ALP 11.9%
Incumbent MP
Jimmy Sullivan, since 2020.
Geography
Brisbane. Stafford covers the northern Brisbane suburbs of Stafford, Stafford Heights, Grange, Newmarket, Wilston, Kedron, Chermside and parts of Alderley, Lutwyche, and Wavell Heights.
History
The seat of Stafford was first created in 1972. It was abolished in 1992 before being restored in 2001. The seat was a marginal seat throughout the 1970s and 1980s. It was held by Labor from 2001 to 2012, and again since the 2014 by-election.
The seat was first won in 1972 by William Harvey. He was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Terry Gygar in the 1974 landslide election.
Gygar held the seat at the 1977 and 1980 elections before losing in 1983 to the ALP’s Denis Murphy. Murphy was diagnosed with cancer and died in 1984 without ever speaking in Parliament.
Gygar regained his seat at the 1984 by-election, and held it until 1989.
Rod Welford won the seat for the Labor Party in 1989. When Stafford was abolished in 1992 he moved to the neighbouring seat of Everton. He held Everton until his retirement in 2009. He also served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 1998 to 2009.
The ALP’s Terry Sullivan won the newly restored seat of Stafford in 2001. Sullivan had first been elected at the 1991 Nundah by-election. Nundah was abolished in 1992, and Sullivan moved to the new seat of Chermside. This seat was also abolished in 2001, and Sullivan moved to Stafford. He retired in 2006.
Stirling Hinchliffe, also of the ALP, won the seat in 2006, and retained it in 2009.
In 2012, Hinchliffe lost his seat to LNP candidate Chris Davis. Davis was appointed as Assistant Minister for Health in the new LNP government. In May 2014 he was sacked as a minister due to numerous public disagreements with his colleagues. Later that month, he resigned from the Parliament in protest at the direction of the Newman LNP government.
The July 2014 by-election was easily won by Labor candidate Anthony Lynham, benefiting from a 19% swing back to Labor. Lynham was re-elected in 2015 and 2017.
Lynham retired in 2020, and was succeeded by Labor candidate Jimmy Sullivan.
Assessment
Stafford is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jimmy Sullivan | Labor | 15,472 | 45.6 | -2.5 |
| Ed Sangjitphun | Liberal National | 10,837 | 31.9 | -1.7 |
| Stephen Bates | Greens | 5,578 | 16.4 | -1.9 |
| Kerrie Dwyer | One Nation | 1,006 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Jeff Hodges | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 644 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Anthony Conciatore | Independent | 417 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 827 | 2.4 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jimmy Sullivan | Labor | 21,012 | 61.9 | -0.2 |
| Ed Sangjitphun | Liberal National | 12,942 | 38.1 | +0.2 |
Booths in Stafford have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59% in the south to 66.2% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 16.2% in the north to 21.9% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 18.1 | 64.1 | 4,503 | 13.3 |
| North | 16.2 | 66.2 | 3,462 | 10.2 |
| South | 21.9 | 59.0 | 2,894 | 8.5 |
| Pre-poll | 15.0 | 61.7 | 12,259 | 36.1 |
| Other votes | 16.0 | 60.5 | 10,836 | 31.9 |
Election results in Stafford at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
Its been reported Brisbane city councillor Fiona Hammond is going contest the LNP preselection of Stafford. I can’t see her being successful if she wins the nomination. On roughly a 11% margin I could see Labor holding on to Stafford in opposition.
It wasn’t just reported, she posted herself on Facebook, so… straight from the horse’s mouth.
Its a bold & risky move but if the swing is on, the swing is on.
If Labor actually manage to lose stafford to the lnp then they’re looking at an anna bligh style wipeout anyway.
Fun fact: according to Wikipedia, the seat of Stafford is in three federal seats, all held by different parties: Brisbane (Greens), Lilley (Labor) and Petrie (LNP).
Can anyone else think of any suburbs that are in three federal or state seats all held by different parties?
@ NP
Good point, one that i can think of in Melbourne is Higgins. At a state level there is a Greens, Safest Liberal and two Labor seats (one safe and one mariginal). Another one is Hume which at a state level is held by Teal, Liberal and Labor (Camden)
i don’t think stafford overlaps with petrie on current boundaries
Page has Ballina- Green, Lismore-Labor, Clarence- National.
Agree Furtive, Petrie’s southern boundary ends at Robinson Rd west, which is just outside Stafford’s northern boundary.
On another note, the somewhat awkward split of Chermside from its surrounding suburbs may be rectified at the next redistribution given that seats both to the north (Murrumba and those around Caboolture) and to the south (Clayfield and McConnell) are all over quota and need to shed electors.
Flip side to Marchant page, basically confirmed as Fiona has now officially resigned from her council seat. Article link on Marchant page. Agreed with Furtive that if Stafford is going… it’s going to be a short [election] night.
The Australian is reporting that Sullivan will be challenged for preselection by Susan Lynch, a former staffer for Sullivan’s predecessor, Anthony Lynham. Sullivan is also the only incumbent Labor MP who is facing a challenge, apparently. The loss of an incumbent might open the door for Hammond at the election.
what’s her motivation for that?
The Australian is reporting that Sullivan easily won the nomination against Lynch by 83-17, however, one of those voting for Lynch was ALP state president John Battams.
Why did Jimmy Sullivan face a challenge? Is he disliked by the ALP establishment or is someone just hungry for a safe seat? 83-17 is a landslide win. The local branches do want him.
