Thuringowa – Queensland 2024

KAP have announced their candidate for this seat at Clynton Hawks. Clynton Hawks ran under the KAP banner at the 2022 Federal Election in the seat of Herbert (which overlaps the three Townsville Seats). Clynton hass been raising his profile organising rallies which included one a last month near where the Premier was holding a meeting and the current MP (Aaron Harper – ALP) also turned up for a short spiel at the crowd.

Full article here: https://kap.org.au/kap-sends-in-hawks-to-drive-change-for-thuringowa/

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I was looking into Thuringowa… and honestly… North Queensland politics feels a little like Tasmania with how similar names pop up. Looking at the results and history of this seat and surrounding ones begins like this: Thuringowa is the KAP’s best chance of the 3 Townsville seats with 16.12% in the 2020 Election (Townsville 11.27% and Mundingburra 12.16%). Thuringowa was almost won by KAP back in 2012 when they burst onto the scene with 30.13% primary and on 2CP lost 48.62% to the LNP’s 51.38%. The LNP candidate was Sam Cox, who was a one-termer MP in the Newman government before loosing to Aaron Harper [ALP] the current MP in 2015.

Sam Cox went on to contest the 2017 Election in Burdekin for ONP and then 2020 Election in Burdekin for KAP (and as an Independent for Townsville Mayor in 2020). In that same 2017 election that Aaron Harper was elected for Thuringowa, was Jeff Knuth as the ONP Candidate. Jeff Knuth was the ONP MP for Burdekin 1998-2001, re-contesting as an IND 2004 and was the KAP candidate for Hinchinbrook, narrowly loosing 46.37% to LNP’s 53.63%. Oh, and Jeff’s brother is the current KAP MP for Hill, Shane Knuth!! And Clynton Hawks ran as the NQF candidate in Townsville for the 2020 Election.

You just can’t make this stuff up!
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As for prospects in this seat:
In 2020 I was a little bullish in my predictions here as I really thought the ALP was going to loose at least 1, if not, all 3 seats Townsville seats. In very simple terms, what saved the ALP was a collapse in the ONP vote, with people coming back to ALP & LNP in even amounts in Townsville & Mundingburra. The vote came back more-so for the LNP in Thuringwoa, but only made a small dent in the 2PP. All 3 seats have similar stories with primary vote (ALP & LNP both in 30%s), seat margin (3-4% for each) and primary vote differential between LNP & ALP (6% Thuringowa, 3% Townsville, 6% Mundingburra).

Looking at the results in Herbert (Federal 2022) and current polling, you’d think at least one will be gone, and LNP would need all 3 to really start their path to Government. Townsville seems the best on paper but I’ll put my heart on Thuringowa to be the one that falls. [EDIT: Thuringowa has the lowest total % for the major party vote out of the 3 townsville seats + burdekin.] ALP have been known as good margin campaigners and with just under a year to go, anything can happen, this is one seat to watch. {That’s my 5 cents worth.}

What are the odds that KAP will pick up this seat?

It depends on whether it can win over Labor and ONP voters and even win over LNP voters. A 20% swing to KAP on primaries isn’t out of the ordinary. It happened in Hinchinbrook in 2020 and in Hill in 2017. A strong KAP campaign could force the LNP to run dead in Thuringowa and focus on lower hanging fruit that are ALP vs LNP contests.

@Votante not much because it’s an urban seat. KAP does better in the outback and in rural areas. The biggest city with a strong KAP vote is Mount Isa.

While it may be the best chance of a KAP gain in Townsville I still highly doubt it. They’d get Cook before this.

I think the KAP candidate for this seat is very well known due to his role in organising youth crime rallies. So will be interesting to see the swing, especially with youth crime being such a hot topic in Townsville.

There is no way on earth the LNP will run dead in Thuringowa when it’s a Labor seat that they have a credible chance of winning.

Agree Wilson, the result in this seat with a strong KAP candidate could be like 2012 which was a 3-way tie between them, Labor and the LNP.

