LIB 24.4%
Incumbent MP
Tim Whetstone, since 2010.
Geography
Regional South Australia. Chaffey covers the ‘Riverlands’ along the Murray River to the east of Adelaide, on the Victorian and NSW boundary.
Redistribution
Chaffey shifted north, losing Karoonda, Lameroo and Pinnaroo to Hammond and gaining Sedan from Schubert and Blanchetown and Morgan from Stuart. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 25.1% to 24.4%.
History
The electorate of Chaffey has existed since the 1938 election. The seat has gone through four periods: independent rule until the 1950s, marginal seat from 1956 to 1973, Liberal rule from 1973 to 1997, and National Party rule from 1997 to 2010.
Peter Arnold held the seat for the Liberal and Country League and then the Liberal Party from 1968 to 1970 and from 1973 until his retirement in 1993.
The Liberal Party’s Kent Andrew won Chaffey in 1993. At the 1997 election, Andrew lost to the National Party’s Karlene Maywald.
Maywald was elected with a strong margin in 2002, and in that hung parliament supported the Liberal Party in their unsuccessful bid to continue in government. Despite this decision, Maywald accepted an offer in 2004 to serve as a minister in the Rann Labor government.
While Maywald’s decision was controversial, she increased her margin at the 2006 election. She continued in the ministry after the 2006 election, despite the Rann government having a solid majority in the House of Assembly. Her support in the electorate dropped substantially after the 2006 election.
At the 2010 election, Maywald suffered a 15% swing away from her and to the Liberal candidate on the primary vote, and a 20% swing after preferences, which saw Liberal candidate Tim Whetstone elected after preferences with a 3.8% margin. Whetstone was re-elected in 2014.
Candidates
- Michelle Campbell (SA Best)
- Richard Challis (Dignity)
- Tim Whetstone (Liberal)
- Philip Pointer (Greens)
- Trevor Scott (Conservatives)
- Sim Singh-Malhi (Labor)
Assessment
On paper, Chaffey is a safe Liberal seat. It is, however, a very strong area for the Nick Xenophon Team, who polled 34% here in 2016.
2014 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Whetstone | Liberal | 14,196 | 64.8 | +17.1 | 63.9 |
| Mahanbir Grewal | Labor | 3,615 | 16.5 | +9.1 | 17.4 |
| Yvonne Zeppel | Family First | 2,891 | 13.2 | +5.7 | 13.2 |
| Jason Garrood | Greens | 1,199 | 5.5 | +3.3 | 5.5 |
| Informal | 767 | 3.4 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Whetstone | Liberal | 16,454 | 75.1 | -3.3 | 74.4 |
| Mahanbir Grewal | Labor | 5,447 | 24.9 | +3.3 | 25.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Chaffey have been divided into three areas: Berri Barmera, Renmark and the south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 72.4% in Renmark to 76% in the south.
The Family First vote ranged from 12.6% in Renmark to 14.2% in the south.
| Voter group | FF prim % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 14.2 | 76.0 | 6,596 | 31.4 |
| Berri Barmera | 13.9 | 72.6 | 5,694 | 27.1 |
| Renmark | 12.6 | 72.4 | 3,943 | 18.8 |
| Other votes | 11.2 | 74.9 | 4,759 | 22.7 |
Election results in Chaffey at the 2014 SA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Family First primary votes.
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My prediction: Easy Liberal hold.