Lyons – Tasmania 2024

Incumbent MPs

  • Guy Barnett (Liberal), since 2014.
  • Jen Butler (Labor), since 2018.
  • Mark Shelton (Liberal), since 2010.
  • John Tucker (Independent), since 2019.1
  • Rebecca White (Labor), since 2010.

1Tucker first sat as a Liberal but resigned from the party in May 2023.

Geography
Tasmania’s largest seat by area, Lyons includes parts of every region of the state. The seat stretches from the outskirts of Devonport and Launceston in the north to the outskirts of Hobart in the south, as well as the central highlands and the east coast of Tasmania.

History
Lyons was first created for the 1986 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Lyons. This replaced the seat of Wilmot, which had previously covered central Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

Wilmot tended to favour conservative parties, and the conservative parties held the district by a 4-2 margin for the first five elections under proportional representation. At the 1922 election, the Nationalists lost two of their four seats to the Country Party.

In 1925, the ALP won a third seat for the first time, while the other Country Party seat was won by an independent. The major parties each won three seats in 1928, before the Nationalists returned to a 4-2 majority in 1931. The fourth Nationalist seat was lost to an independent in 1934, and Wilmot produced a 3-3 split in 1937. The ALP won a 4-2 majority once only, in 1941, before Wilmot reverted to a 3-3 split between the ALP and the Liberal Party at the 1946, 1948, 1950, 1955 and 1956 elections.

When a seventh seat was added in 1959, the ALP won a fourth seat. The Liberals and ALP maintained at least three seats each from 1959 until 1989, with the major parties competing over the seventh seat. The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959, 1964, 1972, 1976 and 1979, with the Liberals winning four seats in 1969, 1982 and the renamed seat of Lyons in 1986.

The 1989 election saw the ALP lose their third seat to independent Green Christine Milne. This 4-2-1 split was maintained in 1992. As part of the swing away from the Liberal government in 1996, the ALP regained its third seat off the Liberals.

The reduction in numbers in Lyons in 1998 saw Milne’s seat and one of the three Liberal seats eliminated, producing a 3-2 split for the ALP. The 2002 election saw the Liberals lose yet another seat to Greens candidate Tim Morris. The ALP won three seats, alongside one Green and two Liberals. This result was maintained in 2006.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Liberal Party. Labor MPs David Llewellyn and Heather Butler both lost their seats, which went to the ALP’s Rebecca White and the Liberal Party’s Mark Shelton.

The Liberal Party gained a third seat in 2014 off the Greens, with Tim Morris losing his seat after twelve years in parliament. This result was repeated in 2018 and 2021.

Candidates

Assessment
The votes cast in Lyons in 2021 would have elected four Liberals with the increased magnitude. The other extra seat would have gone to Labor or the Greens.

2021 result

Candidate Votes % Quota New quota Swing
Guy Barnett 14,821 20.9 1.2520
Mark Shelton 8,613 12.1 0.7276
John Tucker 4,619 6.5 0.3902
Stephanie Cameron 3,168 4.5 0.2676
Justin Derksen 2,622 3.7 0.2215
Susie Bower 2,517 3.5 0.2126
Liberal Party 36,360 51.2 3.0715 4.0951 +0.4
Rebecca White 16,338 23.0 1.3801
Jen Butler 2,635 3.7 0.2226
Janet Lambert 2,278 3.2 0.1924
Edwin Batt 1,141 1.6 0.0964
Gerard Gaffney 721 1.0 0.0609
Australian Labor Party 23,113 32.5 1.9524 2.6031 -1.1
Liz Johnstone 2,883 4.1 0.2435
Tim Morris 1,502 2.1 0.1269
Jill Pierce 737 1.0 0.0623
Isabel Shapcott 660 0.9 0.0558
Glenn Millar 511 0.7 0.0432
Tasmanian Greens 6,293 8.9 0.5316 0.7088 +2.6
Carlo Di Falco 3,175 4.5 0.2682
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 3,175 4.5 0.2682 0.3576 +0.6
Sharon Mclay 1,411 2.0 0.1192
Animal Justice Party 1,411 2.0 0.1192 0.1589 +2.0
George Lane 674 0.9 0.0569
Total Others 674 0.9 0.0569 0.0759 +0.9
Informal 4,539 6.0

Preference flows

Two candidates were elected on a full quota of primary votes (Guy Barnett and Rebecca White). Liberal candidate Mark Shelton reached a quota with six other candidates left competing for the final two seats:

  • John Tucker (LIB) – 0.612 quotas
  • Liz Johnstone (GRN) – 0.554
  • Jen Butler (ALP) – 0.553
  • Stephanie Cameron (LIB) – 0.482
  • Janet Lambert (ALP) – 0.424
  • Carlo Di Falco (SFF) – 0.363

Shooters preferences scattered across the political spectrum, with Tucker doing best out of them:

  • Tucker (LIB) – 0.705
  • Johnstone (GRN) – 0.591
  • Butler (ALP) – 0.616
  • Cameron (LIB) – 0.551
  • Lambert (ALP) – 0.492

Lambert’s preferences elected her Labor colleague:

  • Butler (ALP) – 1.027
  • Tucker (LIB) – 0.722
  • Johnstone (GRN) – 0.613
  • Cameron (LIB) – 0.566

Butler’s small surplus did favour the Greens over the Liberals, but the Liberals clearly had the votes to win the fifth seat:

  • Tucker (LIB) – 0.724
  • Johnstone (GRN) – 0.620
  • Cameron (LIB) – 0.568

Cameron’s preferences overwhelmingly flowed to Tucker, electing him with a substantial surpus.

