LIB 18.2%
Incumbent MP
Fraser Ellis (IND), since 2018.
Geography
Regional South Australia. Narungga covers the Yorke Peninsula, the Copper Coast and other surrounding areas.
Redistribution
Narungga lost part of the Adelaide Plains area to Frome, and in return gained part of the Wakefield council area.
Narungga was created in 2018 as a new name for the seat of Goyder, which had existed since the 1970 election. The seat has never been held by the ALP, mostly having been held by the Liberal Party, along with periods held by an independent and the Liberal Movement.
Steele Hall had held the seat of Gouger from 1959 until 1973. Hall became leader of the Liberal and Country League in 1966, and led the LCL into government in 1968. He served as Premier until the LCL’s defeat in 1970.
Hall resigned as LCL leader in 1972, leading the Liberal Movement as a splinter party from the LCL. In 1973, he moved from Gouger to Goyder, winning the seat off the LCL’s James Ferguson.
Hall resigned from Goyder in 1974 to run for the Senate, triggering a by-election. Hall served in the Senate until 1977, with the Liberal Movement merging back into the Liberal Party in 1976. He later held the federal seat of Boothby as a Liberal MP from 1981 to 1996.
The 1974 Goyder by-election was won by the Liberal Movement’s David Boundy. He rejoined the Liberal Party in 1976, and won Liberal preselection for the 1977 election. His preselection rival, Keith Russack, ran in Goyder as an independent and won, before returning to the Liberal Party.
Russack retired at the 1982 election, and Goyder was won by John Meier. Meier held Goyder for 24 years, retiring in 2006.
Steven Griffiths won Goyder in 2006. He joined the Liberal frontbench in 2007, and he was elected Liberal deputy leader in 2009. He was re-elected in 2010, but was replaced as Liberal deputy leader immediately after the election. Griffiths was re-elected in 2014.
Griffiths retired in 2018, and was replaced in the renamed seat of Narungga by Liberal candidate Fraser Ellis. Ellis left the Liberal Party to sit as an independent in early 2021 after allegations at the ICAC about his misuse of allowances for rural members spending the night in Adelaide.
- Fraser Ellis (Independent)
- Tom Michael (Liberal)
- Ashley Wright (Nationals)
- Dianah Walter (Independent)
- Kerry White (One Nation)
- Wendy Joyce (Family First)
- Mark Paull (Labor)
Assessment
Narungga is typically a safe Liberal seat. It seems unlikely that Ellis could successfully contest the seat as an independent, but that is the only danger of the seat not being won by the Liberal Party in 2022.
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Fraser Ellis | Liberal | 10,269 | 46.5 | -7.0 | 47.2 |
Sam Davies | SA-Best | 5,378 | 24.3 | +24.3 | 23.3 |
Douglas Milera | Labor | 3,734 | 16.9 | -9.6 | 16.0 |
Rebecca Hewett | Australian Christians | 2,012 | 9.1 | +1.9 | 8.7 |
Jason Swales | Greens | 700 | 3.2 | +0.3 | 3.1 |
Others | 1.6 | ||||
Informal | 937 | 4.1 |
2018 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Fraser Ellis | Liberal | 13,136 | 59.5 | |
Sam Davies | SA-Best | 8,957 | 40.5 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Fraser Ellis | Liberal | 14,883 | 67.4 | +3.3 | 68.2 |
Douglas Milera | Labor | 7,210 | 32.6 | -3.3 | 31.8 |
Booths in Narungga have been divided into three parts: Copper Coast, Yorke Peninsula and the east.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 63% on the Copper Coast to 72.4% on the Yorke Peninsula.
SA-Best came second, with a primary vote ranging from 17.9% in the east to 26.7% on the Copper Coast.
Voter group | SAB prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
Copper Coast | 26.7 | 63.0 | 7,003 | 32.5 |
Yorke Peninsula | 21.2 | 72.4 | 6,288 | 29.2 |
East | 17.9 | 71.9 | 2,785 | 12.9 |
Other votes | 24.3 | 68.3 | 5,451 | 25.3 |
Election results in Narungga at the 2018 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes, two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, SA-Best and Labor.
Since the Liberals have only preselected a candidate to run against Fraser Ellis a few weeks ago, and he does not seem to be well known in the electorate, I think Ellis goes into the campaign as the strong favourite.