ALP 12.2%
Incumbent MP
Curtis Pitt, since 2009.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Mulgrave covers the Queensland coast between Deeral and the southern suburbs of Cairns, including Gordonvale, Edmonton, White Rock, Woree and Bayview Heights. Mulgrave covers the Aboriginal Shire of Yarrabah and parts of the Cairns local government area.
History
The seat of Mulgrave has existed continuously since 1950. For most of that period it was dominated by the Country/National Party. Since 1989 it has been dominated by the ALP, although the seat has changed hands on a number of occasions.
The seat had been held by Country or National Party MPs continuously for the length of the party’s term in government from 1957 to 1989.
In 1989 the seat was won by the ALP’s Warren Pitt. He was re-elected in 1992 and briefly became a minister in the Labor government in early 1995, before losing his seat to the National Party’s Naomi Wilson at the 1995 election.
Wilson briefly served as a minister in 1998 before losing Mulgrave to One Nation’s Charles Rappolt at the 1998 election. Rappolt’s time in the Parliament was brief. He faced attacks over domestic violence allegations, and he resigned in late 1998.
At the 1998 by-election Warren Pitt won back Mulgrave, giving Peter Beattie a majority in the Legislative Assembly.
Pitt was re-elected in 2001. In early 2004 he was reappointed to the ministry. He served in the ministry until his retirement in 2009.
At the 2009 election Mulgrave was won by Pitt’s son Curtis Pitt. The younger Pitt has been re-elected four times. Pitt served as treasurer from 2015 to 2017 and has served as Speaker since early 2018.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Curtis Pitt is not running for re-election.
- Nicholas Daniels (Legalise Cannabis)
- Steven Lesina (Katter’s Australian Party)
- David Raymond (Independent)
- Peter Everett (Greens)
- Richie Bates (Labor)
- Terry James (Liberal National)
- Michael McInnes (One Nation)
- Leslie Searle (Family First)
- Ian Floyd (Independent)
- Yodie Batzke (Independent)
Assessment
Mulgrave is a safe Labor seat on paper, although Pitt’s departure might make Labor’s campaign more difficult.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Curtis Pitt | Labor | 14,254 | 49.9 | +1.8 |
| Gerry Vallianos | Liberal National | 7,341 | 25.7 | +2.9 |
| Attila Feher-Holan | Katter’s Australian Party | 3,395 | 11.9 | +11.9 |
| Francis Bartorillo | One Nation | 1,825 | 6.4 | -16.0 |
| Sue Cory | Greens | 1,772 | 6.2 | -0.5 |
| Informal | 1,256 | 4.2 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Curtis Pitt | Labor | 17,793 | 62.2 | +1.3 |
| Gerry Vallianos | Liberal National | 10,794 | 37.8 | -1.3 |
Booths in Mulgrave have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 62.5% in the south to 67.5% in the north.
Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.1% in the north to 16.3% in the south.
| Voter group | KAP prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 11.1 | 67.5 | 3,670 | 12.8 |
| Central | 12.5 | 66.6 | 2,617 | 9.2 |
| South | 16.3 | 62.5 | 1,952 | 6.8 |
| Pre-poll | 12.2 | 61.1 | 15,132 | 52.9 |
| Other votes | 9.6 | 59.6 | 5,216 | 18.2 |
Election results in Mulgrave at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and Katter’s Australian Party.
ALP retain if Curtis Pitt stands again. Absolute toss-up if he isn’t.
How did Labor survive here in 2012? Yes, the conservative vote was split almost 50-50 between the LNP and KAP. Was that it? Or were there other factors?
Wil expect a swing from the ALP due to Dan andrews resignation
No Stew, this is Mulgrave in Queensland. The Victorian Mulgrave by-election has already occurred, and, as you said, there was a swing from the ALP.
@nicholas its a father son seat. warren pitt first contested in 1986 won in 1989 lost in 1995 again in 1998, retook the seat in the 1998 by election, passed it to his son curtis pitt in 2009. my guess is the personal vote held up.
@stew yep sure will i reckon around 10%. 😀
@Nicholas, yes in 2012 the vote was almost a three-way tie between ALP, LNP and KAP.
Queensland still had Optional Preferential Voting then, so the KAP and LNP basically took votes from each other and allowed Labor to win with like 34% of the vote and very minimal favourable preferences.
Ah, they had OPV! That makes more sense.
@nicholas Yea it’s the reason the nats and libs formed the lnp to stop that very problem
In 2012, there was OPV as Mark Mulclair mentioned. There was also momentum behind the newly-formed KAP as a non-Labor alternative to make gains in north and western QLD. Many KAP voters either didn’t send preferences or didn’t take them too seriously, perhaps because they thought KAP would win or as a rejection of the two-party duopoly.
