ALP 3.2%
Incumbent MP
Aaron Harper, since 2015.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Thuringowa covers southern and western suburbs of Townsville, including Thuringowa Central, Condon, Rasmussen, Kelso and Kirwan.
History
The seat of Thuringowa has existed since 1986. The seat has been won by the ALP at all but two elections, with One Nation interrupting the Labor hold on the seat in 1998 and the LNP winning in 2012.
Thuringowa was won in 1986 by Labor MP Ken McElligott, who had been first elected in Townsville in 1983. He served as a minister in the Goss government from 1989 to 1991 and again from 1995 to 1996.
At the 1998 election, McElligott was defeated by One Nation’s Ken Turner. Turner, like every other One Nation MP elected at the 1998 election, soon left the party, becoming an independent in 1999.
Labor candidate Anita Phillips defeated Turner in 2001. She served one term before stepping down in 2004 to run for the federal seat of Herbert, unsuccessfully.
Craig Wallace retained the seat for Labor in 2004 and was re-elected in 2006 and 2009. Wallace served as a minister from 2006 to 2012.
In 2012, Wallace was defeated by LNP candidate Sam Cox. Labor suffered a 22% swing on primary votes, and dropped to third place behind Katter’s Australian Party.
Labor came back in 2015, with Labor candidate Aaron Harper defeating Cox with a 12% swing. Harper was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
Assessment
Thuringowa is a marginal Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Aaron Harper | Labor | 10,922 | 36.8 | +4.6 |
| Natalie Marr | Liberal National | 9,022 | 30.4 | +9.2 |
| Julianne Wood | Katter’s Australian Party | 4,780 | 16.1 | +0.5 |
| Jeni Alexander | One Nation | 2,907 | 9.8 | -10.4 |
| Heidi Hardisty | Greens | 1,476 | 5.0 | -0.6 |
| Michael (Blu) Turner | United Australia | 547 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Informal | 1,182 | 3.8 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Aaron Harper | Labor | 15,790 | 53.2 | |
| Natalie Marr | Liberal National | 13,864 | 46.8 |
Booths in Thuringowa have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.2% in the centre to 59% in the south.
Katter’s Australian Party came third on the primary vote, with a primary vote ranging from 14.3% in the north to 17.0% in the south.
| Voter group | KAP prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 17.0 | 59.0 | 3,608 | 12.2 |
| Central | 15.3 | 55.2 | 2,946 | 9.9 |
| North | 14.3 | 57.7 | 2,113 | 7.1 |
| Pre-poll | 16.9 | 51.9 | 12,912 | 43.5 |
| Other votes | 15.2 | 51.0 | 8,075 | 27.2 |
Election results in Thuringowa at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party, Katter’s Australian Party and One Nation.
If Labor rN 3rd this would be a kap gain. Kap will win as soon as they make the 2cp against liberal or labor
Thoughts on the likelihood of KAP running second? I’ve done up a model thats got primary votes at:
ALP – 26.1%
LNP – 37.1%
GRN – 5.5%
ONP – 9.7%
KAP – 20.2%
OTH – 2.3%
Which, assuming the same distribution as last time, results in:
ALP – 31.0%
LNP – 40.0%
KAP – 29.0%
And
ALP – 39.1%
LNP – 60.9%
This assumes KAP flows go 72% LNP, 28% ALP, which is a guess. They’ve just announced they’re preferencing LNP second, the first time they’ve ever preferenced, so theres no data on what ramifications that decision might have. Last time the flows were 53% LNP, 47% ALP, so I’m assuming many people ignore the recommendation + the ONP and GRN to KAP that would go to ALP. Thoughts on this? And the chance that KAP wins?
If kap finishes second they will likely win. But I don’t think they can this election tbh I think it’s just a bridge too far.
Question: which of the three Townsville seats will be the safest for the LNP after the election: Mundingburra, Thuringowa or Townsville? While I expect massive double digit swings in all three (thus all three will fall) currently Townsville is the most marginal and in 2017 it was almost won by the LNP.
But (especially looking at the three MPs’ personal popularity in their electorate and the federal results in Herbert) it looks like Mundingburra and Thuringowa might be safer. I’m not sure.
Scart might be able to answer this as he’s from Townsville.
They’ll all be close, but my bet would be Mundingburra. They are within 0.8% of eachother now, post election they probably won’t be more than 3% apart on 2PP. At least one of them should break 60% LNP 2PP, probably all 3.
Thuringowa.
The exit poll results had Labor almost falling behind the Katters.
@scart lonk
Should Labor poll poorly in
Townsville then it is Possible that their preferences are distributed and kap wins. People vote away from Labor but not to libs
@Mick Quinlivan well Townsville itself won’t go to KAP. Townsville itself is the more middle-class part of Townsville while the others are more working-class.
