Heysen – SA 2014

LIB 16.5%

Incumbent MP
Isobel Redmond, since 2002.

Geography
Regional South Australia. Heysen covers areas to the south-east of Adelaide, including the suburbs and towns of Aldgate, Bridgewater, Crafers, Cherry Gardens, Clarendon, Echunga, Kangarilla, Macclesfield and Stirling. The electorate covers the southernmost parts of the Adelaide Hills and Mount Barker council areas, as well as northern parts of Alexandrina council area.

Map of Heysen's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Heysen’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Heysen underwent minor changes, gaining areas west of Ironbark from Fisher.

History
Heysen has existed since the 1985 election, and had previously existed from 1970 to 1977. The seat has always been held by the Liberal Party. The seat has been a stronghold for the Australian Democrats in the past, with the party coming close to winning at the 1997 election.

William McAnaney won the seat for the first time in 1970 for the Liberal and Country League. McAnaney had held the seat of Stirling from 1963 to 1970.

McAnaney retired at the 1975 election, and was succeeded in Heysen by David Wotton. Wotton had to move to the seat of Murray in 1977 when Heysen was abolished, and returned to the restored Heysen in 1985, when Murray was abolished.

At the 1997 election, the Australian Democrats came second in Heysen, achieving a two-candidate-preferred vote of 48.1%. This was followed by a 46% figure in 2002.

At the 2002 election, Wotton retired and Heysen was won by Isobel Redmond.

Redmond was promoted to the Liberal frontbench in 2004, and was elected Liberal leader in 2009. She led the Liberal Party to the 2010 election, when they won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote but failed to win enough seats to win the election. She continued to serve as Leader of the Opposition until her resignation in January 2013.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Isobel Redmond is running for re-election. The Greens are running Lynton Vonow. Dignity for Disability are running Amy Park.

Assessment
On paper, Heysen is a very safe Liberal seat, and Redmond should have no trouble winning re-election in 2014.

The seat is the strongest seat in South Australia for the Greens, and it is possible that there could be a result where the Greens overtake Labor, and could perform more strongly on a two-candidate basis than the ALP has managed in the past. With both Labor and the Greens on the downswing, it is not clear which party will poll second on primary votes. Whatever happens here, it won’t be an immediate threat to Redmond.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Isobel Redmond LIB 12,519 58.0 +13.7
Stephanie Gheller ALP 4,278 19.8 -6.9
Lynton Vonow GRN 3,662 17.0 +0.3
John Day FF 728 3.4 -3.1
Andrew Castrique DEM 416 1.9 -3.1

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Isobel Redmond LIB 14,368 66.5 +11.6
Stephanie Gheller ALP 7,235 33.5 -11.6
Polling places in Heysen at the 2010 state election. Central in orange, North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Heysen at the 2010 state election. Central in orange, North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south. Polling places in the Adelaide Hills have been grouped as ‘north’, and those in Alexandrina council area have been grouped as ‘south’. Those in Mount Barker and Onkaparinga council areas have been grouped as ‘central’.

The Liberal Party won a large majority in all three areas, ranging from 64% in the north to 69.4% in the south.

The Greens came third in Heysen, with a vote ranging from 10.1% in the south to 21.9% in the north. The Greens overtook the ALP in the north of the seat.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North 21.90 63.97 8,319 48.09
Central 14.27 68.71 5,327 30.79
South 10.07 69.38 3,654 21.12
Other votes 16.55 66.26 4,303
Two-party-preferred votes in Heysen at the 2010 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Heysen at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Heysen at the 2010 state election.
Greens primary votes in Heysen at the 2010 state election.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Heysen is a seat that suffers from “Safe Seat Syndrome “Very little attention is paid to it by the incumbent member.The other Major Party cannot be bothered fielding a candidate,and if one is found it is a”paper candidate” that provides no real alternative.Perhaps this explains the rise of the Green vote in this electorate. Heysen is part of the Federal electorate of Mayo,which shares many similar characteristics to Indi.The voters of Indi solved the problem by throwing the incumbent out and making Indi marginal.Swinging seats are given greater attention !

  3. As nomination draw to a close a Labor Candidate appears-a token gesture-simply reinforcing the incumbents’ view The seat is mine, Why work too hard ? the voters are fools!
    Wake up Heysen electors,Change your vote.Look at the Federal examples of Indi, New England and Dennison The squeaky wheel gets the oil

  4. About the only thing your posts are missing is the word “sheeple”. This part of Adelaide was very far from being safe for the Libs in the 80’s and 90’s… they’ve only been able to rest easy lately now that the Democrats have flamed out. I bet David Wotton had to work plenty hard keeping the seat blue in 1997, while his govt lost its majority. (Also remember the Dems came close to taking Mayo off Alexander Downer in 1998.)

    This was also a very strong area for Nick Xenophon last year – his three best seats were Boothby, Mayo and Sturt, the general Adelaide hills region where the Dems used to do well. He seems to have inherited a fair few of those voters.

  5. Despite some close calls in the past the seats of Heysen, Kavel ,Finniss and Federally ,Mayo are now very safe seats and are infected by S.S.S.(safe seat syndrome).Here is one symptom.
    Libs announcement of $9.5m for a dedicated wine trail from McLaren Vale to the Clare Valley.The Labs response ‘We announced this last year’.Cash and assistance for the Southern and Northern marginal seats. Adelaide Hills and Langehorne Creek wine regions completely out of the equation.
    During the 2013 Federal campaign the Member for Mayo was crying poverty when pushed for much needed infrastructure spending for Mt Barker, meanwhile his leader was promising ‘bucket loads’ in the adjacent seat of Boothy (a marginal seat).
    The voters move to a ‘ one person’ party in the Upper house has no effect on SSS unless they hold the balance of power in the chamber.A swinging seat is the only cure!

Comments are closed.