Moggill – Queensland 2024

Possible Green gain, best prospect of an LNP loss, will stay marginal regardless. This isn’t safe anymore like it used to be back on the Beattie years for the Liberals, federal election proved that and elected a Green which was considered an upset.

QLD TPP was 54-46 to LNP at the federal election and if it’s close to 50-50 at the state election, the LNP will be facing an uphill task to resist the trends against them here, and it’s not as much demographic trends, but rather trends because voters are turned off by the LNP’s increasing conservatism.

Rowan is more vulnerable than Mander and Nicholls, and I dare say the member for Chatsworth as well.

given that there’s decent odds the lnp end up running third and directing preferences to labor in the greens’ other target seats, this one might actually be one of the most winnable greens seats of all next year.

Furtive, wouldn’t the lnp want to direct preferences to the greens so it forces Labor into minority easisr?

Unless the lnp already know they can get enough seats from the Labor marginals

Yoh An: that would be the ‘tactical’ play i guess but Deb Frecklington got an awful lot of flack for doing it last election.

I’m not as bullish as others on a Greens victory here perhaps. In an election where it looks like the LNP will make gains, the enthusiasm from the Ryan victory may need to be tempered a little. The Greens will need to make gains from Labor in the Mount Crosby area and from the LNP around Pullenvale and Bellbowrie. I’ll be more confident of the outcome once I see the result in the council ward of Pullenvale. A Greens gain there puts this seat right in play. A backslide means it will likely stay LNP.

The Greens should be able to make it into second here but winning it would be much more of a stretch given that there’s likely to be a general swing to the LNP at the election, and that should probably be enough to offset any broader movement towards the Greens here.

I feel it’s worth pointing out that the expected swing to the LNP may not be uniform and this area may swing against the trend. The overlapping federal seat of Ryan swung to Labor (and the Greens) at the 2019 federal election against the strong state trend towards the LNP. It also recorded a slight swing to the LNP at the 2016 federal election despite the state as a whole swinging to the ALP. I’m not sure it’s clear yet that inner-city seats will swing in the same direction as the rest of the state at the upcoming election. It might depend on the type and tone of campaigns that get run by LNP, ALP and GRN which are perhaps not clear at this point.

Babaluma – while it’s likely there will be a statewide swing away from the ALP (federal drag, government age, giving back the 2020 covid bump, etc) it’s entirely possible that a strong Greens campaign in Brisbane (including in seats like this) will see disaffected ALP votes move to the Greens, rather than the LNP.

Similarly, the LNP in this area is suffering because of the widening ideological gap between their small-L liberal voters and the conservative culture warriors. There’s been quite a bit of movement of people into the seat since the beginning of covid, and most of it has been from the inner city (or inner Sydney or Melbourne), none of which is likely to be friendly to the conservative Rowan.

The real question will be whether the Greens actually allocate resources to go after the seat. Just the amount they spent to win South Brisbane in 2020 is larger than the cumulative total of all ALP and Greens spending in Moggill in the last 20 years. Will they bother to try though? My understanding is that the ‘red seat’ faction is wildly dominant in their decision making bodies.

On Yoh An and Furtive’s discussion of LNP preferences – the LNP’s decision to preference the Greens in 2020 was made when the Greens were only really a threat to Labor. Now that Greens MPs are sitting in two previously blue-ribbon LNP federal seats they’re very unlikely to want to hand the Greens state seats in those areas to help them solidify their gains, at least in my opinion.

Which would support the argument that this is actually one of the Greens most winnable seats, though as I said above – only if they can be bothered trying.

Keep dreaming of a Greens win here.
This area was not why Ryan was lost.
Christian Rowan will hold on to his primary vote & finally get a shot within government.

If I were the Qld Greens in Brisbane, I wouldn’t target this seat until McConnel and Cooper are secured. Gradual flipping is easier funds-wise than rushing everything at once. After those two are flipped, Moggill, Miller, and Greenslopes would be next in 2028. After 2028, go after Clayfield, Ferny Grove, Stattford, Bulimba etc.

