South Brisbane – Queensland 2024

@Ben Raue
I think the 2pp swing from last election is the other way around. It should be:
MacMahon, Greens, + 8.9%
Trad, Labor, – 8.9%

Thanks Leon, will get on that.

Given the results of the last federal election, I would imagine the Greens wouldn’t be too worried about retaining South Brisbane, or Maiwar. It should be simple enough, and maybe this will allow them to shift their resources to other inner Brisbane seats.

Agree Wilson, this seat may be like Balmain in NSW where the Greens are entrenched and thus can prioritise trying to win other seats.

Weren’t the Greens just in a huge fight for their lives in Balmain? They have the incumbency advantage again I suppose, but if I were them I wouldn’t be taking Balmain lightly.

That was when it was an open seat as then MP Jamie Parker retired. I think the general logic is that Green Party incumbents are generally quite secure, and their seats only become competitive as open seat contests.

*Might* be an issue if LNP preferences switch back to Labor, but all indications suggest the Greens vote will increase statewide, which, combined with the Federal result, should mean this seat should be a fairly safe Greens retain.

What are the chances the Libs reverse their preference decision?

Could be possible, especially given Jackie Trad isn’t running. If the LNP direct preferences to Labor then this could be a tight race

In an election where lnp should win they’d want to get rid of the greens

The LNP tends to get a lot of flack when the put the Greens ahead of Labor, especially when they lose big time e.g. QLD 2020, VIC 2022. LNP might go back to putting Labor ahead of the Greens.

Generally first-term Greens increase their primary vote because of incumbency. Add to that, I reckon votes for minor right-wing parties like One Nation will be negligible and ON tends to put Labor ahead of Greens.

Right-wing minor party preferences typically tend to favour the Greens a little over Labor actually. Unintuitive but fits with a ‘put the majors last’ attitude.

The LNP’s preference decision shouldn’t matter here (though it could really help the Greens in seats like Greenslopes and Miller) – the Greens should get an incumbency boost to their primary and Labor’s general struggles should put it out of reach for them.

A preference deal could help the libs in maiwar though

Liberal preferences made the difference here.

Exactly the. Goal was to get rid of trad. Now the libs should be able to work some sort of deal in exchange for labor preferences in maiwar

The LNP would probably run dead as they aren’t going to finish in the final two anyway.

@Babaluma, ON and UAP classify the Greens as a major party. Their voters more often than not, put Labor ahead of the Greens.

@John, I doubt that Maiwar would flip. An LNP surge would need to be coupled with good preference flows. It’s unlikely Labor would preference LNP ahead of the Greens. An LNP and Labor deal would definitely make a difference if it were to happen. Like in South Brisbane, votes for minor right wing parties like ON are negligible.

@Nimalan The general view is that, where LNP preferences are counted, preferences should be used to reduce the number of “safe” seats. It’s very much a Blender strategy, where Labor or Green candidates who want a long-term future in politics would never run in those seats because they would only get one term in office (as opposed to seats like Ipswich or Inala).

@John The Labor base would revolt if the ALP ever preferenced the LNP in Maiwar, no matter how good the long-term elimination of The Greens would be for them.

@Votante Preferences from the UAP put The Greens over the ALP in Griffith, giving them the seat. I’m not sure if people realise how fragile The Greens position is in Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith.

Labor came 3rd in Griffith and all UAP and PHON preferences did was give the LNP even more of a lead over Labor for 2nd place.

If you’re talking about Brisbane the point where Greens overtook Labor in the Brisbane preference count was when AJP was eliminated. They did better than Labor off UAP and PHON preferences but the main beneficiary was the LNP

@John Sorry, I put Griffith instead of Brisbane.

For Griffith the Greens were the major beneficiary of the drop in the LNP vote, but I don’t think it went directly there, instead having LNP votes transfer to the ALP and the ALP losing votes to The Greens. The ALP only made small gains out of the LNP drop and also went backwards in UAPP and PHON preferences. However The Green primary vote was only 34.59%, with an additional 25.87% coming as preferences. Theoretically for a three-cornered contest (not counting the UAP) 33.34% is as low as you want to go. So while the TCP shows 60.46%, the actual margin between second and third is only 4.2%.

For Brisbane the AJP distribution put The Greens ahead of the ALP but there was still enough of the non-LNP vote left to make the the UAP preferences decisive. The reason for that was the number of UAPP votes that paused at PHON before being distributed to The Greens – that’s why I count the UAPP to PHON to Green as effectively UAPP to Green.

And to round it off, Ryan was a lot closer to being a traditional race but it’s switched from LNP/ALP to LNP/GRN. The swing against the LNP was a shade over 10 percent and almost matched the swing to The Greens, with the ALP finishing third on a declining vote.

