McConnel – Queensland 2024

@AA in Victoria, the seat of Richmond (a progressive inner-city Melbourne seat) went to the Greens in 2022 even though the Andrews government (like the Allan government) was quite progressive. Yes preferences may have helped but the Greens still finished first.

As you said, Liberal preferences were the main factor behind Richmond falling to The Greens. Plus the retiring member factor, and controversies around the new Labor candidate’s claim to have Aboriginal heritage.

Mcconnel has none of these factors. People have been saying it will fall to The Greens since 2017, but that just haven’t happened.

@ Nether Portal although federal politics are usually not an indicator of state-level support (and vice-versa), I think the federal division of Melbourne having a long-term and high profile Green MP for the previous decade probably helped them finally pick up Richmond in 2022, as well as of course the retirement of Richard Wynne and subsequent loss of incumbency for Labor.

Personally I’m still tipping a Greens win in both Cooper and McConnel, but I can see the argument for why they might hold on, especially considering how they fell below expectations in the council elections earlier this year. It certainly helps Labor that neither Bush nor Grace are as scandal-plagued as Jackie Trad was.

@Nether Portal

Another possible factor is that Steven Miles is very popular with young people on social media. As a young person, people who I talk to are very supportive of his policies. This electorate has a young demographic, compared to the rest of the state.

After the events of the last few months I wonder if there may be increased leakage from Labor votes going to the Greens.

@Redistributed you mean like more Labor voters than usual preferencing the LNP above the Greens?

@Redistributed

People can differentiate between federal and state Labor. Especially in Queensland. So any of the recent events (CFMEU, census) involving federal Labor won’t really affect state Labor’s chances.

NP – exactly! If that does occur the Greens may have a problem in Ryan and/or Brisbane.

NP and redistributed – this phenomenon where Labor votes flow less strongly to the Greens actually occurred in Fannie Bay for the NT, enabling the CLP’s Laurie Zio to win instead.

this is what may help the libs win back ryan and brisbane and may also help the coaltion in richmond in nsw

Just reading through these comments, and I wonder if it is worth the ALP preferencing the Greens behind the Libs in seats like this (maybe all of QLD). Hear me out. We know from experience that once Greens win a seat at a general election they are very hard to remove. If the Greens win seats like this, it means that next time around Labor will need to fight on two flanks in order to get a majority. There would also be the chance to find out just how many Labor->Greens voters there really are. If it turns out that even preferencing the Libs sees a 70%+ flow to the Greens then maybe the ALP should seriously consider a more formal agreement with the Greens. If however ALP voters follow the HTV and send prefs to the Libs, then the ALP can drive a much harder bargain with the Greens. Currently, the Greens (and a surprising number of their voters) think because the Greens send prefs to the ALP they have power over Labor Governments and have a mandate to block Labor policies if they conflict with their own. If it turns out the other way, that the Greens are reliant on ALP prefs then the ALP can play much more hardball when the Greens turn up to block Labor plans.

Following on from the South Brisbane thread, Duffey (the LNP candidate here) has been very overt in his support for the LGBTQ+ community, and is openly gay himself.

I’ve just noticed, the 2PP margin here isn’t that large… is there an outside chance the LNP wins this?

@Nicholas similar to Trevor Evans was also openly gay and a moderate.

Trevor should run for a state seat.

@Nicholas – yes there is. As a resident in McConnel I can confirm the LNP has a relatively strong base to work from here as demonstrated in March when they held the Central ward. The tired trope of gentrification is responsible. This part of Brisbane continues to become more expensive and the demographics reflect that. The Labor vote in the inner city areas of Brisbane has eroded at all levels of govt over the past 20 years and I suspect they will come a distant third next month in McConnel as the general anti-Labor swing bites. The LNP is already very active locally as are the Greens – I see this as a blue/green battle. Even with FPV, I suspect the result will be close if the LNP primary vote is high enough.

Mostly Labor Voter, Labor are of course free to set their HTV recommendations any way they wish. However, I would suggest there are two reasons they’ve never recommended the LNP ahead of the Greens.

Firstly, the LNP are Labor’s competition for forming government, whereas the Greens are not. And the Greens will always back Labor in a hung parliament unless Labor actively pushes them away. So recommending the LNP above the Greens damages Labor’s chances of holding onto power.

Secondly, leaving Labor voters aside for a second and looking only at their volunteer base, many of these people are motivated by ideology, and their ideology is much closer to the Greens than to the LNP. Recommending the LNP over the Greens has the potential to alienate many volunteers and cause them to not show up, which would be terrible for Labor’s ground game and potentially cost them seats elsewhere.

And why would the Greens ever agree to a formal agreement with a party that recommended the LNP over them? They’d probably see Labor as an unreliable partner who will try to dispose of them as quickly as possible like Gillard did to Wilkie a decade ago. Expecting the Greens to turn around and agree to a deal after being snubbed is wishful thinking.