BJA – there were huge swings in tons of Moggill booths at the fed election, but you might be right that it’s still not quite enough to win the state seat.

BTW Ben can we get an open thread for the Qld election? It’s pretty awkward carrying on conversations about the broader election across multiple single seat threads.

LeoT, what is the “red seat faction”? It sounds like a group that wants to prioritise winning seats currently held by Labor rather than the LNP. Is that correct?

The Greens would need to do more than just win over disaffected Labor voters to win Moggill – they would need to get a significantly larger LNP -> Greens swing than any Labor -> LNP swing, and that is what makes this seat seem more challenging. The Labor -> Greens swing is much less important, since all the Greens really need there is to get ahead of Labor which would not be particularly difficult.

re: Greens Political Party Supporter – this is not an inner city seat though. I agree that I would not necessarily expect inner city seats to swing to the LNP, but this is not one of those seats. In 2019, it was mostly the eastern end of Ryan (where the Greens are strongest) that notably swung against the LNP, there wasn’t much movement in the rest of the seat.

Sure, I’ll unlock the QLD guide front page for general comments.

@Ben Raue when will the NT guide be published? Also when will all of these guides be unlocked for everyone?

I can’t write my NT guide until the redistribution is concluded. That will be in September, so probably it’ll need to wait until after the referendum.

I’ll probably unlock these guides a few months out from the relevant election.

Not very bullish on the Greens chances here but they will at least have a good shot of appearing in the final TCP outcome. Firstly, Moggill encompasses all of the parts of Ryan that were difficult for the Greens at the Federal election. Moggill comes in at #1 in Queensland for people ages 45 – 54 and simultaneously has the lowest proportion of people between 25 and 34. Not very typical demographics for a Greens division and a contrast in age composition to the neighbouring Greens seat Maiwar. It is also is #1 in Queensland when it comes to highest median household income which makes it a strong division for the Coalition generally speaking.

https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/moggill

Interestingly, looking at the teal divisions at the Federal Election, these were divisions which were similarly affluent and included large cohorts of voters between the ages of 35 and 55. Perhaps Moggill is more fitting for a teal candidate. Greens can do well by again capitalising on the vacuum of teal candidates, but I would stress that circumstances feeding into the federal election context might not at all apply at this state election.

@Furtive
Fix the Kenmore roundabout & build a car bridge out of Bellbowrie/Moggill will get the votes out here. Crickets from the Greens on those issues!

LNP retain, most likely. I may become LNP vs GRN.

I agree with various comments above that the Greens have little chance in Moggill, just because they won Ryan. The most Liberal and least Green parts of Ryan happen to fall into this electorate. Moggill probably is the most Green out of all state LNP seats though.

The Greens won’t ride the benefits of LNP preferences in Moggill like in South Brisbane in 2020 because LNP will most likely top the primary votes. In South Brisbane, it was a Labor heartland seat that had an enroaching Green vote and LNP’s preferences were the dealbreaker.

*I agree with various comments above that the Greens have little chance in Moggill, even though they won Ryan.

Alright, I’ve taken it upon myself to perform this calculation:

TLDR; I’ve estimated the margin here based on the 2022 federal election results to be LNP 2.39.

I will admit, I was expecting the LNP margin to be larger than that.

Methodology:

The ordinary booths within both Ryan and Moggill are: Bellbowrie, Brookfield, Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill South, Kenmore, Kenmore South, Moggill, Pullenvale, and Upper Brookfield. There is one ordinary booth within both Blair and Moggill – Karana Downs. For Karana Downs, we’ll use the Labor versus LNP 2PP to impute the Greens versus LNP 2CP.

The resulting 2CP from these booths is LNP 0.82.

The ordinary vote 2CP in Ryan was GRN 4.22 compared to a total vote 2CP of GRN 2.65, a difference of 1.57. Adding this to the 2CP we calculated, we arrive at LNP 2.39.

