Stretton by-election, 2021

1. My prediction is government will retain. I’ve put it this way rather than saying A LP will retain because I think COVID 19 has given governments big advantage. Each night we see opposition figures denigrating governments and enjoying soDamaging their own chances of forming government.Each night Palaszczuk appears on TV and confirms that she is the government of each night and opposition figure appears confirming that they are the opposition. Consequence is that’s the electorate get behind the government. The electorate will not punish the government for holding a by- election in the circumstances of this one. Australian voters know that Palaszczuk could not have avoided this by election and will not take revenge.
   My prediction is an increase in vote for the government at the expense of all other parties.
   The anti-VAX lunatic fringe will pick up some vote From Conservative voters but this will not be from the ALP.

2. Obvious ALP retain. The LNP candidate wrote some rude posts on Facebook and some psychos from the anti-vac party whinged at the disabled Greens candidate at a polling booth. If this news doesn’t thrill you, wait until you hear what I had for breakfast

3. The sad circumstances of a very popular member in the late Duncan Pegg, that caused the bye-election won’t likely cause annoyance with voters. Bye-elections give voters a chance for a protest vote against the government but it will likely be very limited here if there is one.

   Also the LNP candidate using Peg’s image in LNP brochures was a bad move. Pegg’s family has requested it not be used and so they should. There is no way Pegg would have wanted this and nor would he gave his permission considering he spent his career supporting the Labor movement.

   This bye-election won’t make or break David Crisafulli leadership either. Criasfulli has a lot on his plate at the moment in trying to get the LNP’s house in order. The cleanout of the LNP hierarchy being a major priority if they want to be a viable opposition. And as mentioned it hard for the opposition to make headway when the state government is doing a solid job managing the pandemic.

   Labor retains.

4. These are my old stomping grounds and I grew up in the area. Had the pleasure of meeting the late Duncan Pegg a few times and he was a good egg, and well regarded in the community.

   Jim Bellos is fairly well known as well (used to swing by my old high school a fair bit) but between Labor’s margin, the circumstances leading to the byelection and some “intresting” online comments, easy Labor retain.

5. Emphatic ALP retain, In addition to what everyone else said, James Martin’s performance at the BCC election was exceptional in what was a pretty bad election for Labor

   Really surprised LNP are running at all as the 2PP might be embarrassing. Were they trying to tee up a federal candidate for Moreton/Oxley/Rankin? Clearly they haven’t done themselves any favours.

6. Small swing to LNP on 2pp – still a safe Labor seat. On primaries, swings were to LNP and the two new players (AJP, anti-vaxxers); from Labor, the Greens and the absent One Nation. Nothing worth getting too excited over.

   I’m guessing the LNP candidate won’t get a federal gig, unless it’s an unwinnable seat like Rankin.

7. The only reason the LNP got a swing is the loss of Pegg’s personal vote. nothing to do with the LNP improving under Crisafulli.

   Despite all my criticisms of the ALP I do think they will win the 2024 state election. Crisafulli is a Newman 2.0 he served under him and most fellow QLD’s well remember the Newman days. Unless Albo is PM I expect the premier to be re-elected with a reduced majority.

   Regardless governments almost always get swings against them at by-elections even popular ones. Take the result as a grain of salt for the LNP’s chances in 2024. A swing to them means nothing. And even then the swing that they got is half of what they need to deprive Labor of their majority.

8. Daniel a prediction on the 2024 Election is a bit premature. A week is a long time in politics but 32 months is an eternity. In 32 months anything could have happened.

   COVID 19 is causing disagreements not just between parties but within parties.

   Stretton result shows up that electorate basically support government policies. Cristafulli would’ve wise to be singing from same Hymn sheet as Premier and Prime Minister.

   Stratton by election has shown up the inmate ineffectiveness and laziness of media. Virtually no coverage. Whilst I know I can look it up I do not know the name of any of the the candidates. I doubt if a TV camera made it to the outskirts of Brisbane to cover anything other than the result. I will bet the media will have resented having to travel out to the boondooks of Sunnybank and away from their cafes.

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