IND vs LIB 9.5%
Incumbent MP
Geoff Brock, since 2009.
Geography
Central parts of South Australia. Frome covers the town of Port Pirie, the Clare and Gilbert Valleys, and areas in between.
Redistribution
Frome lost Port Broughton, Snowtown, Alford, Bute and Lochiel to Narungga, and lost Laura and Gladstone to Stuart. Frome gained Owen and Hamley Bridge from Goyder. These changes notionally increased Brock’s margin from 8.8% to 9.5%.
History
Frome has existed in three incarnations, the first as a two-member district from 1884 to 1902, and then from 1938 to 1977 and from 1993 until today. The seat was Labor from 1938 to 1970, and Liberal from 1970 until 2008.
When Frome was restored in 1993, it was won by the Liberal Party’s Rob Kerin.
Kerin served as a minister in the Brown and Olsen ministries from 1995 to 2001, and in 2001 became Liberal leader and Premier six months before the 2002 election.
The 2002 election produced a hung parliament, and Kerin was unsuccessful in forming a majority.
Kerin continued to lead the Liberal Party in opposition, and led them to a landslide defeat at the 2006 state election. Kerin resigned as Liberal leader shortly after the election. He announced his retirement in 2007, and resigned early in late 2008, triggering the 2009 Frome by-election.
Port Pirie mayor Geoff Brock ran as an independent at the by-election, the main rival to Liberal candidate Terry Boylan.
Boylan topped the primary vote, with 39.2%, with the ALP’s John Rohde second on 26.1%. Brock was third on 23.6%.
While such a result would have made it impossible in most cases for a third-placed candidate to win, Brock received strong preferences from minor candidates, and overtook the ALP by 30 votes, allowing him to win comfortably on Labor preferences.
Brock was re-elected in 2010 and 2014.
Candidates
- Paul Birkwood (Greens)
- Geoff Brock (Independent)
- Kendall Jackson (Liberal)
- Cat Connor (Dignity)
- Annette Elliot (Labor)
Assessment
Geoff Brock has improved his position at the last two elections, and will likely win a third full term.
2014 election result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Geoff Brock | Independent | 10,342 | 45.2 | +10.1 | 43.7 |
Kendall Jackson | Liberal | 8,217 | 35.9 | -2.7 | 35.7 |
Marcus Connelly | Labor | 2,598 | 11.3 | -7.1 | 12.3 |
Wendy Joyce | Family First | 1,156 | 5.1 | +1.9 | 5.2 |
Rob Scott | Greens | 578 | 2.5 | -0.6 | 2.7 |
Others | 0.3 | ||||
Informal | 566 | 2.4 |
2014 two-candidate-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Geoff Brock | Independent | 13,451 | 58.8 | +2.1 | 59.5 |
Kendall Jackson | Liberal | 9,440 | 41.2 | -2.1 | 40.5 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Kendall Jackson | Liberal | 60.8 | +9.1 | 60.5 |
Marcus Connelly | Labor | 39.2 | -9.1 | 39.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Frome have been divided into four areas: the north, south-east, south-west, and the town of Port Pirie.
Geoff Brock polled 68% of the primary vote in Port Pirie, with his vote in the other areas ranging from 13% in the south-west to 46% in the north.
The Liberal Party polled over 50% in the south-east and south-west, almost 39% in the north and only 16% in Port Pirie. The Labor primary vote ranged from 9.3% in the north to 16.4% in the south-west.
Voter group | IND prim % | LIB prim % | ALP prim % | Total votes | % of votes |
Port Pirie | 68.4 | 15.8 | 10.9 | 6,219 | 30.4 |
South-East | 25.1 | 52.5 | 12.7 | 4,646 | 22.7 |
South-West | 13.3 | 54.7 | 16.4 | 2,463 | 12.0 |
North | 46.2 | 38.9 | 9.3 | 1,573 | 7.7 |
Other votes | 45.4 | 34.6 | 12.7 | 5,572 | 27.2 |
Election results in Frome at the 2014 SA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between primary votes for independent candidate Geoff Brock, the Liberal Party and the Labor Party.
My prediction: Geoff Brock will win again, and like in 2014, will very likely be a key figure as to who forms the next Government of South Australia.
Brockie is a solid “Working Polly” who is dedicated and involved. (He would attend the opening of an envelope), however, he has no teeth and to achieve the goals he sets, he must compromise in order to do so. the price is too high.