LIB 9.4%
Incumbent MP
David Speirs, since 2018. Previously member for Bright, 2014-2018.
Geography
Southern Adelaide. The seat covers Hallett Cove, Sheidow Park, Trott Park, Seaview Downs, Seacliff and South Brighton.
Redistribution
Black lost its eastern fringe, including Darlington and O’Halloran Hill, to Davenport, and gained South Brighton from Gibson. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 8.7% to 9.4%.
History
Black was created as a new seat in 2018, primarily replacing Mitchell while taking in southern parts of Bright.
Mitchell had alternated between Labor and Liberal, most recently won by Liberal MP Corey Wingard in 2014.
Bright was Labor-held from 2006 until 2014, when Liberal candidate David Spiers won.
Spiers moved to Black in 2018.
- Alex Dighton (Labor)
- Liz Tidemann (Greens)
- David Speirs (Liberal)
Assessment
Black is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Speirs | Liberal | 12,538 | 50.6 | +8.2 | 51.2 |
| Randall Wilson | Labor | 7,870 | 31.7 | -3.7 | 31.0 |
| Dami Barnes | Greens | 1,702 | 6.9 | -0.8 | 6.6 |
| Rob De Jonge | Independent | 1,422 | 5.7 | +5.7 | 5.2 |
| Lionel Zschech | Australian Christians | 698 | 2.8 | -1.6 | 2.6 |
| Anastasia Svetlichny | Dignity | 561 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Others | 1.3 | ||||
| Informal | 1,001 | 3.9 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Speirs | Liberal | 14,546 | 58.7 | +6.4 | 59.4 |
| Randall Wilson | Labor | 10,245 | 41.3 | -6.4 | 40.6 |
Booths in Black have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.4% in the south-east to 60.1% in the south-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 5.3 | 60.1 | 6,164 | 26.9 |
| North | 8.6 | 59.3 | 5,971 | 26.0 |
| South-East | 5.3 | 56.4 | 4,922 | 21.5 |
| Other votes | 6.8 | 61.2 | 5,884 | 25.6 |
Election results in Black at the 2018 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Could a teal gain this given the SA Liberals have gone further to the right under Speirs?
Forget Melbourne, Adelaide is the second-worst city for the Liberals. Second to only Canberra, Australia’s Washington DC.
The SA Liberals only have five seats on margins of over 6% (seats with margins under 6% are considered marginal seats according to the Mackerras pendulum), and two of them come with caveats. These five seats are Frome (8.1%), Bragg (8.2%; not counting the by-election where the margin was reduced to 5.6%), Schubert (11.9%), Chaffey (17.2%) and MacKillop (17.2%; note that the MP, moderate Nick McBride, left the party to sit as an independent in 2023 due to the party’s move further to right-wing under Speirs). Of those, only one is entirely in Adelaide (Bragg) and the caveat for that seat is that the 2022 Bragg state by-election reduced its margin to less than 6%.
The Nationals should campaign harder in the rural seats too. They should be the ones running in Giles and Stuart, for example.
Only one Liberal seat is 100% safe from the Nationals, Labor or independents. And that seat is Schubert, since it’s only semi-rural and partially urban, it’s on an 11.9% margin and covers the conservative-voting Barossa Valley, where Labor never does well. I think in the future it could be a Liberal vs Greens seat. Every other seat could be won by the Nationals (who would and should form the Coalition with the Liberals) or a local independent if it’s a rural seat, or by Labor or the teals if it’s in Adelaide.
One seat they need to target though is Mount Gambier. The Liberals need that back.
@nimalan I agree with you; the further right ward shift of the SA Liberals is going to cause them a lot of damage in seats like Black. I think they see an opportunity to win seats in the Northern Suburbs (e.g Elizabeth, Ramsay and Light) from Labor due to the strong showing from PHON and FF in the 2022 even though detrimentally a lot of those votes came from Liberal voters in 2018. Quite interestingly SA and VIC have mirroring political histories, both states had the dominance of the Liberals in the 1950-1960’s with Playford in SA and Bolte in Victoria but now both states have only had a 1 term Liberal government this century both of which with a very slim majority.
