Keilor – Victoria 2010

ALP 19.4%

Incumbent MP
George Seitz, since 1982.

Geography
North-western Melbourne. Keilor covers northern parts of the City of Brimbank and eastern parts of Melton Shire. Keilor covers the suburbs of Hillside, Keilor Downs, Keilor Lodge, Keilor North, Taylors Hill, Taylors Lakes and Sydenham and parts of Caroline Springs, Keilor and Plumpton.

History
Keilor was first created for the 1976 election. It has always been won by the ALP.

Keilor was first won in 1976 by Jack Ginifer. He had been an MP since winning a by-election in the seat of Grant in 1966. Grant was abolished in 1967 and he moved to the new seat of Deer Park, which he held until 1976, when Deer Park itself was abolished, and he moved to Keilor. Ginifer was appointed a minister in the new Labor state government in April 1982, but resigned from Parliament a month later, and died two months after that.

George Seitz won the 1982 by-election, and has held the seat ever since. Seitz never achieved ministerial office in the Cain, Kirner, Bracks or Brumby governments, and faced allegations of local branch-stacking in his later years in office.  Seitz managed to gain an exemption in 2006 from ALP rules requiring MPs to retire at 65. Facing withdrawal of his preselection, he announced he would retire at the 2010 election.

Candidates

Political situation
Keilor is a very safe Labor seat.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
George Seitz ALP 23,674 58.45 -4.92
John Clifford LIB 10,081 24.89 -4.15
Lisa Asbury GRN 3,427 8.46 +0.87
Scott Amberley FF 3,321 8.20 +8.20

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
George Seitz ALP 28,107 69.41 +1.37
John Clifford LIB 12,385 30.59 -1.37

Booth breakdown
Polling booths in Keilor have been divided into four areas: Keilor, Sydenham, Central and West. The ALP polled most strongly in the Centre and Sydenham, and least strongly in Keilor. The Greens and Family First polled almost exactly the same vote. In Keilor the Greens polled much more strongly, and they also slightly outpolled Family First in the centre of the seat. In the remainder of the seat, Family First slightly outpolled the Greens.

 

Polling booths in Keilor at the 2006 state election. Central in yellow, Keilor in red, Sydenham in blue, West in green.

 

Voter group GRN % FF % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Central 8.03 7.98 72.00 13,296 32.84
Sydenham 7.99 8.58 71.85 9,959 24.59
West 7.41 8.26 69.60 5,131 12.67
Keilor 10.11 6.17 61.38 4,896 12.09
Other votes 9.54 9.40 66.60 7,210 17.81
Two-party-preferred votes in Keilor at the 2006 state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. Interestingly, on these boundaries Keilor would have been a marginal seat during the Kennett era.

    The 2001 redistribution weakened the seat for Labor by over 5%, presumably by removing very strongly Labor voting areas in the south around St Albans.

  2. 2006 Greens candidate Lisa Asbury is running again.

    The Liberals are running Damon Ryder, who was their candidate for Gorton at the federal election.

    The VEC website also lists another candidate, Harpreet Walia.

  3. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Scott Amberley – Family First
    Damon Ryder – Liberal
    Natalie Hutchins – Labor
    Lisa Asbury – Greens
    Harpreet Walia –

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