Northern Victoria – Victoria 2010

Incumbent MLCs

  • Candy Broad (ALP), since 2006. Previously MLC for Melbourne North 1999-2006.
  • Kaye Darveniza (ALP), since 2006. Previously MLC for Melbourne West 1999-2006.
  • Damian Drum (NAT), since 2006. Previously MLC for North West 2002-2006.
  • Wendy Lovell (LIB), since 2006. Previously MLC for North East 2002-2006.
  • Donna Petrovich (LIB), since 2006.

Geography
Northern Victoria region covers the electoral districts of Benalla, Benambra, Bendigo East, Bendigo West, Macedon, Mildura, Murray Valley, Rodney, Seymour, Shepparton and Swan Hill. Northern Victoria covers the length of the New South Wales border along the Murray River from the South Australian border to the seat of Benambra, including Wodonga. The region extends south to cover the Bendigo area and rural areas north of Melbourne.

Six of Northern Victoria’s seats are held by the Nationals, four are held by the ALP and one is held by the Liberal Party. All six National seats are held by large margins, with six of the seven safest Coalition seats being in Northern Victoria. The Liberal seat of Benambra is held by a 7.7% margin.

The four Labor seats are held by margins between 5.4% and 10.6%.

2006 result

Group Votes % Quota
Labor 110,015 30.11 1.8065
Liberal 106,483 29.14 1.7485
The Nationals 77,421 21.19 1.2713
The Greens 26,603 7.28 0.4368
Family First 13,381 3.66 0.2197
Democratic Labor Party 7,841 2.15 0.1288
Country Alliance 7,495 2.05 0.1231
People Power 2,497 0.68 0.0410
Christian Democratic Party 1,881 0.51 0.0309
Others 11,774 3.22 0.1933

The ALP, the Liberal Party and the Nationals each won a quota in their own right. The ALP polled 80% of a second quota, while the Liberal Party and Nationals polled a second total quota between them. The Greens polled 43% of a quota.

After the entire count, the final breakdown was:

  • Darveniza (ALP) – 0.8247 quotas
  • Alden (GRN) – 0.6170
  • Hulls (FF) – 0.4997

The exclusion of the Family First candidate elected the second Labor candidate. Not all Family First preferences were distributed, but very few flowed to the Greens, suggesting that the final Labor vs Greens margin can be calculated by crediting most Family First preferences to the ALP. This final margin comes out as approximately 11.2%.

Candidates
The Greens are running former Mayor of Greater Bendigo, David Jones. The ALP is running sitting MLCs Candy Broad and Kaye Darveniza.

Political situation
The first seat for the Labor, Liberal and National parties can all be judged as safe, and the second Liberal seat is reasonably secure considering the surplus vote from the Nationals.

The Coalition is a long way from being able to win four seats. The second Labor seat is only really vulnerable to the Greens. Even then, the Greens would require a swing of over 5% to claim that seat, which is still a substantial ask.

6 COMMENTS

  1. If the Liberals/Coalition decide to preference the Greens ahead of the ALP or run a split ticket (unlike last time) then the Coalition surplus from election a 3rd candidate (which looks like being bigger this time) would help the Greens.

    Last election the Greens ran only 3 candidates in this region and I have heard/read that this cost the Greens formal votes because people who voted BTL 1,2,3, for the Green candidates in this region had informal votes while people who voted 1,2,3,4,5, for the Green candidates in the 6 regions where the Greens ran a full slate of 5 had formal votes because of the 5 preference minimum in the Legislative Council.

  2. Labor have directed preferences to the Country Alliance ahead of the Greens here and in Eastern Victoria. They are also preferencing the Sex Party ahead of the Greens in Northern Metro. The Coalition has put the Greens last in all regions.

  4. Country Alliance are going to do a Steve Feilding here, again at the expense of a Green,.,
    Country Alliance are preferncing the ALP and the ALP in Bendigo East and West. This deal makes a lot of sense with Princess Jacinta Allan, to be saved at all cost. The Local Greens Branch have announced an open ticket to the shock and horror of the ALP. What did they expect?

  5. Hey Ben could you please add a preview of Mildura so we can discuss the independent challenge that is getting a bit of press even in the Melbourne papers?

  6. Looks like Country Alliance is going to miss out on a seat by .30% or so, I suppose they’re in a good position for next time, assuming they can maintain and increase their popularity until next time. I think it’s more likely they’ll bleed support to the National party between now and the next election, meaning the last spot will probably continue to be held by the Liberal party.

    Greens failed to make half a quota after preferences, I guess it’s not really surprising to see that this isn’t a strong area for them. Also very small votes for the traditional conservative third parties (FF, CDP and DLP) – I’m not sure if they usually get such low votes in this area or not, but it kind of surprised me that Sex outpolled the lot of them.

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