Honestly I see quite hard for the Liberals to get back into government in SA in the near future… I like to call it the Oregan of Australia, the rural areas vote strong for the Liberals while Adelaide has turned itself into a left leaning city, how do you see the Liberals getting back into power in SA??
This would be an easy Labor seat on fed figures. SA Liberals have a bit of the same problem as Vic Libs, need >52/53% TPP to win a majority. Any campaign that gets bigger swings in safer Labor seats would only end up making this problem worse.
As a South Australian, and a keen observer of state politics (As well as Federal), the Liberals have dug themselves into a hole ever since the 2022 election and it will take them about at least 2 election cycles to get back to anything remotely close to a proper government. Malinauskas’ popularity is one thing, the other thing is that when it comes to the key issues, SA Labor had been acting upon nearly every one of them. Cost of living (dare I say it, Malinauskas is probably even more effective in dishing out relief than Albo), clean renewable energy (SA is one of the leading jurisdictions in the world when it comes to solar and wind energy), education, investing in industries across the spectrum, health reforms (and yes, ramping is still a thing but Labor has at least been investing in beds and infrastructure to deal with the issue, unlike the Liberals whose health minister Stephen Wade pretended that nothing was wrong with the system).
The SA Liberals stand for nothing and have delivered nothing in the last few years. All they cared about was culture-warring and constant negativity in opposition. There’s been no alternative policy agenda on health, education, cost of living, environment, infrastructure etc. Not to mention their team had a bunch of rorters back in the early 2020s and obviously a few extreme right wing nutjobs federally like Alex Antic who seems to sway all the political direction of this party.
There’s one area that both parties have fallen short and that is small businesses which are shutting up shop in the dozens lately due to the costs of everything, yet the SA Liberals seem to be completely oblivious to Labor’s lack of policy approach and they themselves claim to be the party of small businesses. Yeah, not here in SA.
Next election will be another comfortable Labor victory. Speirs has no vision and delivers nothing and his team will suffer.
@ Nether Portal/Franky
The issue for SA Liberals if they move further rightwards i dont know what there is to gain. In South Australia, Labor has pretty much already won the climate wars. There are no Coal fired power stations in SA, Renewable energy is at 70% and by 2027 SA is already on track for 100% Renewable electricity. South Australia has already exceeded it 2030 Target of 50% Emissions reduction on 2005 Levels. In terms of SA being Oregon. The Seat of Giles which includes the Steel City is Labor heartland and there has been no Whyalla wipeout or a wipeout of the Labor blue collar vote. The other issue is that Peter Malinaukas is probably the ideal figure to compete for socially conservative working class votes he is a family man with 4 kids, a Catholic and a Footy Dad. With the exception of a state-based voice and climate action i would not consider him to be socially conservative and he is closer to Old Labor.
* not consider Peter M to be Socially progressive.
Nimalan so does that mean Peter Malinauskas is similar to Chris Minns as NSW Premier in that he is more of a centrist who still shares some Christian/family values similar to those championed by the conservative parties.
@Yoh An he is Old Labor like Chris Minns, yes.
Yoh An, Totally agree
Chris Minns is an excellent comparison, which is why i think he appealed more to Western and Southern Sydney than Albanese did. In the NSW state election social issues did not really play a role which is why it was debates around the Wage Cap and Privatisation that was the defining issue. In the article below it actually says that in essence Chris Minns is pretty much a slightly lower class version of Dominic Perrottet. If Peter Malinkunask one day entered Federal politics i think as a Footy Dad he will appeal to the Rugby mums of Lindsay, Petrie and Forde.
https://www.afr.com/politics/nsw-election-a-bleak-choice-between-flat-white-and-a-latte-20230314-p5crux
@nimalan im sure once they have skyrocketing electricity and rolling blackouts people wll start seeing the libs way
The Greens are currently nowhere in SA but they have a more moderate reputation and would be well positioned to pick up the socially progressive and environmental vote should both majors vacate the space.
@ John (Brown Avatar)
I think it maybe too late for the Libs even if they somehow win in 2026, are they going to shutdown all the windfarms and turn off all the solar panels from peoples homes? A bit like arguing for a return to White Australia. Is it possible to increase emissions in SA?