KAP continuing to oppose abortion might mean the Greens actually outpoll them in Townsville itself.
As I mentioned in the Mirani thread, apparent leaked Labor polling has KAP winning this seat, as well as Mundingburra, off of Labor preferences.
‘The Courier-Mail today relates that “leaked Labor polling” shows the party set to run third in the Townsville seats of Mundingburra (LNP 34.5%, KAP 27.4%, Labor 24.9%) and Thuringowa (LNP 33.4%, KAP 25.1%, Labor 23.7%), both of which they hold, and then deliver victory to Katter’s Australian Party on their preferences.’
It’s a very narrow primary vote lead that I don’t think will actually hold up come election day, and perhaps is even wishful thinking on behalf of the ALP. In my personal opinion if the Katter’s were ever going to win one of these urban seats, it would have been in 2012, and they missed out back then too.
Although the race has seemingly tightened I don’t think that will affect the Townsville seats much. The LNP will win all three, and I believe Townsville itself will be the most marginal, despite being the easiest to grab on paper.
@Laine, I read about polling too. Kos Samaras reckons KAP may beat LNP in some seats, though he didn’t name which ones.
@Laine @Votante I reckon the LNP will get all three Townsville seats easily. KAP won’t come second. This is mostly Herbert not Kennedy and Townsville is a metropolitan city.
Does anybody know where Natasha Lane’s preferences are being directed?
@Redistributed no idea but the LNP have her fourth.
Won’t matter lnp will win on kap and onp preferences.
Onp goes to kap.
Alp vote drops 14% primary
Half to lnp 7
Half to lnp 7
Green to alp 5….. the final destination of their 5% is unclear but it is hard for greens to preference lnp
especially if this were 46 or 47th
Seat.
Now for the lnp to win in this scenario they need to poll 45% of the vote or better. .a big ask
Now of course no one knows but this is possible and gives people a chance to vote against Labor but not vote lnp.
Possible there may be some tactical voting by alp onp and greens
My guess is this will not happen in all 3 Townsville seats.. possible in 2 and kap wins 1
Lane is Indigenous and for a Treaty, so she’s likely putting LNP last, or below KAP and Labor, at least,since they’ve LNP out any more Truth Telling if they win today.
LNP would have to do better tha 45% PV to win, imo.
For Mundingburra and Townsville and possibly Thuringowa – Natasha Lane is the wild card there. In the first round – the big issue is the margin between Labor and Katter. If the ALP is 5 or 6% over then it is all over. If it is close either way it will depend on who gets eliminated first out of the Greens and ON. If it is the Greens then their prefs will go strongly to Labor and put them ahead. If it is ON their preferences are traditionally not disciplined and will largely go the KAP as per the HTV but substantial others will go to Labor and the LNP. Katter may now be ahead but not enough buffer when the Greens prefs go to Labor in the second round. Labor might now be ahead. If the Greens go first the ON prefs ( being less disciplined) might not Katter back in front. If Katter does end up ahead, the Greens component of the Labor vote will go to the LNP and possibly put them over the line. To my mind both the Katter and LNP vote has to have a 3 in front for Katter to win.
I think the LNP will get all three Townsville seats, if the KAP kept Clynton Hawks in this seat, then maybe they would’ve had a chance at it.
Yes is a dogs breakfast
There is the possibility of green alp and onp voters voting tactically for kap.
Like re the teals north shore sydney were the lnp too good at trashing Labor here ? I wonder
The enemy of my enemy of my enemy of my enemy is my friend?
@A A Agreed, especially the Courier Mail exit poll of predominately older voters still had Labor ahead of KAP, and had an LNP primary well into the 50s. If KAP can’t beat Labor amongst older voters, they won’t win this seat.
@Scart you’ve hit the nail on the head there. KAP campaigning for abortion bans isn’t gonna do well.
Also it’s so foolish to think that Townsville itself could be won by anyone but the LNP at this election. Labor’s too unpopular and KAP don’t do well in Townsville itself, it’s Thuringowa that’s got most of their Townsville vote. And to be fair they’re not that good in Mundingburra either.
Just went and voted here in Townsville. Put the KAP above Labor, but didn’t put ON above them.
@Scart I voted early in Bonney:
1. LNP
2. One Nation
3. Family First
4. Labor
5. Greens
My Townsville based mate tells me that David Crisafulli is popular in Townsville and they see him as the home town boy
@Redistributed that’s what I’m hearing too. He’s popular here on the Gold Coast too. Finally a leader that the north and south both like. Where he needs to grow his popularity though is Brisbane.
DC grew up in Ingham which is near Townsville and represented Mundingburra from 2012 until 2015 and was a minister in the Newman government. He also supports the North Queensland Cowboys. He currently lives on the Coast and is the member for Broadwater.