Franklin – Tasmania 2010

Incumbent MP

• Lara Giddings (ALP), since 2002. Deputy Premier, Minister for Health, Attorney-General and Minister for Justice. Previously Member for Franklin 1996-1998.
• Nick McKim (GRN), since 2002. Leader of the Greens.
• Will Hodgman (LIB), since 2002. Leader of the Liberal Party.
• Ross Butler (ALP), since 2008*.
• Daniel Hulme (ALP), since 2009*.

*Butler was elected in a recount following the retirement of Paul Lennon in May 2008. Hulme was elected in a recount following the retirement of Paula Wreidt in February 2009.

Geography
Franklin covers the southern parts of Tasmania and the outskirts of Hobart. The seat is divided into two parts, with each covering half of the voters in the electorate. Half live on the eastern shore of the Derwent River in Clarence and Brighton LGAs, while the other half lives to the south and west of Hobart in Kingborough and Huon Valley LGAs.

Redistribution
Prior to the redistribution, Franklin shared three local government areas with Lyons: Derwent Valley, Brighton and Clarence. The redistribution transferred the remainder of Clarence from Lyons into Franklin and the remainder of Derwent Valley from Franklin into Lyons. In addition, Lyons gained Bridgewater and Gagebrook from Franklin in northern Hobart. Franklin also lost a small part of Kingborough LGA to the north of Kingston, with the boundary with Denison being shifted south to the Huon Highway.

History
Franklin was first created as a state electorate in 1909, when Tasmania moved to a system of proportional representation with each district electing six members. Franklin has always had the same boundaries as the federal electorate of the same name.

Six-member electorates tended to result in 3-3 splits between the major parties, even when one party received substantially more votes than the other party, producing many hung parliaments and slim majorities.

The ALP didn’t manage to win a majority of Franklin’s seats for almost thirty years. The Anti-Socialist Party won a 4-2 majority in 1909, and then the ALP and the Liberal/Nationalist party each won 3 seats at the 1912, 1913, 1916 and 1919.

The Country Party contested the Tasmanian election in 1922, the only time the party won seats in the House of Assembly. They won five seats, including one in Franklin, which they took from the ALP, while the Nationalists held their three seats and the ALP two.

The Lyons Labor government won a majority in the 1925 election, including three seats in Franklin, while the Liberals were reduced to one seat, alongside two independents.

The 1928 election saw the Nationalists win three seats in every district, and the ALP won three seats in all other districts. The only exception was Franklin, where the ALP lost their third seat to an independent, producing a 15-14-1 breakdown in the House of Assembly.

The 1931 election saw Franklin’s numbers maintained, while the Nationalists won a fourth seat at the expense of the ALP in every other district.

The 3-2-1 split was reversed in 1934, with the ALP winning back a third seat off the Nationalists. The ALP finally won a 4-2 majority in Franklin in 1937, and again in 1941, although the fourth ALP seat was lost to an independent at the 1946 and 1948 elections.

Franklin elected three Liberals and three Labor MPs at the 1950, 1955 and 1956 elections, which led to the number of seats per district increased to seven in 1959, allowing for more decisive results.

The Liberal Party won a fourth seat at the 1959 election, with the ALP maintaining their three seats. The ALP won a 4-3 majority at the 1964, 1969, 1972, 1976 and 1979 elections.

At the 1982 election, the ALP and the Liberal Party each won three seats. The seventh seat was held by former Labor premier Doug Lowe, who had moved to the crossbenches upon his removal as Premier in 1981.

The 1986 election saw the ALP lose their third seat for the first time since 1931. The Liberal Party won four seats and the ALP two. The seventh seat was won by Green independent Gerry Bates, who joined Bob Brown in Denison.

The 1989 election saw the ALP win back its third seat off the Liberal Party and Bates re-elected, producing a 3-3-1 split, which was maintained in 1992. In 1996 the ALP and the Greens maintained their seats, but the Liberal Party lost their third seat to Bruce Goodluck, a former Liberal federal MP for Franklin from 1975 to 1993. Goodluck won a seat in the state parliament as an independent.

The size of the House of Assembly was cut to twenty-five, and two of Franklin’s seats were abolished. Greens MP Mike Foley lost his seat and independent Bruce Goodluck retired, while the major parties retained their seats; three for the ALP and two for the Liberal Party.

At the 2002 election, the Liberal Party lost one of their two seats to the Greens, with Franklin electing three Labor MPs along with new MPs Will Hodgman (LIB) and Nick McKim (GRN), both of whom now lead their parties.

At the 2006 election, the numbers were maintained at 3-1-1. Nick McKim was reelected comfortably with just short of a quota, while Hodgman and then-Premier Paul Lennon each won quotas in their own right. Lara Giddings (ALP) was also re-elected, and Paula Wreidt squeezed in to the last seat, beating Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin by about 1000 votes.

Candidates

• Group A (GRN)
  • Nick McKim (GRN)*, Leader of the Tasmanian Greens.
  • Adam Burling (GRN), former Huon Valley councillor, advisor to Bob Brown and Gunns 20 defendant.
  • Wendy Heatley (GRN), third on the Greens ticket.
  • Mark Harrison (GRN), fourth on the Greens ticket.
  • Deborah Brewer (GRN), fifth on the Greens ticket.
• Group B (SA)
  • Jenny Forward (SA)
• Group C (ALP)
  • Ross Butler (ALP)*, Member for Franklin since 2008.
  • Kate Churchill (ALP)
  • Lara Giddings (ALP)*, Deputy Premier.
  • Daniel Hulme (ALP)*, Member for Franklin since 2009.
  • David O’Byrne (ALP), Secretary of the LHMU.
• Group D (LIB)
  • Will Hodgman (LIB)*, Leader of the Opposition.
  • David Compton (LIB)
  • Jillian Law (LIB)
  • Tony Mulder (LIB), Clarence City Alderman.
  • Jacquie Petrusma (LIB), former Family First Senate candidate.
• Ungrouped
  • John Forster

Political situation
This seat is a high prospect for the Liberal Party to gain one of their seats they need to win government. Hodgman should be able to win a large surplus as Leader of the Opposition, which should substantially help a second Liberal to win election, although this will be made harder by the loss of former Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin. Goodwin was elected as the sole Liberal member of the Legislative Council at a 2009 by-election. Jacquie Petrusma has a presence as a former Family First candidate who almost won a Senate seat in 2004, although none of the Liberals stand out as the contender for a second Liberal seat.

Greens MP Nick McKim should win re-election easily, but there is no serious prospect of the Greens winning a second seat in Franklin.

On the other hand, the ALP’s sitting MPs are weaker than in 2006, with the loss of Paul Lennon, although Lara Giddings’ profile has increased. New MPs Daniel Hulme and Ross Butler are both at risk of losing to a Liberal candidate, with Butler particularly vulnerable to challengers. David O’Byrne, secretary of the LHMU and brother of Bass MP Michelle O’Byrne, will also be a strong contender to win a Labor seat.

2006 result

Booth breakdown
The ALP dominated Franklin, although this varied throughout the electorate. The ALP performed particularly in Clarence, covering the eastern shore of the Derwent River. Kingborough LGA, south of Hobart, was the strongest area for both the Liberal Party and the Greens, with the ALP polling less than 40%.

The ALP topped the poll in most booths. The Greens topped the poll in four booths, all in Kingborough, while the Liberals won two booths.