  • Tucker (LIB) – 1.132
  • Johnstone (GRN) – 0.641

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south. Lyons covers all or part of twelve council areas, and these council boundaries have been used to divide booths into three areas.

  • Central – Break O’Day, Central Highlands, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Northern Midlands, Southern Midlands.
  • North – Kentish, Meander Valley.
  • South – Brighton, Clarence, Derwent Valley, Sorell, Tasman.

The Liberal Party topped the primary vote, ranging from 43% in the south to 60% in the north.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 24% in the north to 39% in the south.

Voter group LIB % ALP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
South 43.2 39.2 9.6 19,977 28.1
Central 55.7 29.2 7.8 15,464 21.8
North 60.1 24.1 9.8 10,285 14.5
Pre-poll 50.5 34.3 8.4 12,853 18.1
Other votes 51.8 31.2 8.7 12,447 17.5

Election results in Lyons at the 2021 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party and the Greens.

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12 COMMENTS

  2. A rough “calculation” using 2022 Senate results would return the following results (I think):
    2 Labor
    3 Liberal
    1 Green
    1 Lambie
    I suspect the state result will be exactly that.
    Lambie party running would be a significant roadblock from both majors gaining any extra seats in the expanded parliament (except 1 for Labor in Clark).
    Meanwhile, I definitely think Federal Lyons is gone in 2025 (will not comment too much on this as this is the state thread).

  3. Alp vote federally is very different to state level vote.
    A good example is bass national 52 lib 48 Labor
    Last state election something like 60 % lib
    40% alp. This is a state election fought on state issues. Last election 13 libs 12 everyone else. Now 2 liberal mps have left their party. Voters don’t usually reward disunity

  4. Leon… there are 35 seats to
    Be filled at this election…..10 extra seats to be filled this time. But there
    Could be balance of power
    Shared by independents..lambie network and greens

  5. @Mick
    The last state election definitely skewed towards the Liberals (particularly but not exclusively in Bass), and I expect this to be “corrected” and the results be closer to federal figures this time.

  7. Lyons is tricky now for the Liberals with John Tucker leaving. I think he will poll a decent vote but I expect him to miss out. Labor will get two but I think JLN might eat into their vote too much for them to get a third seat. This is JLN’s best chance for a seat as they’re running their 2022 federal Lyons candidate who has been visible even after the 2022 election. Running him will prevent leakage and help attract preferences from outside the JLN ticket. Greens have a good shot here too although I think it’ll be more difficult than Bass.

    Prediction: 3 LIB, 2 LAB, 1 GRN, 1 JLN or 3 LIB, 3 LAB, 1 GRN or 3 LIB, 3 LAB, 1 JLN

  8. Was up in the north west over the weekend so spent a while in Lyons on the way up from Hobart. Going through the Meander Valley – on the Liberal side I mainly saw Mark Shelton and Stephanie Cameron signs, which I expected as they’re both based in that area. On the Labor side I saw some Jen Butler signs and a surprising amount of Ben Dudman signs, which indicates he may be the third elected if Labor get two. There were quite a few signs for Greens lead candidate Tabatha Badger, as well as some JLN signs. Did expect to see more of JLN though.

    If signs are any indication John Tucker will struggle. I don’t live in the electorate so I may be missing something but looking in from the outside it doesn’t seem like he’s running a visible campaign.

  10. Signs and TV will probabaly disappear over the coming decades. There’s been a move away as the electorate becomes more online and augmented reality becomes more common. In a world of ITunes =signs will be like vinyl records – important for a purist group. Me personally I enjoy putting up signs – some days. The rest what a pain. Got to store them and all the building materials, it costs a lot now just in fuel to get around and a strong wind in Tassie can give them a hiding…

  11. Some thoughts on election eve

    Liberals: Guy Barnett and Mark Shelton will be re-elected easily. Jane Howlett should probably get the third seat. I have seen quite a few Richard Hallett and Stephanie Cameron signs along the Midland Highway and in the Meander Valley LGA respectively. So they could threaten that. Four seats would be a challenge especially with Tucker on the ballot paper

    Labor: Bec White will poll the highest yet again. Jen Butler will be safely re-elected. I think a third seat is a struggle with both Greens and JLN putting in a serious effort and catering to different parts of Labor’s voterbase. Ben Dudman seems to be the most prominent of the non-incumbent candidates so could get the third most votes.

    Greens: speaking of Greens. I think their primary and JLN’s primary will be similar. I’ve seen more Tabatha Badger signs than expected which indicates they must be putting a serious effort in this time. I think they have a good shot

    JLN: their best shot as they have federal candidate Troy Pfitzner running. Will be shocked if they aren’t elected here.

    Others: doesn’t feel like John Tucker is running a big campaign. His primary was higher than Alexander’s was but 6.5% doesn’t indicate a strong personal vote like an O’Byrne or Johnston. This is the Shooters best electorate but with so many others running they will struggle this time.

    Lyons is probably the hardest one of them all to predict but here goes: 3-2-1-1-0
    less likely
    4-2-1-0-0
    4-2-0-1-0
    3-2-0-1-1
    3-2-1-0-1
    3-3-0-1-0
    3-3-1-0-0

  12. Tucker really bombed here even more than I expected. Howlett did better than expected and I was surprised she outpolled Shelton. My assumptions about JLN were very wrong. Not only did they poll less than Braddon and only slightly more than Bass as well as polling less than the Greens in Lyons – but Pfitzner wasn’t even their highest polling candidate.

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