Murrumba – Queensland 2024

Miles does NOT come across as charismatic and will lose the state election should he become leader which is almost certain.

Well he’s confirmed leader now, I think I dodged a bullet by moving down to Victoria earlier this year. As a member of the Left, be may stop further swings to the Greens. But being too close to the unions won’t help stop bleeding votes to the LNP.

It’s funny because “Murrumba” used to be my seat when it contained North Lakes before the 2017 redistribution. This was also Frank Nicklins seat, but I believe it was Elimbah, Lanesborough, Woodford at that time.

@daniel but you wont here anyone complain how two men ousted a woman from the top job and stopped another woman from running for it. if this was the lnp the feminisits would be rioting for weeks

I doubt the public care which faction the leader of a party is from, if the policies remain the same. Also, I’m unsure if either the left or right factions of the Labor Party are worth the name any more. After all, the right faction’s Bill Shorten took a more reformist policy platform to an election, whereas the left faction’s Anthony Albanese had a less reformist agenda.

All of which is to say, there’s only one way Miles can stem the bleeding from Labor – appear competent. Ideology won’t do it.

@wilson Albanese just wrapped up the same policies in a different wrapping instead of saying it would cost money they said you’d save money. So youd vote for them.

John, no, that’s patently not true. Albanese dropped the changes to negative gearing and franking credit imputations that Shorten took to the previous election.

@only because they were electoral poison. They really still want to do it. This isn’t a govt that won in a landslide they barely got a majority and got it because the coalition was aging and the problems were starting to build up.same with the NSW govt. Minna didn’t even get a majority. Don’t be surprised if the coalition return to power next elections

John, so you admit that it wasn’t true. Glad we got there in the end.

Just because they aren’t implementing it doesn’t mean it isn’t part of their secret policy agenda that they want. Labor learners the lesson from bill shortens and the republic referendum defeats. That is give too much detail and people won’t vote for it. However if you tell them your not going to do it they will and then you can do it later

Miles being from the left won’t help with Greens voters. Miles has been much more hostile to the Greens than Palaszczuk was and his “attack dog” image won’t help with small-l/teal voters in Maiwar, Moggill and Clayfield.

I don’t think Labor can win the election now. Palaszczuk managed to come across as warm and compassionate without coming across as weak. This is incredibly difficult, especially for female politicians in our media environment. If they wanted to pivot to a more “blokey” Image then Dick was the better bet especially given that he’s a North Queensland based MP. If they wanted to make further inroads to the Gold and Sunshine coasts they should have gone with Fentiman.

Miles seems oddly… “whiny”? Steve vs Dave is already giving me vibes of Chris vs Chris from NZ, and we all know how that went for Labor.

Labor needs to start sandbagging hard. They can hang on but they will need Green preferences and active Green campaigns in SEQ, and they should only attack Greens over things the Greens are proud of (e.g. opposing coal).

Just noticed I changed my opinion mid post. It’s going to be an uphill battle for Labor and I’m not betting on their success but if Bligh could hang on in 2009 then I can’t rule out Labor hanging on and there are strategies they can follow.

John
Milton Dick is not a North Queensland MP – he is member for Woodridge in Outer Brisbane.

My mistake, I confused Cameron Dick and Curtis Pitt.

To 1st John, the same would also be true for the Coalition. John Hewson in his 1993 ‘Fightback’ campaign outlined a long list of items including GST which were controversial at the time, and he lost what should have been a winnable election.

John Howard learnt that lesson and in his 1996 campaign left out a lot of Hewson’s previous pledges, which enabled the Coalition to win easily. That didn’t stop him from introducing measures like GST years later, which he claimed were ‘necessary’.

Likewise, Tony Abbott also pledged to keep many things the same in his 2013 campaign and later copped a lot of criticism for proposed changes in the 2014 budget which he eventually scrapped.

Steven Miles won’t save much furniture nor minimise electoral losses like Rudd in 2013 federally. There’s the growing ‘it’s time’ factor and the piling baggage that’s weighing down the Labor brand. Miles was also close to Palaszczuk so he’s hardly a fresh face. At best, Labor can hold onto most seats but lose the statewide 2PP.