@ John (blue avatar)
I am not sure what value the Greens would add in terms of climate policy in SA. They have already been able to act and deliver on climate policy without the need for advice from the Greens. Maybe on Social policy they cam campaign on a change to the state flag or renaming of cities etc but i am not sure if Peter M is interested in engaging in a debate with the Greens on that
@john (red avatar) Living in SA power prices are not skyrocketing. Yes they’re a bit higher than before but then again it’s worse in the east coast. Despite what the Coalition wants people to believe, renewables are doing their job. And there’s been no rolling blackouts here at all, any blackouts have been due to extreme weather or maintenance. SA has one of the most reliable power supply in this country (and in this world).
SA Labor has also been handing out power price subsidies to those on low-income/concession payments. So to suggest that there will be power cuts and sky-high power prices is nothing but a Liberal party fantasy.
David Speirs has resigned as state Liberal leader today.
Marginal seat surrounded by alp.held seats..will he stay around?
@WL good. The Liberals need an effective leader. He was never going to win the election.
Repeating this for anyone who didn’t see:
SA Liberal Leader David Speirs resigned today as leader, though has confirmed he will stay on as the Member for Black. It’s unknown when a new leader will be elected, thought Shadow Transport Minister Vincent Tarzia (MP for Hartley) seems to have put himself in the ring. Any other contenders?
But in my opinion Speirs lacked the effectiveness to be leader. Dunstan was the cherry on top for him. He felt like he stoked the culture wars a lot over actually providing real policies to SA, plus I also felt he was low-profile and unknown compared to Peter Malinauskas who is well-known and VERY POPULAR in SA.
In states like Victoria, SA, Tasmania and the ACT having a moderate leader who is in-touch is key for the Liberal Party.
If they elect a moderate leader then the federal party would be the only branch moving rightwards instead of moving to or staying on the centre.
John Gardner would be the natural successor for Speirs. Although he is in danger of losing in 2026 if the premier remains popular as Gardner only holds his seat of Morialta by 1.4%
If I were the Liberals, Pick Matt Cowdrey, He represents Colton which used to be a marginal-labor leaning seat that is on a 4.8% margin that is unlikely to fall in 2026 as on a uniform swing, Labor would need to win around 59-60% of the TPP to win it
Stephen Patterson or Morphett would also be a safer choice as his seat is also around the same margin as Colton. Safer choice again.
I just don’t think Tarzia can win a state election, He doesn’t have the touch and ability to win young voters like Matt Cowdrey would have.
The worst leader the Libs could pick is Josh Teague, they will end up with 5 seats if they choose him.
The issue like i mentioned above there is nothing to gain in South Australia by moving rightwards. Labor has already won the climate wars at a state level and Peter Malinukas is the ideal leader who can appeal to the White Working Class.
@Daniel T who do you think the next leader will be?
A photo has been released of Speirs snorting cocaine from a plate, though he claims it’s a deepfake. Analysts have however noted that the facial features match his.
*a video not a photo
So, there will now be a by-election in the seat of Black after David Speirs has resigned due to his arrest and house being raided by police.
https://www.indaily.com.au/news/politics/2024/10/05/david-speirs-to-quit-parliament-after-police-raid-and-arrest
Things have gone south very quickly for David Speirs with this latest development and it is good he is prioritising his mental health by leaving parliament.
However, this will be a test for Vincent Tarzia as the party is mired not just with this scandal but the culture war enveloping the party room with Ben Hood’s divisive pro-life bill.
It is important to note that Black is the Liberal’s only outer suburban seat which would be sensitive to cost of living issues and the party is not focusing about this at all.
The Liberals will struggle to hang on here imo. Things do not look good for them at the moment and the manner in which Speirs has resigned surely won’t make matters any better.
Labor gain, Tarzia is a bozo and is delusional if he thinks he will be premier, what he did to Speirs was unacceptable.
Indeed, following his failed stint at leadership this has been a very long, slow car crash for Mr Speirs.
If I were him, I would have been honest from the beginning and go quietly, instead of that cringeworthy video he left on Facebook.
Move on over to the new by-election thread please.