It could end up splitting votes in a three-way contest and fracturing the vote of one or both majors.

@Nether Portal, I agree that KAP does better in large, rural seats. The KAP candidate has a high-profile and as mentioned above, he has a big presence at youth crime rallies in Townsville. I do see him doing well and scoring a swing but may fall short of victory.

It will be interesting to see where KAP target resources. Unions or even Labor themselves may be able to convince them to run hard in Burdekin and Whitsunday to disrupt the LNP’s path back to government. That may also be the case for the Townsville 3 if Labor see them as lost causes, but I would think they would try hang on there. I’m not sure which seats the LNP would be hoping for KAP to dislodge Labor in, instead of doing it themselves.

Clynton Hawks has been dumped! Article is behind a paywall so not sure of reason. Stupid move by the KAP and now guaranteeing an LNP win.

https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=CMWEB_WRE170_MG_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.couriermail.com.au%2Fnews%2Ftownsville%2Fkick-in-guts-thuringowa-candidate-clynton-hawks-dropped-from-katter-australias-party%2Fnews-story%2F17c35aaa79bcac49c2e9deb0204fbfff&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=ULTRALOW-Segment-2-SCORE

@AA the LNP were always winning this. Also, as a subscriber I can say the reason was because the KAP apparently found a better candidate.

I recommend using https://archive.md to bypass paywalls. Here’s the link to this article, without the paywall: https://archive.md/EGQnO

Yes, but the KAP put up a serious competition with Clynton Hawks. The LNP would’ve had to work especially hard to stop too many votes going to the KAP. I think it would’ve been a three-way race with Clynton in the mix. Especially because of his popularity as a youth crime rally organiser.

I put a link to a paywall-free version of the article but the comment is still awaiting moderation. The article explains it a bit further.

All good, thanks. Will be interesting to see

It’s been reviewed. Feel free to have a look.

Again, to bypass paywalls I highly recommend using that site. Although it can take a few minutes to load if the webpage isn’t archived (it’s a bit like the Wayback Machine in that it archives webpages), it’s worth it since it completely removes the paywall for all Australian news sites.

Predictions:

Primaries:
LNP: 42.0% (+11.6%)
Labor: 23.6% (–13.2%)
KAP: 17.0% (+0.9%)
One Nation: 9.4% (–0.4%)
Greens: 5.2% (+0.2%)

TPP:
LNP: 61.2% (+14.4%)
Labor: 38.9% (–14.4%)

The swing against Labor here will be big, matching the broader trend showing a massive swing against Labor in regional areas. My predictions above show the One Nation vote slightly dropping and the KAP vote slightly increasing, as well as the Greens vote slightly increasing. However, the most noticeable change is the amount of Labor voters casting their votes for the LNP.

Crisafulli, although currently Gold Coast-based, will have more appeal in Townsville (and in North Queensland in general) than Newman as he was born and raised in Townsville (he also supports the North Queensland Cowboys in the NRL), served as a councillor for the Townsville City Council and was the member for Mundingburra from 2012 to 2015.

@Nether Portal – thanks for the link to the article
@AA – thanks for breaking this news. I am shocked at this as I agree with you, the KAP really had a chance with Clynton Hawks. Outside the 4 KAP MPs, he was their highest profile candidate, with his profile being built up during his Herbert election run for KAP in 2022 Federal Election, his current run, his advocacy and previous state run (NQF Party – 2020 Townsville).

The article has a comment from Mr Hawks that alludes to him running still, but under a different banner. The key line being, “he’d (Clynton) spent five years building up this election, and wasn’t going to pack up his ambitions just yet, telling residents they should “watch this space”.” If he runs as an IND or with ONP, it could still have a significant impact on this seat. Anyone else up for a 2017 Hinchinbrook style result?

I think KAP is taking a gamble but it looks like they’re serious about this seat. Is there a possibility that Clynton will run in a neighbouring non-KAP seat?

If KAP wins a seat or 2 in Townsville, Crisafulli will have no choice but to promise a NQ statehood referendum (And the feds as well since I think it also has to be up to them) but KAP wants NQ statehood.

