ON 9.0% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Stephen Andrew (KAP), since 2017.
Geography
North Queensland. Mirani covers regional parts of Queensland from the southern edge of Mackay to the outskirts of Rockhampton. The seat covers parts of Isaac, Mackay and Rockhampton local government areas, and the towns of Mount Morgan, Dysart and Middlemount.
History
The seat of Mirani has existed since 1912. Apart from the period 1935-1947, the seat was held by MPs who belonged to the Country Party, National Party and Liberal National Party until 2015, when Labor won the seat before losing to One Nation.
Jim Randell held the seat for the National Party from 1980 until 1994. His resignation triggered the 1994 Mirani by-election.
Ted Malone won the 1994 by-election for the National Party. He joined the merged Liberal National Party in 2008. Malone was elected to his first full term in 1995 by a solid 59% margin, before dropping to a slim 53-54% in 1998 and 2001.
Malone increased his margin to 60.6% in 2004, but lost support in 2006.
The most recent redistribution in 2009 favoured Labor, and Mirani became a notional Labor seat. Malone held on by a slim margin of 50.6% in 2009, and then gained a swing of over 10% in 2012. While Malone had served as a shadow minister before the 2012 election, he moved to the backbench when the LNP won power in 2012, before becoming an Assistant Minister in late 2012.
Malone retired at the 2015 election, and Labor’s Jim Pearce won the seat with a 16% swing.
Pearce only held Mirani for one term, losing in 2017 to One Nation’s Stephen Andrew. Andrew was re-elected in 2020.
Stephen Andrew was disendorsed by One Nation in 2024, which led to him quitting the party and joining Katter’s Australian Party in September 2024.
- Stephen Andrew (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Susan Teder (Labor)
- Patricia Martin (Family First)
- Glen Kelly (Liberal National)
- Brett (Beaver) Neal (One Nation)
- Maria Carty (Greens)
Assessment
Andrew holds Mirani by a substantial margin, but a small swing to the LNP could see One Nation fall into third and lose.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shane Hamilton | Labor | 9,412 | 32.0 | -4.8 |
| Stephen Andrew | One Nation | 9,320 | 31.7 | -0.4 |
| Tracie Newitt | Liberal National | 8,123 | 27.6 | +0.7 |
| Jason Borg | North Queensland First | 1,200 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
| Ben Watkin | Greens | 715 | 2.4 | -1.9 |
| Nick Byram | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 342 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Tepepe Borg | United Australia | 329 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 1,146 | 3.7 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Stephen Andrew | One Nation | 17,363 | 59.0 | +4.2 |
| Shane Hamilton | Labor | 12,078 | 41.0 | -4.2 |
Booths in Mirani have been divided into three areas. Polling places on the outskirts of the Mackay area have been grouped, and the remainder were split into north and south.
One Nation won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.6% in Mackay to 65.1% in the north.
The LNP came third, with a primary vote ranging from 24.8% in Mackay to 30.7% in the south.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ON 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 26.7 | 65.1 | 4,582 | 15.6 |
| South | 30.7 | 56.5 | 2,241 | 7.6 |
| Mackay | 24.8 | 51.6 | 2,020 | 6.9 |
| Pre-poll | 24.8 | 58.0 | 13,316 | 45.2 |
| Other votes | 33.0 | 59.7 | 7,282 | 24.7 |
Election results in Mirani at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (One Nation vs Labor) and primary votes for Labor, One Nation and the Liberal National Party.
6 News reported via the Australian on Friday that Andrew has filed paperwork to join the Katter’s. I still think the swing to the LNP statewide may be too large for him to overcome, but he seems out and about in the community already and I don’t think joining them really hurts (or helps) him at all. Will be interesting to see if they can finally break their curse of failing to elect MPs outside Kennedy’s boundaries.
I think the lnp will win this one now. People often vote for a party more then a candidate with a few exceptions so I think this will be an lnp gain
Why did onp dump him?
They had one mp now they will have none
Will he last longer in Katters than Fraser Anning did…. I wonder.
LNP gain. Labor will run dead and cop the statewide backlash. If Stephen Andrew does run, Labor preferences will push the LNP over the line. On top of that, there’s the momentum behind the LNP.
Any reason why Pauline dumped him? There are no free articles online. He’s bound to be the last ever ON lower house MP.
@Votante – from my vague memory, Stephen Andrew had started to lean towards joining the KAP. They dumped him because of that.
& @Daniel T
@james. .. I don’t live in nth Queensland so it is hard to tell. But I think Pauline dumped him as he was not hung ho onp enough…. I think the moves towards the Katters were AFTER he was dumped.. but Volante is right no more onp lower house mps. ( Ashby will not win in Keppel)
Why will.alp preference the lnp here? I can see no reason to do so
@Mick Quinlivan
One Nation probably dumped him because he almost completely dissociated himself from the party, over the last few years. Completely de-branded, no mention of their the party or their policies on socials and in his speeches.