It will be interesting if the Greens make the 2CP in Mogill and longer term in Clayfield.

@Nicholas
While I do not really expect the Greens to win this (I suspect they will not try that hard this time and wait for 2028), it would be interesting if things defy my expectations and Moggill swings against the LNP contrary to statewide trends.
2.39% (from 2022 Feds) or 3.59% (from 2020 State) does not seem insurmountable.

This will be an LNP vs Greens contest.

Although I’m predicting that the LNP will retain this, it won’t be the same as it was years ago.

At the 2001 and 2004 state elections, Moggill was the only non-Labor seat in Brisbane, having been held by former state Liberal leader David Watson. It took until 2005 for the Liberals to gain other seats in Brisbane when they gained Chatsworth and Redcliffe at two by-elections held on the same day. At the 2006 state election, Labor regained Chatsworth and Redcliffe from the Liberals but the Liberals still managed to gain Clayfield from Labor.

History of the Liberals/LNP in Brisbane and Ipswich in the 21st century:

* 2001: one seat (Moggill)
* 2004: one seat (Moggill)
* 2005 (by-elections): three seats (Chatsworth, Moggill, Redcliffe)
* 2006: two seats (Clayfield, Moggill)
* 2009: six seats (Aspley, Clayfield, Cleveland, Indooroopilly, Moggill, Redlands)
* 2012: all but four seats in Brisbane and Ipswich (Labor held only Bundamba, Inala, South Brisbane and Woodridge)
* 2014 (by-elections) all but six seats in Brisbane and Ipswich (Labor held only Bundamba, Inala, Redcliffe, South Brisbane, Stafford and Woodridge)
* 2015: 10 seats (Aspley, Chatsworth, Clayfield, Cleveland, Everton, Indooroopilly, Mansfield, Moggill, Mount Ommaney, Redlands)
* 2017: six seats (Chatsworth, Clayfield, Everton, Moggill, Oodgeroo, Pumicestone)
* 2020: five seats (Chatsworth, Clayfield, Everton, Moggill, Oodgeroo)
* 2024 (by-election): six seats (Chatsworth, Clayfield, Everton, Ipswich West, Moggill, Oodgeroo)

It’s pretty clear that historically speaking that the eastern and far western suburbs of Brisbane have been the friendliest to the Liberals.

The Queensland Parliament has approved the Net Zero legislation including a 75% 2035 target. The LNP actually voted with Labor and the Greens for this which is sometimes i did not expect in a seat like QLD. I think Labor is also relieved there is bipartisanship and climate may not be a wedge issue for maybe even a decade at a state level. Interestingly, yesterday it was report that QLD smashed its 2030 target of 30% years ahead of schedule.

*something i did not expect

I would expect the LNP at a bare minimum to recover Mt Ommaney and Redlands. Further gains would include Mansfield, Aspley and Pine Rivers to get the LNP up to 10 seats for the Brisbane metropolitan area. Combined with all the regional gains (3 Townsville seats plus Bundaberg, Nicklin, Keppel as definite gains), that should be enough to put them into majority.

I think Greens will finally make 2nd but I’ve been convinced enough by others here that it’s a bridge too far to actually win the seat. Greens will still need to campaign hard here to retain Ryan which is why I think they’ve called it a target seat (that and so the initial announcement wasn’t dominated by ALP held targets).

@ John
were you surprised about LNP supporting net zero legislation.

@Nimalan I certainly wasn’t. A lot of the party’s members were already on board (including myself).

@John then the Greens don’t seem to realise that the Greens booths in Ryan were in Maiwar not Moggill (Moggill itself was marginal). Most of the population of Ryan lives in the eastern, southern and central parts closer to either Indooroopilly or Moggill. The north and west haven’t got much (suburbs like Pullenvale and Brookfield are solidly LNP, as are the semi-rural outskirts like Banks Creek, England Creek and Lake Manchester). Fig Tree Pocket also seems to be conservative. Cooper is an average target so it’s still a better target than Moggill.

