALP 10.9%

Incumbent MP
Judith Graley, since 2006.

Geography
Narre Warren South covers central parts of the City of Casey, specifically the suburbs of  Cranbourne North and Narre Warren South and parts of Beaconsfield, Berwick, Hallam, Hampton Park and Narre Warren.

History
Narre Warren South was created at the 2002 election. It was considered to be a marginal Liberal seat, but was won in 2002 by the ALP’s Dale Wilson, who gained a swing of about 14%.

Wilson lost a preselection battle to Judith Graley in 2006, and she held onto the seat, only suffering a small swing.

Candidates

Political situation
Narre Warren South has a reasonably large margin for the ALP, but has shown a propensity to produce large swings in the past.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Judith Graley ALP 21,853 52.82 -5.48
Michael Shepherdson LIB 13,993 33.82 -1.82
Bronwyn Rawlins FF 2,870 6.94 +6.94
Meg Tanti GRN 2,659 6.43 +0.37

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Judith Graley ALP 25,965 60.94 -1.66
Michael Shepherdson LIB 16,641 39.06 +1.66

Booth breakdown
Booths in Narre Warren South have been divided into two areas: north and south.

The ALP polled much higher with 64% in the south, while they polled just under 57% in the north. The Greens outpolled Family First in the north, but Family First outpolled the Greens in the south.

 

Polling booths in Narre Warren South at the 2006 state election. South in blue, North in green.
Voter group GRN % FF % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
South 5.64 6.84 64.13 18,455 43.32
North 6.95 6.83 56.95 14,433 33.90
Other votes 7.26 7.33 57.31 9,708 22.79
Two-party-preferred votes in Narre Warren South at the 2006 state election.

6 COMMENTS

  3. Can any locals enlighten me on why the booths here are so linear, and what is the reason for the sharp division in political leanings between the two main lines?

  4. Hallam and parts of Hampton Park (in the west) are older and contain some low-rent public housing type areas. Hence the 70%+ vote Labor racks up in those areas. In contrast, Berwick and Narre Warren are typical growing outer suburban areas, and are politically more marginal.

  5. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Claus Endres – Greens
    Judith Graley – Labor
    Gary Rowe – Liberal
    Ian George –
    Angela Dunleavy –
    Nathan Dodd – DLP
    Mark Konkel – Family First

  6. I just ask that voters will consider all options and look beyond the smoke screen and mirrors. It is your voice and concerns that matter and please ask the questions that are not being raised. Good Luck to all the candidates and Please remember they are the reason you are here. Kind Regards Ian George, Independent candidate Narre Warren South.

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