Also, they likely had Brettlyn Neal lined up to contest this seat, before they dumped Andrew.
AA…. that makes sense
Stephen Andrew acted like an independent for years – not much usage of the One Nation logo in his branding and little mention of the party or Pauline. Perhaps it was sour grapes.
Daniel T, Andrew probably will last longer than Anning did because he’s not a white supremacist who attends neo-Nazi rallies. Probably wouldn’t be welcome at them anyway given his ancestry. Accepting Anning was the Katters’ biggest political mistake and it’s a good thing they corrected it relatively quickly.
If Andrew joins the KAP, and makes the 2pp, he could win on ALP and ONP preferences.
I notice that Labor’s past HTV cards put the KAP second in Hinchinbrook (causing them to leapfrog the second placed One Nation in 2017, and win on ONP preferences), and third (behind the Greens) in Traeger.
So it’s not out of the picture that Labor will put the KAP above the LNP – and obviously, One Nation will put the KAP above the LNP – and Andrew will win.
Is it a given that One Nation would put the KAP above the LNP in Mirani if Andrew is the KAP candidate? I could see them making an exception here out of spite
@AA that’s only if he makes the TCP vote though, and he may have even switched to KAP because Labor preference them above the LNP and One Nation.
In Kennedy, 68.3% of Labor preferences flowed to Bob Katter before the LNP candidate (Bryce MacDonald).
Preference flows from Labor to KAP in Kennedy at each federal election:
* 2013: 84.6% (+0.8%)
* 2016: 79.8% (-4.8%)
* 2019: 74.4% (-5.4%)
* 2022: 68.3% (-5.6%)
So it seems that Labor voters are slowly beginning to preference the LNP over KAP, but the majority of them still preference KAP over the LNP (probably because HTV cards recommend that). However, KAP and Labor are gradually losing votes to the LNP as we can see from the LNP TPP increasing in recent elections, albeit only slightly.
@Nether Portal I think Andrew will make the 2PP. Labor won’t make it, because they don’t have a candidate yet, and I just can’t see One Nation beating Andrew on first preferences.
Labor also doesn’t class Mirani as “winnable”, so there won’t be many resources put into it.
@AA if he makes the TPP he COULD win, but it’s certainly not guaranteed. If Labor and One Nation lost enough votes to the LNP then the LNP would win. Obviously we know Labor will lose a lot of votes to the LNP but how much is the question, and will One Nation drop massively this time after they gained ground last time despite crashing everywhere else.
At the moment I now have Mirani as a tossup for either the LNP or KAP. If he hadn’t joined KAP it would be an LNP gain.
lnp will win if not on primaries on onp preferences
this could actually end up being onp v lnp in whcih case it will depend on whether labor and andrew send their preferences
@John Andrews will go to One Nation and Labor will go to the LNP.
Andrew has now been officially welcomed into the fold by KAP as per a Facebook post earlier today. I’m now thinking it will definitely be an LNP v KAP contest, but whether or not he pulls through depends on how strongly preferences flow to him from Labor and One Nation. The LNP candidate is very out and about and while Andrew is campaigning as well he could probably do with picking up the pace a bit.
@Laine if it’s LNP vs KAP then KAP will likely win depending on how high the KAP vote is and how low the Labor vote is.
Sitting mp to retain
Labor cannot win I think so I think it is better to help the
Kap candidate to win. Esp if the alp vote recovers a bit and they might need to talk to the Katters
@Mick Quinlivan given that we’re 47 days out from the election, I don’t think we’re gonna see any change in the overall outcome. Some seats might be saved or lost, but I think it’s pretty clear now that Labor will lose. They would need to pull off a shocker to even get close and those types of shockers (i.e the outcome of elections themselves) aren’t really occurring anymore and when they did they certainly weren’t common. We still certainly get shocks in specific booths and even specific seats, but not for the whole election. Yes it was a shock that the CLP won a landslide last month but polls and analysts still predicted the CLP would win so it’s not unexpected that they won, it’s just that the magnitude of their victory was unexpected (though polls did technically predict it quite accurately, but analysts were too naïve and sceptical of these polls to take them seriously).
KAP win, helped by Labor and One Nation preferences.
Poll Bludger shows 6 candidates on the ballot in the order of KAP, One Nation, LNP, Labor, Greens & Family First. i predict that the One Nation vote will collapse just like it did in every other seat back in 2020.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Mirani
Currently a tossup because while the LNP should finish first Labor and One Nation preferences will favour KAP. If KAP finishes second the LNP will need to crack about 45% (or more) of the primary vote. This is a general rule of thumb for non-classic contests involving parties that get Labor preferences where the Coalition finishes first, for them to win they need at least 45% of the primary vote to win. Of course how many votes required to win depends on how many votes the other candidate gets though (hence why the Liberals won Higgins in 2019 but lost it to Labor in 2022).