I think you misunderstand why the Greens feel they have the mandate to vote against Labor policy that conflicts with their own. It isn’t about preference flows, it’s simply about their values. Their voters expect them to stand for a set of values, even if it makes no difference to the final outcome. This is why the Greens have voted against Labor on numerous bills in the current Queensland Parliament, despite them not having the power to block anything. The Labor majority ensures the bills get passed regardless. And I feel certain they would continue this pattern regardless of preference flows. The threat of being recommended lower than the LNP would not stop them voting against new fossil fuel projects.

Perhaps this comes down to whether Labor find minority government to be an acceptable outcome for them. If so, they won’t recommend the LNP above the Greens anywhere. If not, then they might do so, hoping for a majority in future. But it shouldn’t be taken for granted that Labor will be able to achieve that next election. They’ve lost multiple inner city electorates to the Greens and the rural socialist vote to Katter. This makes them very dependent on suburban Brisbane and regional cities for a majority, and those areas may not all return to the Labor fold next election if they’re lost in this one.

Labor will always preference greena ovee libs as if they donr tue greens will weaponised it against them. Libs can’t win this seat as the combined labor,greens vote is just way too strong to overcome.

I can’t think of a better way to hasten Labor’s demise as the alternative party of government than picking now, of all times, to play tough guy with Greens preferences

If Labor cannot win then it would be in their interests to use their preferences if relevant against the lnp.
A minority position gives you a chance of governing and if it is a lnp minority make it harder for them to govern. Also I would not assume the Katters would back a lnp govt

@Mick it will be liberal majority in latter sides with labor has not only ruini n g his career in state politics but his career in federal politics when his dad retires or should I say gets voted out because it would probably ruin bob katters chance of reelection

@Elisa A – You make a great point there. LNP held Central Ward this year when I feel 99% of people said that they would lose it to the Greens. And I agree on your point on how Labor’s vote has practically evaporated in Central Brisbane, especially with more renters (Greens) and overall more affluent and wealthy voters (LNP). Grace Grace has strong personal vote and I do believe she could hang on very narrowly, but with Labor on the nose and the LNP and especially the Greens polling well coming into the election. It’s a typical example of how changing demography hasn’t caught up with Labor here yet, as LNP held Central Ward in 2024 and the Greens won Brisbane off the LNP in 2022. It will this time.

I think seats with a strong Green campaign will see muted ALP to LNP swings, even if Labor’s primary vote takes a big hit. Crisafulli is running a very small target campaign, which is what you do if you expect people to vote your opponent out rather than you in. That means in strong Green areas, they’ll be better able to hoover up the disgruntled Labor vote.

I don’t see the LNP picking up any Greens target seat off Labor (though they’re well positioned to retain Moggill and Clayfield). Do the Greens have enough prominence in Brisbane to also mute swings in seats like Mansfield? Not really seeing it.

Anyway, GRN gain.

@Blue Not John Mansfield will be an LNP seat, suburban Brisbane will swing to the LNP. There will be some swing to the LNP in the inner-city seats too but most of Labor’s lost vote there will go to the Greens.

McConnel should be a Greens gain. Also, Clayfield and Moggill will be retained by the LNP. Pullenvale Ward had a swing to the LNP and against the Greens in 2024 even when the Greens did well elsewhere.

There’s apparently been a union poll done here by DemosAU that has the Greens on a primary vote of 37.9%, the LNP on 27.4%, and Labor on 27.2%. William Bowe over on the Poll Bludger suggests this gives Labor about an even chance of surviving to the final count and winning on LNP preferences.

I can’t really see this seat being a Greens vs Labor contest though, especially with how the LNP is polling statewide. Predicting a Greens gain here, Grace Grace’s personal vote is not going to save her. She is 66 so I don’t think she would run for re-election in 2028 anyway, the Greens would be poised to snatch it then regardless.

@Laine that poll reeks of inaccuracy. There’s no way the Greens are gonna finish THAT far ahead of everyone else.

I think the TCP will be something like 58% for the Greens (vs LNP). The LNP should do better in Maiwar which I think the LNP will finish first but the Greens will win on Labor preferences.

There will be less candidates so the inner-city seats should be quick to be called unless they’re close (just like Brisbane City Council wards since they only had LNP, Labor and Greens candidates plus independents in a few wards). No One Nation, no UAP, no independents. Just LNP, Labor and Greens.

@Nether Portal I don’t think you realise how strong of a campaign the Greens are running im McConnel and Cooper. I’ve heard one of the candidates describe Cooper as “The strongest ground campaign we’ve run in history”. I do however agree that it’s strange the LNP do so bad here

@Am Now it may be a good campaign but they won’t finish 10% ahead of the majors. The LNP will finish second or maybe even first (narrowly) but the Greens will win because of Labor preferences. The vast majority of voters switching to the Greens are Labor voters.

