Braddon – Tasmania 2024

A poll shows Rebecca White as preferred premier, there was rumours that there would be an early Tasmanian state election but I doubt that.

Apparently White has often won the Preferred Premier, or at least been extremely competitive, even when her party was polling terribly.

Seems Tasmanians quite like her personally, but for whatever reason the Labor brand in Tassie has been far less popular.

Latest opinion poll for Tasmanian state voting intentions. LIB 31% ALP 27% JLN 20% GRN 15%.

The JLN primary vote looks unusually high but it could be volatile. I’m convinced that JLN is establishing themselves in middle Tasmania as a third force or the One Nation of Tasmania. Unlike One Nation in Queensland or other populist, third forces like SA Best or NXT in SA, JLN is competing in multi-member seats and so getting just a 17% primary vote means a won seat.

If JLN’s primary vote hits the teens, in Braddon, Bass and Lyons there could be 2 LIB, 2 ALP and 1 JLN, if not 3 LIB, 1 ALP, 1 JLN.

@votante that won’t happen your forgetting Wilkie. Who she doesn’t run against. The status quo will remain in Tas she won’t get a lower house seat. Libs will bassbraddon and Lyons. Wilkie will hold on to Clark and Labor will hold on to franklin

@John, this thread is for the Tasmanian state election, not the federal election. The title can be confusing because federal and state electorates have the same names.

@vipotante my bad yea that would be an accurate assesment

@ Votante,
I think either Libs or Labor will be willing to do a deal with JLN in the event of a hung parliament. While she maybe populist i actually think she is pragmatic. For example she worked with Labor on the Net Zero legislation, Safeguard mechanism, Housing Australia Future Fund & National Reconstruction Fund.

@Nimalan, agreed. Jacqui Lambie has less of an obstructionist reputation. It might be because federal Labor would avoid One Nation similar to how federal LNP would avoid the Greens and that would leave JLN as a more “middle ground” option. She is pro-Voice and at the same time, has classic protectionist tendencies like minimising foreign ownership and boosting Australian manufacturing. If JLN hold the balance of power after the state election, I suspect Labor would rather negotiate with JLN than the Greens.

Agree Votante,
I think Labor would rather negotiate with the JLN rather than Greens. A deal with the Greens will be unpopular among the traditional blue collar wing of the Labor party and may damage its prospects in Lyons. A deal with JLN probably will not be unpopular by the progessive middle class wing of the party and JLN may just request more support for certain industries and maybe a state version of the National Reconstruction Fund. There is no Coal mining/Fossil Fuel industry in Tasmania so that wont be an issue.
.

I can imagine JLN members in any parliament bar the Senate becoming an unmanageable rabble similar to One Nation in QLD in 1998 or the UAP in 2013. It would just splinter into multiple pieces.

Labor may be traumatised from their experiences in going too Green. In 2004, Mark Latham had his forestry policy and was hanging out with Bob Brown, whilst John Howard got cheers from unionised forestry workers. Labor subsequently lost Braddon and Bass. In 2013, federal Labor lost Braddon, Bass and Lyons following a minority Labor government with support from the Greens. Tas Labor would avoid the Greens if they could and may even try to get a preference deal with JLN.

I think JLN can pick up a state seat in Braddon as that this is Senators JL and Tammy Tyrrell’s home turf (both are from NW Tas) and JLN scored 10% in the federal seat of Braddon in 2022.

@Redistributed, I think JLN is focusing just on one very small state for now. ON and UAP grew too fast too quickly with relatively inexperienced, heavy-handed leaders. If only one lower house JLN candidate gets elected, there’s less potential for infighting.

Even if the Liberals do lose the election they’ll definitely have the most seats in Braddon. If JLN does well here then a possible result could be:

Liberal: 4 seats (+1)
Labor: 2 seats (steady)
JLN: 1 seat (+1)
TOTAL: 7 seats (+2)

My hometown seat. The Liberals will negate some of the swing against due to Jeremy Rockliff and by having the same three incumbents they took to the previous election. Don’t see any scenario where they don’t get four seats. Labor will easily retain their two seats as like in Bass they have two good incumbents with a similar level of popularity. A third seat is a stretch.

I think the last seat will be between JLN and Craig Garland. I expect JLN to poll double digits but they will suffer from leakage. If Garland can get a boost of a few percent I think he has a good shot at beating out the fifth Liberal, third Labor and a JLN candidate. Greens have no chance and I suspect they’ll be more focused on gaining seats in the other four electorates. I haven’t been up this way since Christmas so will be interested to see signage and the general sentiment when I visit in two weeks.