I feel that typically second-generation MPs do quite well and have a strong personal vote given their surname but it might also be because they normally run in safe seats.
Father son must have been a factor in a personal vote in 2012 because excluding that election, this seat is actually a bellwether.
@bja I think the opv was a factor too. If it was for he would have lost from the combined KAP/LNP vote
–Candidate Update–
While researching information for Cook, I came across an independent for here.
IND (Yodie Batzke) who has set up a Facebook Page (Batzke2024Mulgrave – if you wish to search)
Yodie contested Cook (IND) at the 2020 State Election [3.86%], QLD Senate (UAP) at the 2019 Federal Election as no.3 on the ticket [Group 3.52%], Leichhardt (IND) at the 2010 Federal Election [2.13%]. Also backed the no campaign for the Voice Referendum.
Super close race and although I think Labor will win, I think it’ll be by 51% TPP. On 12%, the margin is quite inflated and if Curtis decides to retire at the last minute, this could easily fall to the LNP.
The LNP has not yet selected a candidate and much like Mackay, i think it’s a missed opportunity for them to capitalise on the expected gains in regional Queensland.
@PRP 50/50 given they are facing a 9% swing that isnt always uniform. miles is deeply unpopular outside of brisbane and i think this will go. the only seat north of brisbane they have any hope of holding is Gladstone. Maybe cook given the strong alp vote but i think thats gone too as i think the combined KAP/ONP/LNP will outweigh labor on the 2pp
Yes, very possible. Labor’s vote will be in freefall here – but just can’t work out why the LNP hasn’t got someone here yet?
One thing I note is that in 2012, the swing against Labor on 2pp was the lowest in Cook, then Mulgrave (for Labor-held seats).
(This may have been because of a combo of Katter and OPV though)
Maybe Labor still can retain one or both though I still expect them to fall.
@leon yes OPV and the fact KAP were in the mix did hurt the lnp with FPV the lnp should easily pick these up
I wonder how the LNP still don’t have a candidate for this seat? I’m starting to think this will be a very close Labor retain.
The Courier Mail says that Curtis Pitt will announce today that he won’t contest the election and will retire from parliament.
Makes this seat much more likely to go to the LNP now.
LNP retain with the loss of Curtis Pitt, KAP might do well too.
Agree NP, based on current polling I think Mulgrave and Rockhampton will be the two Labor seats that will be lost this time round even though they were retained at the 2012 wipeout election. Mackay is also another one that could potentially fall (it is probably line ball with the LNP having a slight edge to gain it).
Making up for these losses, I see Labor retaining a few other seats that were lost in the 2012 wipeout (mostly those in the Logan area like Waterford and Logan with the potential of also keeping seats like Algester, Ipswich and Stretton).
I’m not sure who Labor will put up. As far as I know, the Old Guard faction doesn’t really have anyone lined up for the seat, unlike they have in Mackay (Belinda Hassan)
According to The Cairns Post, Actor Aaron Fa’Aoso is set to become Labor’s candidate for Mulgrave. This’ll be a fascinating contest and until the LNP announce who they’re running, its anyone’s guess.
Aaron Fa’Aoso has been backed by Curtis Pitt, but I don’t think he’s been preselected yet. If he’s backed by Pitt (a Unity MP), I’d assume he’s been recruited into the Unity faction, so preselection would be easy in Mulgrave.
I thought Aaron lived in Cairns or the Torres Strait Islands.
Mulgrave contains suburbs of Cairns.
The LNP would have won Mulgrave and Rockhampton in 2012 under CPV. Under CPV KAP preferences would have comfortably elected the LNP in these two seats. It was the exhausted KAP preferences that allowed Labor to retain the two seats.
Interesting that ABC releases an article about Nepotism in politics and next day, we have the ultimate family battle revealed in Mulgrave (thanks to Cairns Post-Paywalled). Independent Yodie Batzke (Candidate Leichhardt 2010 IND Fed, Senate 2019 UAP Fed, Division 4 Local, Cook 2020 IND) is the Aunty of KAP Candidate Steven Lesina and Aunty of potential ALP Candidate [with backing of Curtis Pitt] Aaron Fa’aoso. Now that would be some family gathering after the election!
Yodie Batzke posted about the family connections six days ago.
Personalities, personalities! Voters want to know where candidates stand on policies. Like serious issues e.g abortion, a new State for North Queensland (including 10 senators) youth crime.
Labor has chosen former Cairns City councillor Richie Bates to run for Mulgrave. Miles reportedly opposed Fa’aoso’s candidacy, although there’s no reason given as to why.