@Volante not sure of the inner workings but I was working for a non-Labor politician in the Area in 2020. Susan Lynch was a Staffer for the-then Member for Stafford Anthony Lynham, and in the lead up to his retirement I distinctly remember seeing a brochure of his which had a photo of him and Susan on the back with a caption along the lines of “Susan Ley and my Team at the Electorate Office are here to help” – thought it was odd to have a photo and name of a Staffer on a non-campaign period brochure going out to the electorate. My inference was that he supported her bid for preselection in 2020 (just speculation – I think she did run for preselection but I actually don’t know the facts of what went on). She was also the ALP Candidate for the overlapping Marchant Ward in the 2020 Brisbane City Council Election several months earlier. Surprising to see that she is launching a preselection challenge against a first-time incumbent, especially one whose father was a former State Labor MP for the same area.
It’s worth noting that Fiona Hammond held Marchant Ward from 2008 to 2023 – fifteen years during which the overlapping State and Federal Seats were entirely ALP (except the 2-year Newman Blip where LNP MP Chris Davis held the seat from 2012 – 2014, which was followed by a 17.1% swing back to Labor in the 2014 Stafford By-Election). Seems reasonable to assume she has a not-insignificant personal vote, and she seems to be a pretty active candidate. However, putting enough of dent in the ALP’s 11.9% hold on the Seat to win it is going to be an uphill battle for sure. Had she have run as a teal with her local profile (not that there seems to be much appetite on the part of the Teals to foray into Queensland) I wonder if she would have a better shot.
I just can’t see Stafford flipping to the LNP, even with a well-known and relatively popular former councillor. As long as Labor’s vote remains in the mid to high 30s, they’ll win off the back of a strong Green primary vote. The LNP would need 47% here to be within a shot and I just can’t see that happening.
Coincidentally Fiona Hammond left the city council after calling independent Cr Nicole Johnston “a bitch”
@PRP I think they might get this one. This is a 50/50 seat for me.
@Caleb that’s not a reason for someone to resign from an elected office. It’s really not that bad so I doubt voters will get mad at someone for calling someone a bitch, especially if a woman calls another woman a bitch (if it were a man it would be more offensive but still not terrible).
This is has a 20% chance of flipping to the LNP for me. Yes, there is a former councillor running, although her ward only covered the northern parts of this electorate. The central parts around Stafford are very ALP friendly, and the southern parts are somewhat Green friendly. This will be like Miller, Ferny Grove or Greenslopes, where strong Green preferences will save the ALP here.
@AA Ferny Grove is definitely an LNP gain for me.
Mate, I live near the Ferny Grove electorate. I can guarantee that Nelson will not win it. Mark Furner is a popular local member with an incumbency advantage, plus the Greens preferences from Wilston, Alderley, Gaythorne and Mitchelton will flow strongly to Labor.
@AA based on the margin (which is inflated by the 6% swing last time) I would say it is winnable but I do agree that Furner is popular so it will be close. I definitely think the LNP will have a higher primary in all three seats you mentioned but Greens preferences would save Labor in Miller and maybe Greenslopes.
I think Labor will lose votes to the LNP and Greens here. I’d give a 20% chance of this seat flipping to the LNP. The other factor is that the LNP candidate is not well known in the community, and as far as I can tell, has come straight out of the Young Libs. I think with a stronger candidate, the LNP could’ve flipped this.
Another seat Greens are not targeting seriously despite about 40% overlap with one of their federal seats. QLD Greens have clearly chosen Moreton over Lilley (or Bonner) for their federal expansion plans.
Labor actually got swings towards them 2PP in Marchant Ward despite an otherwise dismal council election. Not seeing much reason Labor won’t hang on here.
The federal TPP/TCP for Labor/Greens in 2022 was 56.6% against the LNP. The northern half is in Lilley which is Labor vs LNP while the southern half is in Brisbane which is Greens vs LNP.
The federal figure includes both the Brisbane and Lilley Stafford PPVCs by the way but not postals.
Excluding prepolls and postals, the council results here show an LNP TPP/TCP of 53.1% against Labor and the Greens. Enoggera Ward is LNP vs Greens while Marchant and Northgate Wards are LNP vs Labor.
The seat was first won in 1972 by William Harvey He was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Terry Gygar in the 1974 landslide election.
William Harvey is better known as Roy Harvey, later Lord Mayor of Brisbane 1982-’85.
There’s a BCC office tower in Ann St named for him.
I’m predicting a by-election next year, with everything that’s happened with current member. He’s been suspended by Steven Miles, hasn’t made any public appearances since the election, and wasn’t at parliament to be sworn in. I can’t see Labor hanging on to him.
Labor will probably dump him after parliament gets underway and things are settled.
Hoping it turns out well for Jimmy Sullivan, some say the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2002/04/03/terry-sullivan-blazes-the-brawling-trail/
@A A – I agree.
ICYMI: Police responded to an incident at Jimmy Sullivan’s Kedron home a few weeks ago. Multiple sources, including people close to him, have raised concerns about his welfare and relationship with alcohol.
@AA @James yep I think this’ll be the first by-election. It’ll be in 2025 though.
The margin is 5.3% as of the 2024 state election. A honeymoon swing is possible especially if Crisafulli is popular, but the controversy could be a wildcard. It’s not a scandal so I think Labor should be fine.
Prediction: Labor hold, negligible swing.
I think Labor will probably hold this in a by-election, because keeping Steven Miles as opposition leader will play well in the inner-city. Fiona Hammond will probably run again, given she gave up her safe council ward to run against Sullivan. Crisafulli will probably have a honeymoon period, but I think his support is concentrated in the regions/outer suburbs and not in the city – decisions like scrapping the truth telling inquiry will be unpopular here. There is a chance that this seat will flip blue, but I don’t think it’s likely.