Bright – SA 2014

ALP 0.5%

Incumbent MP
Chloë Fox (ALP), since 2006.

Geography
Southern Adelaide. Bright covers the suburbs of Hove, Brighton, Seacliff, Seacliff Park, Marino, Hallett Cove, South Brighton, North Brighton and Kingston Park.

Map of Bright's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Bright’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Bright’s northern boundaries were shifted slightly around Somerton Park, swapping territory with Morphett. This redistribution increased the ALP’s margin from 0.4% to 0.5%.

History
The seat of Bright has existed since the 1985 election. The seat was won by Labor at the 1985 election, and was then held by the Liberal Party from 1989 to 2006. The ALP has held the seat for the last two terms.

Derek Robertson won the seat for the ALP in 1985.

In 1989, the seat was won by the Liberal Party’s Wayne Matthew. Matthew served as a minister from 1993 until 2002, except for a period from 1996 to 1997. He retired in 2006.

Liberal MLC Angus Redford planned to move to the lower house in Bright in 2006, but lost in a shock result to the ALP’s Chloë Fox with a huge 14.4% swing.

Fox was re-elected in 2010, but suffered a 6.2% swing back towards the Liberal Party, holding on by 0.4%. That slim margin was wiped out by the recent redistribution. Fox has served as a minister since 2011.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Chloë Fox is  running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running David Speirs. The Greens are running Jamie Ryan. Family First are running Steve Price.

Assessment
Bright will be very difficult for the ALP to hold in 2014, if election results reflect current polling.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Maria Kourtesis LIB 9,415 44.0 +6.6
Chloë Fox ALP 9,022 42.2 -5.4
Graham Goss GRN 1,669 7.8 +0.9
Kevin Cramp FF 601 2.8 -1.3
Meredith Stock RAH 298 1.4 +1.4
Nick Kalogiannis FLT 194 0.9 +0.9
Shane Roos IND 188 0.9 +0.9

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Chloë Fox ALP 10,777 50.4 -6.2
Maria Kourtesis LIB 10,610 49.6 +6.2
Polling places in Bright at the 2010 state election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Bright at the 2010 state election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority in two out of three areas. The Liberal Party won 51.2% of the two-party vote in Central, and 57.8% in the north of the seat. The ALP won 56.1% in the south of the seat. The ALP won a slim majority amongst special votes.

The Greens came third in Bright. The Greens polled between 8% and 9% in the centre and the north, compared to 5.5% in the south.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Central 8.88 51.20 7,637 43.18
South 5.54 43.87 5,943 33.60
North 8.45 57.79 4,106 23.22
Other votes 8.62 49.86 5,175
Map of Bright's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Two-party-preferred votes in Bright at the 2010 state election.

3 COMMENTS

  2. My prediction: Liberal gain, while Chloe Fox managed to hold on narrowly last time, I can’t see her holding on in 2014.

  3. Regardless of whether or not the Labor Party or the Liberal Party holds this seat notionally, it’s an easy Liberal gain.

Comments are closed.