Interestingly Bates and LNP candidate Terry James served together on the council under the “Cairns Unity” group.
Predicting an LNP gain now the Pitt family is out of the picture.
This will be harder for Labor to retain but not impossible
Probably a 20% swing here, but my pick is 18% which would bring the LNP margin at 6-8%. I don’t see it being 30% because that would be the largest swing in history.
20% is much more reasonable prediction. That is still 1/5 changing their preferences from Labor to LNP
It looks like this seat will have the most candidates anywhere this election, but we’ll know for sure this afternoon when candidate nominations close and the ballot paper order is drawn. 7 of the 9 registered political parties are contesting Mulgrave and so are 3 independents. Just missing the Animal Justice Party and the Libertarians.
Ironically I think Mulgrave in Melbourne had the most candidates in the 2022 Victorian state election (that was Dan Andrews’ seat and as an unpopular COVID Premier a lot of right-wing minor party or independent candidates ran against him, the Liberals and the Greens).
Possible alp retain
Yeah Andrews’ status as a bogeyman for the far-right led to every man and his dog running in Mulgrave.
Bates represented a division of Cairns Region that was entirely out of the Mulgrave electorate. James’s old division only superficially overlapped parts of Mulgrave at the extra northern end of the electorate. James of course did serve a short term as mayor, albeit losing re-election in March.
Interested as to why people believe this is a certain – or at the least, very likely – LNP gain, contrary to the rather clear expectations provided by the Australian Elections Forecast site.
https://www.aeforecasts.com/seat/2024qld/nowcast/mulgrave
It’s possible the website is understating – or the general punditry is overstating – the effect of the Pitt family incumbency. Mulgrave hasn’t gone against the ALP since the One Nation breakthrough election of 1998, and hasn’t gone for the LNP or it’s predecessor parties since the 1995 “baseball bats” election.
I think because Curtis Pitt retired so late, giving the new ALP candidate limited time to campaign. He also hasn’t publicly endorsed the new ALP candidate (Richie Bates is from the forum faction, and was preselected instead of Pitt’s preferred successor and his unity factional ally, Aaron Fa’Aoso). The loss of Curtis’ personal vote, and the general anti-Labor swing in the region, puts this seat at risk. I think it will be very close, either a narrow LNP gain or ALP retain.
Interestingly, ONP just missed out on making the 2CP here in 2017. One Nation won this seat in 1998 and in 2012 there was a chance that KAP could have won this seat.
Uncertain probable alp retain
Is Richie Bates in any relation to Ros Bates?
This one is in play. If Curtis Pitt we’re running again or had announced his retirement much earlier, and therefore allowed more campaigning time, I would’ve said lean Labor retain.
@Nimalan Curtis Pitt had 48.1% on primaries though so Labor still would’ve won even if One Nation made the TCP instead of the LNP.
@ Nether Portal
Yes and the Greens got 6%, while 2017 was a good result for ONP it will not as good as 1998. They need labor to be at just under 40% and ONP to make 2CP for them to have a chance at winning. Nevertherless it is one of the stronger urban seats for ONP. It is very hard for ONP to win a LNP V ONP seat with CPV as Labor will preference the LNP over them. In 1998 there was OPV but the ONP outpolled can first in a few seats and won.
@ Real Talk the Pitt family have held the seat since 1998. Now resigning, in a region experiencing high swings against it, the 12% margin seems demolished, at least to me. Couple that with the fact that the Katter party will be preferencing LNP in this seat (I believe) makes this seat hard to place in the Labor column.
In my opinion, the AEF forecast is way off, giving LNP a fraction of a chance of winning seems unjustifiable. They’re estimating that the regional swing is around 7%, which is less than the statewide polling estimate, which would already reflect far higher swings in regional seats. And then, the truly crazy part in my opinion, is shifting 1% to the LNP due to the incumbent not seeking re-election. 1% ?! Curtis has held the seat for 15 years and his father for another 10 years, Curtin resigning is going to cause a far, far larger swing. The estimate also estimates that the Katter candidate will perform substantially worse than in 2020, which seems unlikely, and doesn’t seem to factor in that preference flow I mention before.
If anyone can provide any good reasoning for Labor holding this, I would be very interested.
I think Labor has a path to retaining.
The big swings to LNP will be in the Townsville area and regional centres and peri-urban areas between Townsville and Brisbane. I don’t see Cairns as swingy as Townsville where the youth crime issue will bite Labor.
Alp will hold because of the higher margin and that Cairns is not as unfriendly as Townsville
I would say that the huge amount of that margin is a personal vote for Curtis Pitt. on 2022 federal figures, Labor would have lost here quite easily. This could be one of the big swings on Saturday night.