Bass – Victoria 2010

LIB 5.5%

Incumbent MP
Ken Smith, since 2002. Previously MLC for South-Eastern 1988-2002.

Geography
Eastern Victoria. Bass covers regional areas to the southeast of Melbourne, including areas on the eastern side of Western Port. Bass covers Bass Coast Shire, southern and central parts of Cardinia Shire, and a small part of the City of Casey. It stretches from outer suburban Pakenham to the rural towns of Lang Lang and Nar Nar Goon and the coastal tourist centres of Phillip Island and Inverloch.

History
Bass was created at the 2002 election, replacing the former seat of Gippsland West.

Gippsland West had been held by Kennett government minister Alan Brown from 1992 until late 1996, when he resigned to serve as Victoria’s Agent General.

The 1997 by-election was won by Susan Davies, an independent candidate who had previously been a member of the ALP. Davies supported the new Bracks minority government.

Davies contested the notional Liberal seat of Bass in 2002, as did Liberal MLC Ken Smith, whose South-Eastern province had been abolished in the redistribution.

Davies polled 21.8%, falling into third place, and Smith held the seat with a slim 0.6% margin. He increased his margin to 5.5% in 2006.

Candidates

Political situation
The Liberal Party should be able to hold on.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ken Smith LIB 16,584 46.36 +5.89
John Anderson ALP 12,517 34.99 +6.98
Tully Fletcher GRN 3,169 8.86 +3.48
Cameron Begg FF 1,613 4.51 +4.51
Jacky Abbott NAT 1,275 3.56 +3.56
Cheryl Billing-Smith IND 611 1.71 +1.71

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ken Smith LIB 19,882 55.52 +4.88
John Anderson ALP 15,926 44.48 -4.88

Booth breakdown
Booths in Bass have been divided into two areas between those in Cardinia and Bass Coast shires. The sole booth in the City of Casey has been grouped with neighbouring Cardinia.

While the Liberals won a majority in both areas, the 7.7% margin in Cardinia was much larger than the 2.9% margin in Bass Coast. The Greens polled much more strongly in Bass Coast.

 

Polling booths in Bass at the 2006 state election. Cardinia in blue, Bass Coast in yellow.
Voter group GRN % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Cardinia 6.12 57.71 13,809 38.56
Bass Coast 11.73 52.94 12,915 36.07
Other votes 8.96 55.88 9,084 25.37
Two-party-preferred votes in Bass at the 2006 state election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. The Legislative Council vote suggests that if Labor had campaigned in this seat in 2002 rather than running dead to assist Davis they would have won or that she would have won as an ALP candidate.

  2. Yeah, Bass 2002 was ironic in that Davies was offered the Labor nomination for the seat, and would have won it easily as a Labor MP, but thought she was more likely to win as an Independent.

    You then had a bizzare dynamic where Labor tried desperately to run dead, but performed so well in 2002 that they finished ahead of Davies despite themselves, with enough of Davies’ preferences getting the Liberal over the line. Labor should probably not have contested the seat, as Davies was a Labor MP in all but name, and would have reliably voted with them.

  3. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Gerry Lonergan – Labor
    Ken Smith – Liberal
    Neil Rankine – Greens
    Bruce Rogers – Country Alliance

Comments are closed.