Prediction: either 4 LIB, 2 LAB and 1 IND (Garland) or 4 LIB, 2 LAB, 1 JLN

In the Devonport area and surrounds Felix Ellis was the most visible which doesn’t surprise me. Was surprised by how much of Adrian Luke (Labor) I saw but him being from Devonport made it make sense. Unsurprisingly JLN had some presence but not as much as I was expecting. Didn’t see anything from the Greens but it would be a waste for them to target the electorate when Bass, Lyons and second seats in Clark and Franklin are more winnable than Braddon. Still expecting one of my two predicted scenarios from before to happen.

@Zachary
I agree with your assessment and I’m leaning towards 4 Lib, 2 Labor and 1 JLN.
I’m curious as to whether Garland may cannibalise potential JLN votes, they both seem to appeal to a certain type of voter. I also wonder how JLN will perform without Lambie herself running.

Libs are NOT getting 50% of FPV here. They will fall under 50%. they are at their highpoint currently and with the unpopularity of the state liberal and federal opposition. There will be a correction. But the Liberals will win more votes and seats in Braddon than Labor.

new poll out today shows libs ahead in every seat at a state level if replicated at a federal election would see lyons fliiping and even have labor in trouble in normal safe franklin. in braddon libbs are at 49% FPV meaning gavin pearce would be as safe as houses and archer holding bass easily.

@John, Tasmanians just like Queenslanders tends to have political culture separating their federal and state votes. Hence State votes is not a good indicator here plus I don’t think Libs would be anywhere close to winning Clark.

@marh yea not a federal level thats wilkies until he retires

The Jacquie Lambie network – which presently has no seats in the state parliament – would win 10.2 per cent in the seat of Bass, 12.28 per cent in the seat of Braddon, eight per cent in the seat of Franklin and 11.2 per cent in the seat of Lyons – enough to win four seats under the Hare Clark system.

The Liberals are well ahead of Labor in every seat in the poll – 40.28 per cent to 25.87 per cent in Bass, 49.24 per cent to 14.65 per cent in Braddon, 25.55 per cent to 21.37 per cent in Clark, 33.23 per cent to 27.4 per cent in Franklin and 38.46 per cent to 23.26 per cent in Lyons.

Thoughts on election eve

Liberals: if they don’t get four here than we’re looking at Premier White or something even crazier. This is the Premier’s seat and they also have Felix Ellis and Roger Jaensch as incumbents. I think Vonette Mead or Giovanna Simpson will get the fourth seat.

Labor: interesting to see some discussions and even a poll indicating that they may only win one seat here. Which would be a crazy result. I still think Anita Dow and Shane Broad will have similar vote totals like the previous two elections which will prevent them from suffering from the Ginninderra effect. I can’t see that changing this time unless Dow being deputy Labor leader gives a significant boost in her vote.

JLN: The lack of high profile candidates will harm them due to leakage but they might still poll enough that it won’t matter.

Others: Garland’s vote held up in 2022 even with JLN on the ballot. I have seen a few signs around near my parents house which is not in his home base. I think it will be very close between him and the JLN candidate. The Greens won’t be anywhere near getting a seat and I have yet to see one of their signs in Braddon. Peter Freshney might do decently but I think having JLN and Garland on the ballot paper will make him get lost in the mix.

My prediction is 4-2-0-1-0
less likely:
4-2-0-0-1
3-2-0-1-1
4-1-0-1-1

Definitely Liberals 3 and Labor 2 – the other 2 seats will be close.
I tip Lambie’s party to get a seat in a close contest. Her support looks strongest in this electorate, but I’m not sure if she’s got candidate who can really win over voters, though her name recognition should get somebody elected. The last seat could go in any direction, but I tip the Liberals to grab it after a fight, because both Labor and the Greens look weak here.

Pretty bad that Rockliff couldn’t even get the Liberals to four here, well done Garland winning after so many attempts! This result wasn’t even in any of my scenarios. We might not be getting Premier White but Garland being in parliament is not at all helpful for Rockliff. I was right about Mead and Simpson fighting for the fourth spot but that won’t even matter unless there’s resignations. Labor’s result here wasn’t great but still better than I expected. Greens did better than I expected and I was shocked that at one point it looked like they had a remote chance of winning a seat. The statewide primary for Labor shows they have a real problem keeping voters from switching to independent candidates, the Greens or JLN and Braddon is a big example of that.