Mitchell – SA 2014

ALP 2.4%

Incumbent MP
Alan Sibbons, since 2010.

Geography
Southern Adelaide. The seat covers Sheidow Park, Trott Park, Old Reynella, Seaview Downs, Dover Gardens, Seacombe Heights, Seacombe Gardens and Sturt, and parts of Darlington, Bedford Park, Clovelly Park, Mitchell Park, Oaklands Park and Warradale.

Redistribution
Mitchell retained most of its boundaries, losing part of Marion to Elder. The margin was increased from 2.1% to 2.4%.

History
Mitchell has existed since 1970, and has been dominated by the ALP for most of that time.

Ronald Payne held the seat from 1970 until 1989, when he was replaced by another Labor MP, Paul Holloway.

In 1993, Holloway lost the seat to the Liberal Party’s Colin Caudell. Holloway was appointed to the South Australian Legislative Council in 1995, serving until 2011. Caudell went on to serve as a minister in the Rann government.

After one term, Caudell lost in 1997 to the ALP’s Kris Hanna. Hanna was re-elected in 2002, but in 2003 resigned from the ALP and joined the South Australian Greens.

Hanna was planning to run for re-election as a Green in 2006, but resigned from the Greens in February 2006, running for re-election as an independent.

At the 2006 election, the ALP’s Rosemary Clancy polled over 40% of the primary vote, with Hanna second on 24%, but Hanna benefited from very strong preferences and won the seat with 50.6% of the two-party-preferred vote.

At the 2010 election, Hanna increased his primary vote to 28%, and the ALP vote fell to less than 34% thanks to a 9% swing. Despite the shift in primary votes, Hanna lost due to an increased Liberal primary vote. Hanna fell into third place by a 149-vote margin, and Labor’s Alan Sibbons won the seat with a 2.1% margin over the Liberal candidate.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Alan Sibbons is running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Corey Wingard. The Greens are running Simon Roberts-Thomson. Former independent MP Kris Hanna is running again as an independent. Family First are running Barbara Bishop.

• Simon Roberts-Thomson (Greens)
• Barbara Bishop (Family First)
• Kris Hanna (Independent)
• Corey Wingard (Liberal)
• Alan Sibbons (Labor)

Assessment
Mitchell is on paper a very marginal seat, but the 2010 race was very different to what would be expected in 2014. The combined vote for ex-Labor independent Hanna and Sibbons was over 60%, and Sibbons should benefit from a new personal vote and a return of some voters, and this could help him buck the broader trend.

2010 result

2010 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into two areas: north and south. The south covers Reynella and Sheidow Park, with the rest of the electorate included in the north.

The ALP did better in the south, with 37%. The Liberal candidate narrowly outpolled Hanna – 27% to 26%. In the North, Hanna narrowly outpolled the ALP’s Sibbons on primary votes, while the Liberal Party polled better in the north than the south, despite coming third.

On a two-party basis, the ALP won a slim 50.1% majority in the north and a larger 54.5% majority in the south.