@Am Now I live in Cooper, and the current Greens campaign is not THAT strong.

It is nowhere near what they put into their South Brisbane 2020 or Griffith. It’s probably got the same amount of energy as their 2020 Cooper campaign.

the campaign that got a 9% swing in 2020? that campaign?

It’s been reported in the Australian Labor’s internal polling has Grace Grace retaining this seat. Labor internal polling suggested Labor outpolling the Green 27% to 24% with the LNP on 34%.

Hmm. I take seat polling with a grain of salt, though this suggests both Labor and Greens will suffer swings.

I do believe it’s a tossup. Labor has some path to retaining. Like I mentioned before, I’m not so bullish on the Greens. Grace Grace won’t top the primary vote this time. There is talk about young renters swinging to the Greens but bear in mind, a large portion are non-citizens such as students and backpackers. Grace Grace might have a personal following of her own. Labor to LNP swings will be quite muted in the inner city as the big anti-Labor resentment is in the regions and outer suburbs.

I’d say Cooper is a near certain Greens gain.

Grace Grace is Sicilian, as was the previous LNP Member and former Federal Member Teresa Gambaro.
It’s a big help in this Seat.

I reckon mcconnel will be lost

Gympie, confusing statement. There isn’t much of an Italian community in McConnel anymore, let alone Sicilian specifically, as the community has been around so long they’ve moved all around Brisbane (and the Italian community in Brisbane was never that big anyway compared to those in the other mainland state capitals). I think Gambaro and Grace both being Sicilian is a coincidence rather than any kind of explanation for their political success.

Obviously Grace Grace being the incumbent is helping. But The Australian suggested the abortion issue “has helped Labor’s cause in Brisbane, where it faces losses to the LNP and the Greens”. That was in the context of the polling was evidence of this.

The abortion issue, suddenly coming into the limelight, would have a bigger effect in electorates with younger female voters and more professional or uni-educated women, though it won’t reach American levels of polarisation. It will have less effect in the outer suburbs or the regions.

There may be tactical voting for Labor in McConnel to prevent the LNP winning.

@Wilson
I think Gambaro and Grace both being Sicilian is a coincidence rather than any kind of explanation for their political success.
Gambaro knocked off Arch Bevis, a Labor heavyweight, in Brisbane in 2010, after losing Petrie in 2007.
Outside ’75-’80, Brisbane had been Labor forever.
So, it didn’t hurt that she is Sicilian in the suburbs of Bowen Hills, Fortitude Valley, Herston, Kelvin Grove, Spring Hill, New Farm, Newmarket and Windsor, particularly since she is well know in the Italian/Sicilian community.
Member for Brisbane Central [now McConnel] 2012-2015] Roberto Cavallucci also Italian.
Apart from Crisafulli, the only Sicilian I can recall in Qld Parliament was Martin Tenni in Barron River 1974-’89.
Different story in Fedceral Parliament, there’s been Gambaro, Ross Vasta, Con Sciacca, all Sicilians, just off the top of my head.

@Gympie

Teresa Gambaro knocked off Arch Bevis in 2010, because a redistribution meant the seat lost the Labor areas of Mitchelton and Keperra, and gained the Liberal areas of Ascot and Hendra.

While is a Sicilian/Italian community in inner Brisbane, demographically it doesn’t make up much of the population. Especially as New Farm and Spring Hill have gentrified over the past few decades. I think it’s similar to the greek communities in West End.

The supposed internal Labor polling PN is talking about also predicts the ‘other’ vote to be ~17%. That is, 17% shared between One Nation and Family First. In McConnel. Does that sound believable to anyone?

ALP could still retain though, especially if LNP runs 3rd on 3PP.

This is the seat details for McConnel from AEF
https://www.aeforecasts.com/seat/2024qld/regular/mcconnel

Furtive in will not run 3rd here it’s looking likely according to exit polls they will finish first on 40+%

im taking the lnp @$10 wanted to put down a hundred but sportsbet only allowed a maximum of $28

If the LNP win this that will be good for them winning back Brisbane federally.

@john at this point im willing to say it will be regained based on the numbers coming out of mcconnel

@np sry

Alp retain
Grace Grace has a sizable
Personal vote

@mick ive got $28 saying she loses.

@A A “Teresa Gambaro knocked off Arch Bevis in 2010, because a redistribution meant the seat lost the Labor areas of Mitchelton and Keperra, and gained the Liberal areas of Ascot and Hendra.”
Thanks to Wayne Swan shafting him in his submission for Lilley. 🙂

A serious question now – what on earth is happening in McConnel with the early voting?

Out of a enrolment of 42,218, they’ve put through almost half (19,463) in the first four days.

@mark I’ve obtained this exclusive audio about that question

Swing on in McConnel?
Christie Duffey descibes himself on Instagram as a proud gay man, might be difficult for Grace to counter that in a seat like McConnel?