LNP 16.2%
Incumbent MP
John-Paul Langbroek, since 2004.
Geography
Gold Coast. Surfers Paradise covers the central Gold Coast suburbs of Surfers Paradise, Benowa, Broadbeach, Bundall, Paradise Waters, Main Beach, the Southport Spit and parts of Ashmore.
History
The seat of Surfers Paradise has existed since 1972. Barring a single by-election, the seat has always been won by either the Country/National party or the Liberal Party, and has been held by two leaders of the conservative side of politics.
The seat was first won in 1972 by the Country Party candidate, Gold Coast mayor Bruce Small. Small stepped down as mayor in 1973 and returned to the post in 1976.
In 1977 Small was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Bruce Bishop. Bishop held the seat for one term, losing in 1980 to National Party candidate Rob Borbidge.
Borbidge was appointed to the ministry when Joh Bjelke-Petersen was replaced as Premier by Mike Ahern. Borbidge served as a minister until the National Party lost in 1989.
Borbidge was elected as National Party leader in 1991, leading the party to the 1992 and 1995 elections. In 1996, a by-election result saw the Labor Party lose its majority, and Borbidge formed a minority government in coalition with the Liberal Party and with the support of an independent MP.
Borbidge lost power at the 1998 election. He served as Opposition Leader in the first term of the Beattie government. After the Nationals and Liberals suffered a massive defeat in 2001, Borbidge resigned as Nationals leader and as Member for Surfers Paradise.
At the 2001 by-election, both the Liberals and Nationals contested the seat. Borbidge had polled 49.8% at the general election, but the new National Party candidate barely managed 8%.
Liberal candidate John-Paul Langbroek polled 21%, but lost to independent councillor Lex Bell, who polled almost 36%.
In 2004, Bell lost to Langbroek, who ran without National Party competition.
Langbroek, along with all other Liberal MPs, joined the newly formed Liberal National Party in 2008. When the LNP lost the 2009 election, leader Lawrence Springborg stepped down and Langbroek was elected as LNP leader.
Langbroek led the party until March 2011, when he was replaced as party leader by Lord Mayor of Brisbane Campbell Newman, elected as party leader from outside Parliament.
Langbroek has been re-elected in Surfers Paradise six times.
Assessment
Surfers Paradise is a safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| John-Paul Langbroek | Liberal National | 16,470 | 57.7 | -5.5 |
| Brianna Bailey | Labor | 7,265 | 25.5 | +3.1 |
| Nelson Quinn | Greens | 2,324 | 8.1 | -1.0 |
| Leeanne Schultz | One Nation | 1,785 | 6.3 | +6.3 |
| Roger Mckay | United Australia | 684 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Informal | 1,031 | 3.5 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| John-Paul Langbroek | Liberal National | 18,890 | 66.2 | -3.6 |
| Brianna Bailey | Labor | 9,638 | 33.8 | +3.6 |
Booths in Surfers Paradise have been divided into four areas: central, north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59% in the south to 64.4% in the centre.
| Voter group | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 64.4 | 2,575 | 9.0 |
| South | 59.0 | 2,004 | 7.0 |
| North | 63.6 | 1,919 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 67.8 | 14,444 | 50.6 |
| Other votes | 66.3 | 7,586 | 26.6 |
Election results in Surfers Paradise at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party and Labor.
LNP hold.
Wikipedia says of this seat: “While the Gold Coast has historically tilted conservative, Surfers Paradise has historically been a particularly conservative seat even by Gold Coast standards. It is one of the few areas of the Gold Coast where Labor has never been competitive at the state level.”
What makes Surfers Paradise so Lib-leaning? It is high density and has a large population in their 20’s, the sort of demographics the Libs seem to be struggling with since Turnbull was dumped in 2018.
My guess is that the Gold Coast attracts people with certain traits that correlate with an inclination to vote for the LNP. Similar to how Nillumbik, the Dandenong Ranges, and the Blue Mountains vote more to the left than their demographic profiles would suggest.
“While the Gold Coast has historically tilted conservative, Surfers Paradise has historically been a particularly conservative seat even by Gold Coast standards. It is one of the few areas of the Gold Coast where Labor has never been competitive at the state level.”
@Nether Portal
Rob Borbidge who was then National party leader and leader of the opposition actually almost lost this seat in the Beattie landslide of 2001. Borbidge in his concession speech, even mentioned he had lost his seat on the night but he held on. Borbidge wouldn’t resume parliament and left in a by-election which the Nationals lost to independent Lex Bell. Because Nationals got such a paltry result in the by-election. They gave then Liberal by-election candidate John-Paul Langbroek a free run at the general election in 2004 which he was able to win the seat.
The view of the Gold Coast the closer to the beach the more Liberal it is. The further away from the beach the more Labor it is. Surfer Paradise buried right close to the beach which is situated perfectly for wealthy self-funded retirees who traditionally vote conservative.
There has been a view going back as 2017 Langbroek should call time on his career and make way for fresh blood. Langbroek has refuted those calls. Those calls were repeated again by some in the media after the 2020 state election. Whatever the case LNP retains.
Hypothetical scenario time,
What if in an alternative universe JPL had led the LNP to 2012 instead of Newman? I believe before the party room coup in late 2010, the LNP was leading around what they are leading now, (56-44) This was also clearly the case because Rudd was ousted as PM and Gillard was unpopular in QLD at the time.
Perhaps if you avoid the floods, Newman decides not to contest. and JPL is the premier of QLD in 2012 with a majority (but not to the extent they had OTL) (maybe around 60 seats)
What sort of premier would have JPL have been like? I assume he would have been much less unpopular than Newman meaning he probably would have got a 2nd term in 2015 (although Abbott was always going to make it difficult)
Perhaps there also would have been a different opposition leader since Labor would have more seats under this scenario. Andrew Fraser? Cameron Dick?
Thoughts?
Langbroek would have been just as unsuccessful as premier as Newman was and for similar reasons, though I suspect the vibe would have been more bumbling incompetence than Newman’s was. He’s quite a strange personality, and I don’t see any reason to think that the LNP would have done much different on the key policies that alienated the public – promising to continue privatisation, the widespread public service layoffs, etc.
One of the safest seats in the state, not just for the LNP. Former LNP Leader JPL will return to the Ministry later this year.
Apparently Labor not staffing the prepoll booth
I’ve calculated the federal results for this seat, the first time I’ve done it for a Gold Coast seat (I’ve already done it for most of the inner-city Brisbane seats and I’ve done it for Leichhardt too).
The LNP TPP here was 65.9% at the 2022 federal election, including the Broadbeach and Surfers Paradise PPVCs but excluding postals as it is impossible to tell where they’re from. Therefore the federal result here is basically the same as the state result, with the state result being slightly better for the LNP (66.2% TPP vs 65.9% TPP).
It looks like a lot of people with verified Instagram accounts are endorsing JPL for re-election.
JPL is another great MP from the Coast, he deserves re-election and locals are happy with him. Don’t be surprised if other famous Gold Coasters endorse the LNP this time around.
Final prediction:
LNP: 57
Labor: 26
Greens: 4
KAP: 4
IND: 2