Lee – SA 2014

ALP 7.6%

Incumbent MP
Michael Wright, since 1997.

Map of Lee's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Lee’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Northern Adelaide. Lee covers the suburbs of Birkenhead, Ethelton, Exeter, Glanville, Sempahore, Sempahore Park, Seaton, Semaphore South, Tennyson, West Lakes, West Lakes Shore, and parts of Largs Bay and Peterhead.

Redistribution
Lee expanded slightly, gaining the balance of Seaton from Cheltenham. The ALP’s margin increased from 7.1% to 7.6%.

History
Lee was created at the 1993 election. The seat was first won by the Liberal Party’s Joe Rossi in 1993, and was then won by the ALP’s Michael Wright in 1997.

Michael Wright was re-elected in 2002, 2006 and 2010. He served as a minister from 2002 to 2011.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Michael Wright is not running for re-election. The ALP is running Stephen Mullighan. The Liberal Party is running Liz Davies. Gary Johanson, mayor of Port Adelaide Enfield, is running as an independent. The Greens are running Jo Seater. Family First are running Denis Power.

Assessment
The ALP holds the seat by 7.9%, which should be safe, barring a landslide victory for the Liberal Party. The presence of high-profile independent Johanson should make the race more interesting – he polled a healthy 24% in a race without a Liberal at the 2012 Port Adelaide by-election, it is difficult to predict how he will perform in Lee.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Wright ALP 9,734 46.3 -12.4
Sue Gow LIB 7,263 34.5 +9.0
Yesha Joshi GRN 1,716 8.2 +0.2
Richard Bunting FF 767 3.6 -0.8
Bob Briton IND 608 2.9 +2.9
Colin Thomas IND 492 2.3 +2.3
Joe Rossi IND 455 2.2 +2.2

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Michael Wright ALP 12,008 57.1 -12.7
Sue Gow LIB 9,027 42.9 +12.7
Polling places in Lee at the 2010 state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Lee at the 2010 state election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south. Booths in Port Adelaide Enfield council area have been grouped as north. Those booths in Charles Sturt council area have been split between central and south.

The ALP won a majority in all three areas, ranging from just under 51% in the centre, to over 66% in the north. The Greens polled much more strongly, with 11.5% in the north, compared to 5.5% in the centre and 4.9% in the south.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
North 11.53 66.10 7,321 42.67
Central 5.54 50.97 5,829 33.97
South 4.91 53.80 4,009 23.36
Other votes 8.64 55.16 4,257
Two-party-preferred results in Lee at the 2010 state election. Click to enlarge.
Two-party-preferred results in Lee at the 2010 state election. Click to enlarge.

4 COMMENTS

  2. My prediction: Likely Labor retain, although Gary Johanson, Mayor of Port Adelaide, is running as an independent, and having polled strongly in the 2012 Port Adelaide by-election, could make things more interesting than usual.

  3. I think that Labor will hold, despite a decent swing away upon the retirement of the sitting Labor member – the same goes for some other vacant Labor seats on safer margins.

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