Being from the left faction make Labor fend off the Greens. Honing in on bread-and-butter issues like infrastructure and cost-of-living relief will. It’s how Dan Andrews minimised losses to both the Greens and the Liberals in 2022. Albanese is from the left faction but federal Labor lost Grififth and lost ground to the Greens in Richmond and Macnamara.

Thoughts on Steven Miles losing his on seat? I bet he’s probably shitting himself over this. His margin is 11.33% which is possible to overcome given that the expectation is an LNP landslide.

Cameron Dick would likely become the next Labor leader as I expect him to hold on in Woodridge.

I think it’s highly possible because Steven Miles doesn’t give a fuck about his job anymore. He even admitted he expected to get bad results in the by-elections and even said it’s almost impossible for him to win the state election yet he hasn’t changed shit. Apologies for the language but I can’t wait until I can vote him out in October.

He definitely could lose Murrumba at the general election, but I really don’t expect him to stick around long either way.

Based on that latest poll, Murrumba would seem to be at the top end where Labor MPs will be in trouble. All will be clear much closer to the day but either Labor may need to divert resources to save Steven Miles or Murrumba voters will just turn on him as they have a special opportunity.

Depending on which faction has a majority, either Cameron Dick or Shannon Fentiman would be Labor leader after the election. Both hold very safe Labor seats. Leadership just depends on whether the Left or Forum has a factional domination.

I’m sensing Cameron Dick or Shannon Fentiman will be the next leader. They probably stayed away from the Premier’s job as it is a poisoned chalice.

I don’t think the LNP will be targeting Labor seats on 10%+ margins.

You have to ask, what was the point of Miles running for the party leadership if he was ready to throw in the towel so soon? It’s a lot of effort to go to for a pretty underwhelming outcome. I don’t think Dick or Fentiman would have given up without a fight, they’d have both battled hard to change the government’s reputation, even if it didn’t end up changing the overall election result.

Votante, neither Dick nor Fentiman actively didn’t want the top job at the end of 2023. Dick realised his faction didn’t have the numbers in the party room, so he made a deal with Miles to be deputy leader. Fentiman then realised she didn’t have the numbers to defeat Miles and Dick combined so she conceded. They both wanted the leadership then and will still want it after the election.

@Votante The currently expected uniform swing is 9.2%. They absolutely will be targeting Labor seats on 10%+ margins, even if they don’t win them all they’ll still target them.

On 11.3% this will be one of the closest races in the state and could be a repeat of the 2015 election where the incumbent premier loses their seat.

At this point I suspect Labor retains it – by anywhere from 0-2% – but it would be at risk at a subsequent by-election, assuming Miles chooses to not stick around. It’s a volatile area, switching between the majors.

I think Fentiman is likely to be the next Opposition Leader, assuming the Left retains control of the Caucus.

It would be foolish for Miles to trigger a subsequent by election if he does end up retaining his seat by a squeaker (similar to Steven Marshall in Norwood for SA 2018). Any future by election held under an LNP government could see them flipping the seat anyway (again as what Labor did for Norwood when they won the seat upon Steven Marshall’s resignation).

It would be foolish for Miles to trigger a subsequent by election if he does end up retaining his seat by a squeaker (similar to Steven Marshall in Norwood for SA 2018). Any future by election held under an LNP government could see them flipping the seat anyway (again as what Labor did for Norwood when they won the seat upon Steven Marshall’s resignation).

Correction it would be SA 2022 as the election where Steven Marshall as premier barely survived a large swing against him in his own seat of Dunstan.

Correction it would be SA 2022 as the election where Steven Marshall as premier barely survived a large swing against him in his own seat of Dunstan.

I think the LNP could win this.

It will definitely be a seat to watch. I think that Steven Miles could lose it or they use so many resources trying to save him they throw a few other MPs overboard.

i think miles could be in trouble his 11% margin might not be enough to save him

I think this is a Labor retain with a very close margin. The LNP don’t have a candidate yet and don’t have much campaigning going in this seat. Even ONP has campaigned here more than the LNP (although there’s no ONP candidate either).

Ben,
Scott Donovan will be standing as the DLP endorsed candidate at the Queensland State Election for the State seat of Murrumba.

As an unregistered Political Party, the ECQ will show him, as being an Independent but he is a Democratic Labour Party member and candidate. It would be appreciated if you refer to him as DLP or Independent DLP.

