Chaffey – SA 2014

LIB 3.8% vs NAT

Incumbent MP
Tim Whetstone, since 2010.

Geography
Regional South Australia. Chaffey covers the ‘Riverlands’ along the Murray River to the east of Adelaide, on the Victorian and NSW boundary.

Redistribution
Chaffey expanded south, gaining all of Southern Mallee council area, and the remainder of Karoonda East Murray council area, both from the electorate of Hammond. The Liberal margin over the ALP increased from 27.9% to 28.1%, although the main competition comes from the Nationals.

History
The electorate of Chaffey has existed since the 1938 election. The seat has gone through four periods: independent rule until the 1950s, marginal seat from 1956 to 1973, Liberal rule from 1973 to 1997, and National Party rule from 1997 to 2010.

Peter Arnold held the seat for the Liberal and Country League and then the Liberal Party from 1968 to 1970 and from 1973 until his retirement in 1993.

The Liberal Party’s Kent Andrew won Chaffey in 1993. At the 1997 election, Andrew lost to the National Party’s Karlene Maywald.

Maywald was elected with a strong margin in 2002, and in that hung parliament supported the Liberal Party in their unsuccessful bid to continue in government. Despite this decision, Maywald accepted an offer in 2004 to serve as a minister in the Rann Labor government.

While Maywald’s decision was controversial, she increased her margin at the 2006 election. She continued in the ministry after the 2006 election, despite the Rann government having a solid majority in the House of Assembly. Her support in the electorate dropped substantially after the 2006 election.

At the 2010 election, Maywald suffered a 15% swing away from her and to the Liberal candidate on the primary vote, and a 20% swing after preferences, which saw Liberal candidate Tim Whetstone elected after preferences with a 3.8% margin.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Tim Whetstone is running for re-election. The Greens are running Jason Garrood. Family First are running Yvonne Zeppel.

• Jason Garrood (Greens)
• Mahanbir Grewal (Labor)
• Yvonne Zeppel (Family First)
• Tim Whetstone (Liberal)

Assessment
Chaffey is very safe from any possible Labor threat, and on paper is the strongest seat for the Liberal Party in the state against the ALP. The margin, however, is much slimmer against the National Party. The Liberal Party should benefit from the loss of the National Party MP’s personal vote which was still present in 2010, and the strong position of the Liberal Party in current circumstances.

2010 result

2010 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts. Most of the population lies in one small part of the seat in the Riverlands at the northern end of the seat. These booths were split between Berri Barmera and Renmark. The remainder of the seat has been grouped as ‘south’, which has the largest population but is much less densely-populated.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the primary vote, with just under 52%, in the south. The Liberal Party also topped the primary vote with 43-45% in the other two areas. The Nationals came second in all three areas, ranging from 31.9% in the south to 37.7% in Berri Barmera.

Family First came third in the seat, but only stayed ahead of the ALP in Renmark, with 10.9%. The ALP narrowly overtook Family First in the south and Berri Barmera.