I don’t see the LNP getting in the way as it means more senators for them. But Labor may be disadvantaged.

Yes I agree that Hawks was the best chance for the KAP to win another seat.

@Politics_Obsessed and @Votante both of you could be right. I think there’s two options here – either he runs in Thuringowa as an independent or for ONP, or he’ll run for the KAP in another seat. I’m not actually sure whether he’s quit as a member of the KAP or not.

Hawks has been replying to people on FB, who still want him as an candidate, saying ” stay tuned more to come”. So there’s a good chance he’s chose one of the three options.

Ok apologies for the continuous commenting, but Clynton has given a heart reaction to a FB comment saying “would love you to be a One Nation candidate”. So could definitely be a chance.

Clinton has posted on FB about the $1000 electricity rebate saying that “Steven Miles is Queenslands biggest sugar-daddy & he thinks you are a cheap date.” This is the exact same phrase that James Ashby has used on Facebook two days ago. I’m sensing he’ll run for ONP.

@AA your two most recent comments all point to him running for One Nation.

Yep exactly, that’s what I’m sensing. Will certainly make Thuringowa an interesting seat, especially when the KAP announces their new candidate.

Ahead of the 2017 election, people were predicting Labor would get wiped out in Townsville. Ahead of the 2020 election, people were predicting Labor would get wiped out in Townsville.

In both elections, they held onto all three seats.

I accept that there is more reason to believe that they will lose this time than in 2017 and 2020, but it seems pundits have been off the mark about Townsville in the recent past. Why is this?

Nicholas, because people keep tying the LNP’s success in Herbert as a reason why the LNP will win here.

Yet people called Labors win in Herbert in 2016 a “Fluke” they know nothing about the voters in this region. Quite frankly. Townsville wants to be left alone and not told what to do.

I think people need to do more research on the demographics and the region as a whole before they make absurd predictions and overstating parties chances at elections just because they support that party.

I acknowledge that I have made absurd predictions, but I admit that, and I am still learning and doing allot of research on this fascinating topic. I am young.

I do agree the LNP will win at least 2/3 seats, this time. But all 3 is a push unless the landslide comes to fruition.

@Daniel T even if it’s not a landslide I still think the LNP will win all three Townsville seats.

It is true that Labor’s 2016 victory was a bit of a fluke given that the 37 vote margin was due to preference leakage from minor parties (the Palmer United Party preferenced Labor in Herbert in 2016, note that this was actually the only seat the party contested in 2016).

In 2017 and 2020 I didn’t predict wipeouts in Townsville but I did predict that the LNP would win at least one seat in Townsville (they almost won the seat of Townsville itself in 2017 but were just short).

But now that Herbert is safer than Moncrieff (a blue-ribbon seat on the Gold Coast that covers suburbs such as Surfers Paradise), surely that means something.

Personal vote very important in regional cities like Townsville Mackay and Cairns… look at Herbert.. swing to Labor in Qld but Herbert swung to the libs

Mick, having a strong personal vote means nothing if the election turns out to be a wipeout/landslide loss for the incumbent party. Popular Labor incumbents in NSW and Queensland seats ended up losing in 2011 and 2012 respectively despite keeping the swing below average for their districts. The same can also be said for NSW in 2023 where decent, scandal free Coalition MPs like Stuart Ayres in Penrith and Nicholle Overall in Monaro lost to Labor challengers.

I believe Queensland 2024 will be a mirror image of the 2023 NSW election, where there is some fatigue setting in with a ‘time for change’ mood amongst locals. It won’t be a total wipeout or landslide, but a significant swing against the incumbent government.

@Yoh A polling looks like an LNP landslide. NSW in 2023 elected a hung parliament.

Labor’s vote will be in freefall here and will splinter three ways. Whilst most will go directly to the LNP, putting them in first place on primaries, some will also spray to KAP and PHON.

If KAP and PHON preference the LNP over Labor, this will end up as a 60-40 TPP to the LNP. If PHON’s preferences flow strongly enough to KAP for them to somehow leapfrog Labor into second, KAP could pull off a surprise victory – but that’s very much an outside chance.