With a redistribution due after the next election I think that The Greens are at risk in at least two of the three seats. Which two seats they are depends on where the boundaries are drawn.

@Mark Yore definitely a risk in Ryan but we’ll see how 2024 and 2025 play out first.

Brisbane traditional swinging seat
Ryan most times a liberal seat can have a 10% margin in bad times for Labor
Griffith.. alp inclined marginal seat
Future results will depend on boundaries in the future but also liberal party preferences esp in Griffith

In South Brisbane 2020, UAP polled last and Labor got more of their preferences than the Greens did. Its preferences mainly went to ON followed by LNP. In Maiwar however, the Greens got more UAP preferences than Labor did.

To be fair, (Clive Palmer’s) UAP hasn’t taken any state election seriously since 2015 when it debuted at the state level.

Predictions:

Greens: 42.4% (+4.5%)
LNP: 30.5% (+7.6%)
Labor: 22.3% (–12.1%)

TCP:
Greens: 57.1% (+1.7%)
LNP: 42.9% (+42.9%)

The swing against Labor here is going to the Greens and the LNP. Unlike Maiwar however, the Greens have a decent swing to them (in Maiwar I’ve predicted only a small swing to the Greens on primaries). This is why the Greens have an increased margin here but a slightly decreased margin in Maiwar. The drop in the Labor vote has allowed the LNP to finish second.

I don’t agree that South Brisbane will end up a GRN v LNP contest. I think the LNP finishes third, behind Greens and then Labor.

I do think the LNP will reverse their decision to preference the Greens above Labor this time, especially in South Brisbane. This won’t change the outcome – Greens will still comfortably win, but a swing against them.

IMO, this seat is basically gonna play out like this
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/tgab?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

The boundaries are very similar and Labor being in government, are likely to do worse, not better.

South Brisbane is going to be Green regardless of what happens. Any swing here will be to the Greens, not the LNP as it’s the definition of a typical Green seat (high LGBTIQ+ population, renters, inner-city). It’s also the strongest area for the Greens in Griffith compared to the southern end (Greenslopes, Cooparoo, Woollongabba) and the east (Bulimba, Hawthorne, Norman Park) which is still LNP.

The exact policies that will attract the swings to the LNP in the suburbs and regions will have the opposite effect here as it’s politically polar opposite and therefore should help the Greens here and in Maiwar.

@Joeldipops I’m starting to think the LNP might finish second too.

@Tommo9 my gay and lesbian friends tell me they hate the stereotype that LGBT people only vote Labor or Greens. This isn’t America, no study shows that LGBT people vote more Greens than Liberal.

It’ll be interesting to see the LGBT questions on the census. Perhaps we’ll know what the gayest suburb is after all.

*Sorry should’ve clarified not Woollongabba in the southern end but right in the heart of this seat.

@Nether Portal I didn’t imply that LGBT people only vote Labor and Greens, but it’s undeniable that some of the areas with the highest LGBT populations in the country are in Labor/Greens seats (Sydney/Grayndler/Melbourne on a federal level, Newtown, Balmain on a state level). Wentworth is an exception but even that seat is now an Independent seat, as is Sydney on a state level.

West End in Brisbane (which is in South Brisbane and Griffith) is kind of like Oxford Street in Sydney and Northbridge in Perth with its high LGBT cohort, and Griffith itself had a 76% Yes vote to SSM. Whilst it’s not always the case that LGBT people vote Greens or Labor, it’s a majority and this electorate I’d hazard a guess, is no exception.

I think Brunswick, Fitzroy (Mel) or Newtown (Syd) would have the highest LGBT percentages.

@Tommo9 I get that but I still think it’s very much worth noting that Australian LGBT people are much happier to vote Liberal or National than American LGBT people are to vote for most modern-day Republicans (though there are some who have even fallen into Trump’s MAGA cult; along with various American and right-wing/far-right flags there were also Canadian, Australian and LGBT flags (amongst several other flags) present at the January 6 Capitol attack.

LGBT people tend to like candidates who are pro-gay marriage and more socially progressive in those areas. Therefore, a moderate Liberal would be able to garner lots of the LGBT vote.

Class interests exist among LGBT+ people just as they do among straight cisgender people. I’m sure many wealthy LGBT+ people vote Teal or moderate Liberal, as those candidates will look after their material interests without pandering to social conservatives, though one could argue the moderate Liberals will end up backing a social conservative for Prime Minister anyway. Equally, I’m sure the vast majority of poor LGBT+ people vote for Labor or the Greens. However, many of them won’t be impressed by Albanese’s flip-flopping on the census questions.