Best Wishes
Andrew Jackson
Queensland Secretary Democratic Labour Party
PO Box 44,
Deception Bay,
4508

The LNP website says that Gary Fulton is running as the LNP candidate here.

I expect him to narrowly unseat Premier Steven Miles given Labor’s situation in Queensland.

Has Fulton got much of a presence around the electorate?

I think the LNP shouldn’t put too much into it, but the candidate needs to be getting around to reinforce the statewide messaging. It’s the crime, infrastructure and health issues that will resonate in this seat.

@NP i agree that this will probably be the states most marginal seat on way or the other

I live in adjoining seat of Bancroft and although I read a lot about Australian Labor Party being in the nose I am not hearing this in the electorate beyond those who think that both alternate governments are unfit for office. I have yet to see any campaigning by any party beyond what I am privy to and sitting members being a little bit more proactive with newsletters and in holding street offices. Ie I have seen no campaigning by any parties other than ALP and DLP. The Libs have announced candidates. I know One Nation has been contacting possible candidates because they have tried a bit of poaching.
Moreton Bay City Council has contacted c
Candidates and is restricting most signage till post 1 October.
Local Newspapers are few and far between. Sentinel Group from
Kilroy have some presence through small Supermarket piles and Redcliffe has a local paper with strong links to Dolphin football club but no newspapers being tossed into anyone’s yards anymore.
Combination of Council Local laws and No local newspapers means campaigning is less visible than previous elections.

Why is Rothwell a liberal voting area? I live in the area and nothing about the suburb strikes me as liberal leaning, especially compared to suburbs like north lakes and castle hill.

@Louis not 100% sure but One Nation and another right-wing candidate must’ve done well there if the LNP won despite being only just ahead of Labor on primaries and the Greens getting nearly 10% on primaries.

@ Louis
Good to see you back :). Does Rothwell have an older population like Beachmere etc? North Lakes/Mango Hill have a younger population and newer housing.

I just looked it up, Rothwell is a middle-class suburb. Perhaps that explains it.

Rothwell has more established housing, compared to North Lakes and Mango Hill which are newer estates with younger families. Rothwell also has a number of retirement villages. This makes the demographics a lot older than surrounding suburbs. Also, it’s a costal location with a lot of retirees. Demographically, Rothwell fits close to neighbouring Scarborough.

It also reminds me of parts of the Redlands, or (to a lesser extent) Bribie Island.

Even if miles manages to hold on it would likely become notionally liberal after redistribution as it will be forces to take the excess from Redcliffe and would then be about 25% over qouta and the best place w
To shed would be in the west where his vote is strongest

Giggles isn’t winning this John, Gary Fulton is getting a 15% swing to him

Yea just saying

@Trump 24 and yet not one analysis, speculation, whatever you wanna call it, commentary has suggested he will, I think you are just making stuff up. Is Labor going to get flogged in the election? Hell, yes they are but it’s going to be worse north of Brisbane then in Brisbane (it will still be bad there too.) If Miles was any chance of losing this, it would be all over the news, think Newman Ashgrove.

Premier is done, I think a 14% swing which is less than some seats but it will be enough to see him lose his seat

I have just got me from the ECQ draw for ballot positions in Murrumba. Legalise Canabis number 1 with ALP Miles number 2. Therefore Miles will get the Dopey, the doped up plus the donkey votes. I think he is home and hosed.
ECQ had difficulty hiring Pre poll centres. We got a bit gentle warning about behaviour from Retuning Officer re Anzac Av Prepoll.
Miles failed to turn up but sent an ALP rep.

I tried to get hold of a copy of Liberal Plan for government off Liberal candidate but even though they seem to be flashing paper copies at any TV camera that goes within 10 metres of them they have none to distribute. Look on web site was advice.

ECQ had a big map of Murrumba on wall but no one knows where to get them from. Of course Newman closed both the Government Printer and SunMap so once again look on web site.

The last Queensland election returns were never printed. AEC is as bad the AEC Pocket book was collated but never printed look on web.
A bit like the BOM and the Annual Climate Report they print in glossy 4 colour Print for themselves but 90% of those reading the report do so in rendered black and white.

ive put down $50 @$4.75 for miles to lose his seat