Light – SA 2014

ALP 2.8%

Incumbent MP
Tony Piccolo, since 2006.

Geography
North of Adelaide. The seat is focused on Gawler and stretches north to Pinkerton Plains. The seat is an urban-rural fringe electorate.

Map of Light's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Light’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Light lost the suburbs of Smithfield Plains and Munno Para at the southern edge of the seat. The ALP’s margin was cut from 5.3% to 2.8%.

History
Light is a longstanding electorate for South Australian state elections. The seat existed as a multi-member seat from 1867 until 1902. The seat was then restored in 1938 and has existed ever since. In that time, the Liberal Party and its predecessor has won the seat at all but three elections.

The Liberal and Country League won the seat in 1938. The ALP won in 1941, and lost the seat to the LCL in 1944. The LCL held the seat after 1944 for the next sixty years.

In 1970, the LCL’s Bruce Eastick won the seat. He served as the LCL’s leader in opposition from 1972 to 1975, during which time the party was renamed as the Liberal Party.

Eastick later served as Speaker from 1979 to 1982, and retired at the 1993 election.

Malcolm Buckby won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1993. He served as a shadow minister from 2002 to 2004.

In 2006, Buckby suffered a 4.9% swing, and lost his seat to Tony Piccolo.

Piccolo increased his margin with a 3.2% swing in 2010, despite the general statewide swing against Labor.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Tony Piccolo is  running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Cosie Costa. The Greens are running Terry Allen. Family First are running Wendy Rose.

Assessment
Light is a marginal seat and will certainly be a target for the Liberal Party. Prior to 2006, the seat had been held by the Liberal Party since the 1940s, but the seat is changing. The areas it covers are becoming more a part of the Adelaide metropolitan region, so past experience may not be a predictor of the future. Piccolo’s 2.8% margin is certainly not safe.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tony Piccolo ALP 10,077 48.5 +3.8
Cosie Costa LIB 7,899 38.0 -1.8
Penny Johnston GRN 1,088 5.2 +0.3
Tony Bates FF 906 4.4 -2.4
Simon Stewart-Rattray RAH 458 2.2 +2.2
Matthew Allpress G4C 216 1.0 +1.0
Lachlan Hetherington FLT 150 0.7 +0.7

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tony Piccolo ALP 11,499 55.3 +3.2
Cosie Costa LIB 9,295 44.7 -3.2
Polling places in Light at the 2010 state election. Evanston in yellow, Gawler in green, North and East in red, and West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Light at the 2010 state election. Evanston in yellow, Gawler in green, North and East in red, and West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the electorate’s population lies in the Town of Gawler, and these booths were split into Gawler and Evanston.

The remaining booths were split between those to the west of Gawler, and those to the north and east of Gawler.

The ALP won a majority in all four areas, ranging from 50.9% in the north and east, to 55.2% in Evanston. The Greens came third with 5.2%, with Family First just behind on 4.4%. The Greens outpolled Family First in three out of four areas, with Family First outpolling the Greens in the west of the seat.

Voter group FF % GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Gawler 3.48 5.42 51.87 8,947 56.43
Evanston 5.15 4.68 55.20 3,163 19.95
West 6.50 4.42 52.47 2,693 16.99
North and East 2.76 5.23 50.86 1,052 6.64
Other votes 5.30 6.09 55.89 4,584
Two-party-preferred votes in Light at the 2010 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Light at the 2010 state election.

7 COMMENTS

  1. A very good local member here but it will be a big ask to limit the swing given Piccolo achieved a swing toward him in 2010.

    It would be a loss for Labor if Piccolo went.

  2. Buckby wasn’t a minister in the 2002-2004 period, as the Liberals were out of office, although he was a shadow minister.

  3. Actually Buckby suffered a swing much less than the trend in 2006 so the 2010 result was actually a correction. No reason to expect a correction this time. Urbanisation and more time with sitting member will favour the ALP here.

  5. My prediction: Likely Liberal gain, with the potential for an above average Liberal swing, for similar reasons to Mawson.

  6. The Liberals will win. I note with interest that when Malcolm Buckby held this seat for the Liberals in 2002, he actually defeated Annette Hurley, who was then the Deputy Leader of the Labor Party Opposition – she later ended up in the Senate.

  7. Do any of the commentators have any direct expperience of Light or are you just supposing what will happen.

Comments are closed.