ALP 11.3%
Incumbent MP
Steven Miles, since 2017. Previously member for Mount Coot-tha 2015-2017.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Murrumba covers southern parts of Moreton Bay local government area. It covers the suburbs of Rothwell, Mango Hill, Kallangur, Murrumba Downs, Castle Hill, Dakabin and Griffin, and parts of Rothwell and Narangba, all suburbs on the northern fringe of Brisbane.
History
The seat of Murrumba has existed continuously since 1912. It was held by the Country/National Party from 1918 to 1977, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1977.
The seat was held by Frank Nicklin from 1932 to 1950, when he moved to the new seat of Landsborough. He served as Premier of Queensland from 1957 to 1968.
First David Nicholson and then Des Frawley were elected as Country Party MPs in Murrumba. In 1977 Frawley lost to the ALP’s Joe Kruger. Kruger held the seat until his retirement in 1986.
Dean Wells won Murrumba in 1986. He had previously served as federal Member for Petrie for 18 months from 1983 to 1984. Wells served as a minister in two successive Labor state governments: from 1989 to 1995 and from 1998 to 2004. Wells held Murrumba for nine terms from 1986 until 2012.
In 2012, Wells was defeated by LNP candidate Reg Gulley, who won with a 16.7% swing. Gulley lost his seat in 2015 by Labor’s Chris Whiting.
The redistribution prior to the 2017 election created a new seat of Bancroft out of northern parts of Murrumba. Whiting was elected as member for Bancroft. Murrumba was won by Steven Miles, whose seat of Mount Coot-tha had been abolished in the redistribution.
Miles had first won Mount Coot-tha in 2015 and had served as environment minister in the new government. He shifted to the health portfolio in 2017 and became deputy premier in May 2020. Miles won a second term in Murrumba in 2020.
- David Zaloudek (Legalise Cannabis)
- Steven Miles (Labor)
- Deklan Green (Greens)
- Duncan Geldenhuys (One Nation)
- Gary Fulton (Liberal National)
- Caleb Wells (Independent)
- Scott Donovan (Independent)
- David Todd (Family First)
- Sarah Kropman (Independent)
Assessment
Murrumba is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steven Miles | Labor | 17,433 | 50.5 | +4.9 |
| Yvonne Barlow | Liberal National | 10,016 | 29.0 | +3.3 |
| Jason Kennedy | Greens | 2,840 | 8.2 | -1.0 |
| Karen Haddock | One Nation | 2,571 | 7.5 | -12.0 |
| Leichelle Mcmahon | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 961 | 2.8 | +2.8 |
| Stewart Clark | Independent | 667 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Informal | 1,269 | 3.5 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steven Miles | Labor | 21,153 | 61.3 | +1.8 |
| Yvonne Barlow | Liberal National | 13,335 | 38.7 | -1.8 |
Booths in Murrumba have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.6% in the east to 65.4% in the west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 63.0 | 4,733 | 13.7 |
| West | 65.4 | 3,871 | 11.2 |
| East | 55.6 | 891 | 2.6 |
| Pre-poll | 60.6 | 13,106 | 38.0 |
| Other votes | 60.6 | 11,887 | 34.5 |
Election results in Murrumba at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal National Party.
39-35 with 26 undecided is a good result for the lnp considering where the forum was held. if you say the undeciede vote breaks evenly thats 52-48 result which is pretty good for the lnp in central brisbane
@ john
As Sir Humphrey used to say that is a courageous decision
@John Were all the undecided voters from McConnel?
@Real Talk no but they’d all be from Brisbane. I doubt anyone would’ve come from Central or North Queensland to watch it so that probably skews it left. Remember Queensland is so big that Brisbane is closer to Melbourne than Cairns.
I live here.
Not in Murrumba, but in Queensland.
I have this as a Labor hold. I don’t see a double-digit swing.
The forum was at suncorp so maiwar or Cooper as I’m not sure where ipexactly it was. Not sure where the voters were from
Chances of an upset here? Margin is only 11% and if big swing is expected this seat could worth the watch
@CG If Miles wasn’t premier, then probably. His increased profile should see him hold on.
ALP retain with about a 2-4% margin
If Miles as Premier retains with a 2% Margin that is an 8% swing to Liberals.
This will be a landslide victory to Libs.
My reading of Rothwell Prepoll is ALP won but not a massive victory. Kallangur Booth a bit more fifficult to read. However I have only visited Kallangur and have been on Rothwell for 20 Hours out of 100 Hours it has been open.
Miles has not shown his face, so he clearly is not worried and presumably the ALP would have communicated any concerns to him.
ALP retains comfortably with a very minimal swing against. miles is clearly not worried in his own seat
Narrow Labor hold is my final prediction, Bancroft still might fall.
Narrow Labor loss is my prediction
Even if he holds it I’d imagine he’d trigger a by election which libs could well win
Looks like all the predictions of Miles to be the next Eva Lawler or John Howard has all but fizzed out. Only a minimal swing against him in the seat and it’s still close to 10% which is safe territory, meanwhile the primary vote gap is huge. Perhaps his profile as premier saved him? If he was Deputy Premier he probably wouldn’t have been so lucky.
Also surprised that Labor kept all of their Caboolture-based seats bar Pumicestone, and were virtually unharmed in Logan and Ipswich (even regaining Ipswich West) where you’d think youth crime would hit them hard. Yes they all had moderate to big swings but to be able to safely sandbag them either speaks of Labor’s last-minute turnaround or that their local members pulled the hard yards and romped it home.