ALP 16.0%
Incumbent MP
Jay Weatherill, since 2002.
Geography
Northwestern Adelaide. Cheltenham covers the suburbs of Alberton, Albert Park, Athol Park, Cheltenham, Findon, Hendon, Pennington, Queenstown, Royal Park, Woodville, Woodville North, Woodville South, Woodville West and parts of Port Adelaide and Rosewater. Most of the electorate lies in the Charles Sturt council area, as well as a small part of the Port Adelaide Enfield area.
Redistribution
Cheltenham gained the balance of Findon from Croydon, and lost the remainder of Seaton to Lee. The ALP’s margin was cut from 16.1% to 6.0%.
History
Cheltenham has existed since the 2002 election. Cheltenham was a new name for Price, which had existed since 1985.
Murray De Laine won Price at the 1985 election. When the electorate was renamed Cheltenham, De Laine was challenged for Labor Party preselection by Jay Weatherill.
De Laine resigned from the ALP in 2001, and contested the seat as an independent, polling 9.7% and losing to Weatherill.
Weatherill was appointed to the ministry following the 2002 election, and served in the ministry through the 2006 and 2010 elections.
After the 2010 election, Weatherill challenged ALP deputy leader Kevin Foley unsuccessfully.
Following further setbacks in the polls, the ALP’s factional leaders backed Weatherill to take over from Mike Rann in 2011, and he became Premier in October 2011.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Jay Weatherill is running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Jack Batty. The Greens are running Rebecca Galdies. Family First are running Alex Tennikoff.
- Jack Batty (Liberal)
- Rebecca Galdies (Greens)
- Jay Weatherill (Labor)
- Alex Tennikoff (Family First)
Assessment
Cheltenham is a very safe Labor seat.
2010 result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Jay Weatherill | ALP | 11,326 | 56.2 | -6.9 |
James Bourke | LIB | 4,912 | 24.4 | +7.2 |
Henrietta Child | IND | 1,551 | 7.7 | +7.7 |
Paul Downton | GRN | 1,280 | 6.3 | +0.5 |
Walter Shigrov | FF | 1,091 | 5.4 | -4.1 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Jay Weatherill | ALP | 13,328 | 66.1 | -9.4 |
James Bourke | LIB | 6,833 | 33.9 | +9.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas: Findon, Royal Park, Woodville, and booths at the northern end of the seat.
The ALP won a majority in all four areas, ranging from 63% in Findon to 69.6% in the north of the electorate.
Independent candidate Henrietta Child came third, ranging from 3.1% in Findon to 10.1% in Woodville.
Voter group | IND % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
North | 9.76 | 69.64 | 5,821 | 34.53 |
Woodville | 10.13 | 64.59 | 5,106 | 30.29 |
Royal Park | 4.57 | 67.05 | 3,126 | 18.55 |
Findon | 3.14 | 63.00 | 2,803 | 16.63 |
Other votes | 5.16 | 63.45 | 4,167 |
I can see a swing to Labor happening here, as it’s the Premier’s seat, plus the large pro-Liberal swing in 2010, although Cheltenham’s 2010 swing wasn’t as large as Ramsay’s or Port Adelaide’s.
My prediction: Labor retain.