The Candidacy of One Nation’s Matthew Millar has been suspended in order to give “the opportunity to gather material to respond to claims concerning a previous relationship”, pending a party investigation. https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/matthew-millar-one-nation-suspend-thuringowa-candidates-election-campaign/news-story/70b7473000ad38371a56c17d4f19d7b8?amp

@Yoh A can’t believe I missed that comment.

How the hell was the NSW Labor government that lost in 2011 even remotely “popular”?

The Nielsen poll released on election day had the Coalition with 64% TPP (50% on primaries), compared to 36% for Labor (22% on primaries). Literally the only thing boosting Labor’s TPP was the fact that the Greens had 13% of the primary vote and others had 15%.

In the same poll, Barry O’Farrell was the preferred Premier by 53% of respondents, compared to 37% for Kristina Keneally.

Also in the same poll, Kristina Keneally had a net negative approval rating of –17% (54% disapproval, 37% approval), while Barry O’Farrell had a +19% approval rating (53% approval, 34% disapproval).

The last poll where Keneally was preferred Premier was a Newspoll conducted in May and June 2010. This was also the last poll where she had a net positive approval rating. In contrast, the last poll where Barry O’Farrell had a net negative approval rating was a Newspoll conducted in March and April 2009.

So it’s pretty clear that the NSW Labor government that lost the worst ever defeat of a sitting NSW government in history (and one of the worst in Australian history) was deeply unpopular.

@NP I think you’ve missed their point. What Yoh was saying was that a strong personal vote still won’t be enough to save an MP if the election is a landslide, and justified it by referencing individual MPs who were personally popular in their electorates, evidenced by having lower swings against them than the statewide average, having lost their seats at the 2011 election.

@Oguh yeah but still. Also those MPs were Coalition MPs who narrowly lost their seats in 2023.

What do you mean by “but still”? Yoh never claimed that NSW Labor were popular in 2011, just individual MPs, and the fact that those Coalition MPs also narrowly lost their seats at the last election where there was a significant albeit smaller swing than 2011 against the Liberals statewide is perhaps also a sign of their personal popularity, and supports Yoh’s point?

Former KAP candidate, Clynton Hawks, has confirmed he will not run, and has thrown all his support behind the LNP. Which is interesting given he has criticised both the two-party system even after his dis-endorsement, and has made/liked several FB comments alluding to supporting One Nation and other minor parties.

@AA he is a very confused man indeed.

Santa clause won here in 1998

@Mick Quinlivan are you linking Ken Turner to Santa Claus?

@Nether Portal he was a shopping centre Santa, and “Santa” was his nickname in parliament. I was just reading one of his speeches about children with disability, he actually seemed like a really caring MP.

@AA oh I see. Thanks for clarifying.

From memory, KAP disendorsed Clynton Hawks because they apparently found a “better candidate”. KAP have a new candidate now, but still, they aren’t going to win. I thought Clynton had the most potential and a big profile and would score a higher primary vote than the new candidate.

How the libs didn’t win here in 2020 is beyond me the combined kap onp and lnp vote should have easily overwhelmed labor

Thus I a seat where opv will hurt the lnp

@John some One Nation and Katter voters preferenced Labor over the LNP. You’ve got to remember a lot of voters aren’t super invested in politics and don’t necessarily think of things in a right or left wing dynamic. Just as an example some people may align with Bob Katter and some of their policies but also believe Labor did an alright job handling COVID, and perhaps they thought the LNP candidate was not particularly likeable.

Good point. Onp and kap split almost 50/50 but probly 55/45 to lnp

On 3cp
ALP 41.7%
LNP 33.6%
KAP 24.7%

This will be a future target for KAP when the lnp are in office for voters not wanting either major party.

Redistribution wise I’d expect it to take in territory up to Nathan Street from mundingburra.

John looking at your 3cp
What is kap took a extra 11% off Labor and Labor ran 3rd?