ALP 3.6%
Incumbent MP
Paul Caica, since 2002.
Geography
Western suburbs of Adelaide. Colton covers the suburbs of Fulham, Fulham Gardens, Grange, Henley Beach, Henley Beach South, Kidman Park as well as parts of Findon, Lockleys and Seaton.
Redistribution
Colton maintained all of its previous territory, and gained more of the suburb of Lockleys from West Torrens. This reduced the ALP’s margin from 4% to 3.6%.
History
Colton has existed since the 1993 election, and is the only seat to have always been held by the sitting government since that time.
Steve Condous, the lord mayor of Adelaide, won the seat in 1993 for the Liberal Party. He retained the seat by a narrow margin in 1997.
In 2002, Condous retired and was replaced by the ALP’s Paul Caica. Caica was elected in 2006, and was then promoted to the ministry. Caica served in the ministry until early 2013.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Paul Caica is running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Joe Barry. The Greens are running Andrew Payne. Family First are running Kym McKay.
- Paul Caica (Labor)
- Joe Barry (Liberal)
- Andrew Payne (Greens)
- Kym McKay (Family First)
Assessment
Colton is a marginal Labor seat.
2010 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Paul Caica | ALP | 9,862 | 46.5 | -11.2 |
Peter Morichovitis | LIB | 8,393 | 39.6 | +10.1 |
Jim Douglas | GRN | 1,735 | 8.2 | +2.4 |
Denis Power | FF | 754 | 3.6 | -0.7 |
Yiannis Stamos | FLT | 444 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Paul Caica | ALP | 11,432 | 54.0 | -12.1 |
Peter Morichovitis | LIB | 9,756 | 46.0 | +12.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, south and west. All booths in Unley council area have been grouped in east, with all booths in West Torrens council area grouped in west. Those in Marion and Mitcham council areas have been grouped as south.
The ALP won in all three areas, ranging from 52.4% in the east to 56.6% in the west. The Greens vote varied from just under 8% in the west, to 15.4% in the east.
Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes | |
Fulham-Henley | 8.67 | 54.10 | 7,601 | 44.33 | |
Seaton | 8.35 | 56.15 | 5,638 | 32.88 | |
East | 5.89 | 51.77 | 3,908 | 22.79 | |
Other votes | 9.28 | 52.73 | 4,041 |
My prediction: Likely Liberal gain, given the bellwether history here.
Prediction: Liberal Gain
This seat is a 50-50 neck-and-neck race, according to a recent electorate poll:
http://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/ex-labor-minister-paul-caicas-appeal-keep-colton-hopes-alive-for-poll/story-fnii5yv4-1226842653845
The Liberals will win in a close one.