As society changes and discrimination against LGBT+ people starts to fade into the ether with time, I could see the perception of the community overall change from being solid Labor/Greens voters to solid Liberal/Teal voters. The rate of LGBT+ people becoming parents is lower, which leads to greater household wealth. And it’s a lot easier for people to be for the social status quo if it’s no longer discriminating against them.

@Wilson agree but I would point out that more and more LGBT people are starting to have kids (via adoption, surrogacy or IVF). In my eyes (Liberal voter here) it seems despicable for one to not allow someone to have a kid.

Nether Portal, I would say that surrogacy and IVF have higher financial barriers than natural procreation. Which is not to say people can’t engage in those and be poor afterwards, but it’s perhaps more considered and planned out. As for adoption, while I’m not personally familiar with the process, I’ve been told that the criteria set in Australia for it is very high, perhaps to ensure more children don’t grow up in poverty. So maybe the risk of deteriorating living standards for LGBT+ parents is lower overall than for the remainder of the population.

@ Nether Portal
I do agree for the most part Australia is not America and typically most Australians are more interested in bread and butter issues than social issues. However, as i have mentioned before there are some on the right flank who do want to prioritize social issues such as LGBT issues, abortion over economic ones For example, you see a lot of commentary on rainbow lanyards, Drag story times, pronouns by right wing commentators who often say that Libs should focus on winning religious conservative Labor voters rather than focusing on affluent moderate voters.

It’s also the strongest area for the Greens in Griffith compared to the southern end (Greenslopes, Cooparoo, Woollongabba) and the east (Bulimba, Hawthorne, Norman Park) which is still LNP.

I’d question Bulimba/Hawthrone/Norman Park being LNP despite it being a wealthy riverside area.

Labor held Morningside ward, which includes Hawthrone/Bulimba fairly easily.
The state seat of Bulimba is Labor
in 2022 Fed the Greens won the 2CP in most booths there, although the primaries were pretty close between the 3

https://pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/HR.htm?s=Griffith

The most important area the economic issues.. how income and to a lesser extent wealth are distributed

The “elephant in the room” that no-one here is talking about is the promise that Amy McMahon made in 2020 that led literally several thousand normally loyalist, probably mainly ALP yet also plenty of LNP, voters in South Brisbane to give a Greens candidate their first preference for their first time ever. That she failed to keep. If she had at least tabled the cannabis legalisation private members’ bill, and it had been voted down (as anticipated), she would have at least kept her promise to them. Many of those voters are likely to return to their regular voting tendencies.

likely greens retain on labor preferences as it wil probably be GRN v LIB. a future election the libs could get labor over the line

@ John
Libs probably can only got Labor over the line in a good election for Labor and it is an open seat.

I know there was a murmur this seat could be interesting in Courier Mail with the LNP directing preferences to Labor. I still think the Greens will hold. There may be some voters in this seat who don’t want the Gabba reconstruction will be nervous if David Crisafulli become premier. If Crisafulli says no new stadiums, and doesn’t go ahead with the QSAC redevelopment then you do the math.

This is essentially an exact replica of The Gabba Ward. Here were the BCC results there:

Primaries:
* Trina Massey (Greens): 45.1% (–0.5%)
* Laura Wong (LNP): 31.1% (+1.7%)
* Rebecca McIntosh (Labor): 23.8% (–1.2%)

TCP:
* Trina Massey (Greens): 60.8% (–1.5%)
* Laura Wong (LNP): 39.2% (+1.5%)

The federal TCP for the Greens here against the LNP in 2022 was 67.0%. This is probably the most left-wing part of Brisbane and the northernmost area I would describe as far-left and woke.

@ Nether Portal et al
I have made some comments in the Yarra council thread you maybe interested in. The area is some what demographically like this area.

South Brisbane has always been Bolshie, there were wharves in Stanley St from the Victoria Bridge to the Ship Inn Hotel until 1966.
As most of the old dump houses anf factories between Montague Rd and the river are being replaced by residential towers, the Greens vote will fall away.
Thise people aren’t interested in the Climate Crisis, Green Spaces and Aboriginal Rights as much as real wages, interest rates and the COL.
The ALP appears to have given up, LNP has a better story to tell, if Amy MacMahon hangs on, it will be her last Term.

No doubt this is going to be a Greens hold. Honestly, I just think the question is whether Labor or the LNP come 2nd.

One Nation… Interestingly chose to buy an ad spot here a month ago targeting the Greens, wonder if they’ll get more than 2%!

The definition of woke is way off topic and I’m deleting a bunch of comments.

Amy MacMahon is 1 of the laziest MPs in Parliament. If she gets back in it’s not because of political performance that’s for sure

@netherportal

Interestingly, Laura Wong has been parachuted to run in Bulimba because the LNP couldn’t find a local candidate to run against a very popular local member.

Hasn’t set a very good image at early voting when grilled on what she stands for.