Flinders – SA 2014

LIB 26.2%

Incumbent MP
Peter Treloar, since 2010.

Geography
Flinders covers western parts of South Australia. The electorate covers the South Australian coastline from Franklin Harbour to the Western Australian border, covering the Eyre Peninsula and the Nullabor Plain. The largest town in the seat is Port Lincoln, as well as the towns of Ceduna, Cleve, Cummins, Elliston, Port Lincoln, Streaky Bay and Tumby Bay.

Redistribution
Minor changes to the north-western boundary, gaining a small area from Giles which covers no polling places.

History
The electorate of Flinders has existed as a single-member electorate since 1938. In that time the seat has never been held by the ALP. For most of its history, Flinders has been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessor, apart from a period when it was held by the National Party.

The seat in 1938 was won by Edward Craigie, who had been an MP in the area for the Single Tax League since 1930.

Craigie lost in 1941 to the Liberal and Country League’s Rex Pearson. The seat was then held by the LCL continuously from 1941 to 1973.

The National Party’s Peter Blacker won the seat in 1973. He was the sole National MP in the South Australian parliament during his time in the seat. He held the seat until his defeat in 1993. The 1993 election saw the inclusion of Kangaroo Island in Flinders for the first time, before it was removed in 1997.

Liz Penfold defeated Blacker in 1993, winning the seat back for the Liberal Party. She held the seat until her retirement in 2010.

The Liberal Party’s Peter Treloar won the seat in 2010.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Peter Treloar is running for re-election. The Greens are running Felicity Wright. Family First are running Grant Wilson.

• Felicity Wright (Greens)
• Peter Treloar (Liberal)
• Grant Wilson (Family First)
• Mathew Deane (Labor)

Assessment
Flinders is a very safe Liberal seat. The electorate is one of the strongest seats in the state for the National Party, and if they overtook the ALP this would significantly reduce the Liberal Party’s margin, but would not be threatening. It is quite conceivable, depending on the campaign, that the Nationals could come second in Flinders in 2014.

2010 result

2010 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four parts. A large proportion of the population lies in the Port Lincoln area. The other local government areas have been split along the following lines:

• East – Cleve, Franklin Harbour and Tumby Bay
• North – Ceduna, Le Hunte and Streaky Bay
• West – Elliston and Lower Eyre Peninsula.

The Liberal Party won a slim majority of the primary vote in Port Lincoln (although a much larger majority with Nationals preferences).

The Liberal Party polled large primary vote majorities in the other areas, ranging from 61.3% in the west to 66% in the east.

The ALP came second in the electorate, largely due to a strong performance in Port Lincoln, with 20.4%. The Nationals polled a higher vote than the ALP in the other three parts of the seat, ranging from 12.1% in the north to 19.3% in the west. The ALP’s vote in the rest of the seat ranged from 9.8% in the east to 11.9% in the north.