The Greens best target would probably be McConnell.

I don’t see the Greens winning this seat unless vast demographic changes happen. Only a Liberal or Teal will win this seat for the foreseeable future.
1st lowest proportion of Renters in Queensland: 12.97%
1st lowest proportion of Age 25 – 34 in Queensland: 7.26%
https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/moggill

The Greens have a reasonable chance of making it into second here but it really isn’t winnable for them this election. Talk of it being a target seat can be expected to be largely about avoiding criticism of only targeting Labor seats. as part of their usual ‘list every seat that vaguely appears winnable within a few election cycles as a target’ approach. If they devote serious resources to trying to win it they’d be very foolish.

They have a good chance at making it into second here this election though, even without seriously trying to win it.

@Babaluma my TCP prediction is LNP 61%-39% Greens but that’s just my guess. The notional TPP (LNP vs Labor) will probably be similar.

@ Nether Portal
I agree with you, i am pleased the Climate change legislation had the support of all 3 parties. It allows both LNP and Labor now to focus on economic difference.

I’ve seen some comparisons between Moggill and the federal seat of Ryan. Wasn’t the collapse in LNP votes in Ryan driven by resentment towards Scott Morrison and his responses to floods and bushfires? There was also a teal wave down south. Scott Morrison’s gone now.

I don’t expect a huge shift to the Greens in Moggill as seen in the same areas at the 2022 federal election. I’m not super bullish on the Greens. Moggill has a low population of renters and 20-something year-olds – two key target demographics of the Greens. Most 20-something year-old renters are probably already Greens voters.

The bipartisan emissions targets might give some political leverage to One Nation, though not much. This is because of their climate denialism stance. One Nation preferences will mostly go to LNP. This will extend the LNP’s lead.

Labor does have some pathway into the final two, albeit a pathway narrower than in 2020. It’s possible that Labor will run dead as they focus more on sandbagging their marginal seats.

From the BCC results, the equivalent Pullenvale Ward swung to the LNP.

Unless an Independent like Kate Richards decides to contest the seat then I don’t see this changing seats.

@ Nether Portal
I like how you have stated the Brisbane seats in the 21st century as this is good at looking at the pathways to power for both parties. I would actually extend it to 1989 which is the seen as the start of the Modern Queensland political era.

LNP retain but I think it’ll end up as LNP v GRN TCP. Labor have endorsed arguably their best candidate for Moggill in a very long time.

He’s already out actively campaigning and has a great CV for an MP – also a doctor. I just don’t get why they’d run him in an unwinnable seat?

On the back of poor votes for Greens (citywide) & Kate Richards at BCC elections & the Labor candidate already out roadsiding, thinking this may stay LNP vs ALP contest. Given the way things are looking, LNP primary may lift 3% and everyone’s hypotheses above are meaningless.

2024 shaping to be the start of the 4th era in QLD politics! (Not saying its going to be continuous LNP government but haha that’s the dream)

It most likely be LNP V GRN 55.82 – 44.18 more or less

I think it’ll stay LNP vs ALP because Labor has selected a strong candidate who has started campaigning quite hard.

@AA I agree more with @Caleb’s prediction though personally I would say something like 58% LNP TPP, with a notional TPP (LNP vs ALP) of 58/59% LNP.

Everything’s the beginning of a new era in politics, until it isn’t. I remember when people thought 2012 heralded the start of a new era of LNP domination in Queensland until it came to an unceremonious collapse three years later.

@PRP – Why didn’t they run him in Redcliffe? Arguably would have been a much better candidate than an ex-Victorian Liberal party member lol.

No idea @James. I don’t profess to understand the psyche of the modern Labor Party. They’ve made lots of questionable candidate choices. Putting good people in unwinnable seats and duds in seats they could actually win.