This will be an interesting seat lnp in the 2pp but against who? They would easily beat onp or Labor on the others preferences but it will depend how much of the vote andrew can bring across from onp to kap.if kap can make 2pp they could win but I’m doubting if they will tbh as this is not the normal district that would poll a significant amount of support for KAP. I’d imagine andrew would have lost if he were still in onp.
I’d say lnp vs onp or kap. Labor will likely drop to at least 3rd
Well this seat is further complicated now that One Nation are attacking the Katters and accusing them of doing some sort of deal with Labor. Ashby is behind it, and not only is he their candidate in nearby Keppel of course, but he’s also the leader of the party in Queensland as of two weeks ago. There’s really nothing to be gained from this behaviour, they were never going to get Mirani back once they disendorsed Andrew, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll win elsewhere, especially in seats where the KAP are competition. It’s just the last gasps for relevancy by a soon to be defunct party.
I’m kind of predicting Stephen Andrew holds, helped by Labor preferences. There may be some tactical voting as Labor voters get behind him.
KAP scored 19% on primary votes here in 2012. KAP scored over 20% in Callide, Nanango and Gympie, seats that are further south, at a time when there was also strong momentum going the LNP’s way.
One Nation killed the goose that laid golden eggs. People will vote for Stephen Andrew for him rather than for his party. Hardly anyone, other than Malcolm Roberts, has stayed in ON for that long.
Based on this you’d think onp will preference the libs so il say lnp gain
@Votante
KAP got over 20% in Callide, Nanango and Gympie in 2012, because One Nation wasn’t running. They also had a celebrity candidate in Nanango.
Could this be the end of small rural towns voting One Nation? Swayneville in Capricornia was the only booth that voted One Nation in 2022. In 2019 they won Ambrose and Mount Larcom in Flynn and Milbrodale in Hunter.
@John I doubt they will given Robbie Katter made sure to reiterate in his Facebook post that the KAP will continue their preference deal with One Nation despite this incident. Even if One Nation’s HTV cards advise LNP over One Nation, I don’t think their voters will follow it. Their allegiance is generally to minor right wing parties above all else.
@Votante Andrew is well known here and I suspect now that he’s dropped the One Nation banner Labor supporters will be much more willing to tactically vote for him. The LNP primary vote is very low and they probably won’t win unless their primary vote is around 45% as Nether Portal said earlier.
@Laine, I agree that ON voters may not necessarily preference LNP. They are generally anti-establishment voters.
In NSW, three now-independent state MPs left SFF last term and all three were returned at the general election with much larger margins. To be fair, there was an anti-LNP swing statewide. My point is that it’s possible to leave or get booted out of a party and hold onto your seat, especially with a strong personal vote.
Jim Pearce was popular here, why exactly did he lose in 2017 despite the swing to Labor statewide in 2017? Also Turnbull wasn’t exactly popular in these parts federally so it’s strange a popular state Labor MP lost here.
@Daniel T He had been in parliament for decades and most of Mirani’s population lives in areas he never represented while he was MP for Broadsound and later Fitzroy. The 2015 election was also more or less the last hurrah for Labor in certain regional seats like Mirani and Burdekin (the latter of which they still couldn’t even win then.)
Ben, why do you list 2 One Nation candidates?
@Daniel T Stephen andrew was disendorsed by ONP and replaced with Brettlyn Neal
Stephen Andrew is officially with KAP https://stephenandrew.com.au/2024/09/10/mirani-mp-stephen-andrew-joins-forces-with-the-katter-australia-party/
I’m thinking of renaming this Shoalwater.
KAP has announced they are preferencing the LNP over Labor. Labor could decide to retaliate by either preferencing the LNP or handing out split preferences cards which would be significant in this seat. You could ask why would Labor do this? Simple they don’t necessary think KAP should get a free lunch, and will have to preference Labor back if they want something in return.
@Political Nightwatchman Are they doing it in all of their seats though? I would assume yes, but the article I read yesterday implied it would only be in the three Townsville seats. Trying to predict the result in Mirani is pretty much pointless until we see the HTV cards honestly, it’s a complete mess of unknowns and preference dealings.
If Labor does go ahead and preference the LNP over the Katter’s here Andrew will likely lose, even if a large amount of voters ignore the HTV card. It could even give a scare to the MP for Hinchinbrook as well if the LNP swing statewide pulls the KAP vote below 50% there.
@labor will likely still preference kap because it’s politically advantages by this in keeping the seats out of lnp hands.
If Labor were to preference the LNP over Katter in Mirani, would they do the same in all the other KAP seats? Frankly, I can’t see it happening – agree with John – for the ALP KAP is preferable to LNP.
On another note, if there was a hung parliament – highly unlikely – doubtful that KAP would allow the ALP to hang on as it would just backfire on them down the track.