Maryborough – Queensland 2024

Nothing to see here unless the incumbent stands down or the LNP win a comprehensive victory of around 55-60 seats.

Saunders is the Peter Watson, Leon Bignell, Janelle Saffin and Michelle Rowland of this seat. They members I mentioned have done well winning in difficult circumstances and even one in massive landslides a cycle or 2 later like Bignell and Saffin.

Mental health advocate and small business owner John Barounis, has been selected as the LNP candidate for Maryboroug.

As mentioned Bruce Saunders has turned this into a Labor stronghold. The buffer he’s got I just can’t see the LNP pegging it back in one election. Labor retains.

It was reported in the Courier Mail Bruce Saunders had discussions about joining Katter Australia Party. But Saunders has denied this report. But those talks have now cooled since Saunders was made assistant minster it was reported. Maryborough isn’t obvious Katter Australia Party country, being a city and a suburb in the Fraser Coast Region. I will acknowledge the party did get almost 20% of the vote when it stood a candidate in 2012.

Labor might as well write the seat off if Saunders defected. They will be hoping Saunders will stay in the ALP tent because Maryborough is there best chance of retaining in Wide Bay. And the party would likely be focusing more resources in trying to hold neighboring Bundaberg and Hervey Bay from falling to the LNP.

Night-watchman. Why would he defect. He has the seat in any circumstances short of a
Lnp landslide

@ Mick Quinlivan Agreed. Maryborough has had a bit of an odd voting history at times in the past so I wouldn’t completely rule out a an abnormal result, but there’s currently no reason to think Labor will lose it this year unless the election ends up catastrophic for them.

This is an excellent example of the impact of
Personal votes usually in
Country areas. I don’t think
Brendan Hansen was defeated.. think he retired

I agree with the above comments that Bruce Saunders built up a huge margin. This area in Wide Bay is federally an LNP stronghold. If he defects, his state politcal career will almost certainly end and the non-LNP will be split, creating a three-way race.

Although in 2017 ONP reduced the seat to a 2.5% margin by running a Fraser Coast councillor. So the personal vote for Saunders might not be as strong as it appears in the 2020 result.

Probably the best ONP pickup opportunity if the LNP’s climate targets hurt them in these regions (which I refuse to subscribe to) Matt Canavan can moan about it but in reality his position of climate denialism is out of mainstream with the majority of QLD’s

This will be close due to Saunders position. But he is a Leon Bignell and Peter Watson but if the LNP win big then he will not survive. Now the question would be, If Labor fell to 3rd place, would they put principle first and preference the LNP over ONP rather than ONP who are much more right wing??

I doubt Labor falls to 3rd. I can see a scenario where Labor comes 1st, but LNP and ONP split but preference eachother so whoever gets 2nd wins the seat with relative ease (3-8% margin) I estimate on current polling and LNP/ONP split.

@Daniel T I think the LNP will win this and I think the swing will be huge. If One Nation wants to pick up another seat their best shot is probably Keppel but they really need to focus on retaining Mirani since Labor isn’t finishing first there, so Stephen Andrew needs to finish first or else One Nation loses representation in Parliament.

I haven’t made a proper vote prediction for this seat yet (I’ll do that soon) but I’d say the swing will be huge but not bigger than the swing I predicted in Keppel.

Predictions:

Primaries:
LNP: 40.4% (+14.1%)
Labor: 27.2% (-26.1%)
One Nation: 15.5% (+2.3%)
Greens: 5.8% (+3.1%)

TPP:
LNP: 61.8% (+23.7%)
Labor: 38.2% (-23.7%)

Note that none of my vote total predictions for any seat will be 100% accurate, some may be a fair bit off, but they are sourced from factual information. Again, these predictions are based on opinion polling, historical trends and my own general knowledge.

I’m skeptical of a swing >20%. We can agree that the pandemic and Covid scare boosted the Labor result in 2020. A possible scenario is that Labor and LNP will almost tie but ONP preferences will carry LNP across the line.

There won’t be a 26% swing away from Labor. I think this seat will have a smaller swing because of Bruce Saunders’ popularity and Labor’s investment in Torbanlea train manufacturing. A lot of jobs in that industry, which the LNP decimated when they built NGR trains in India. I also think there will be a bigger swing towards One Nation if they put up a candidate soon and get on with some real campaigning.

I would estimate (on primary votes) a 14% swing from Labor, 9% swing to the LNP and 5% swing to One Nation.

So it would probably be an LNP gain but with a very small margin. One Nation preferences would push the LNP over the line.

Interesting comments and predictions in this thread. I’m leaning more towards a Labor retain and relatively easily too.

Saunders has bucked the trend time and time again but also now has a substantial margin. I think he’ll hold on with not much of a swing against him.

He’ll never be a senior minister/shadow minister – but I just can’t see him losing Maryborough.

The LNP will likely take this, the swing is on hard in regional areas. The margin is big because of the COVID vote, and One Nation in 2017 took this down to the wire. This seat will probably go with the new government in spite of Mr Saunders. Likely to be one of the safest Labor seats to fall.

Do you guys seriously think bruce saunders won this seat the last time? Maryborough is a swing seat. Independents win, liberals win, one nation wins….. its not a safe labor seat. The only reason labor won last time was due to the highly politicised virus that Annastacia and the media win the election with. It had nothing to do with bruce… old people were scared of the spooky covid in 2020

I speak to a lot of people on the streets of Maryborough every day including other small business owners like myself and they are all voting one nation. They feel abandoned by the 2 major parties. We will see on polling day but i am voting one nation, my family is, my neighbors are and the surrounding business owners are

People I speak to on the streets of Maryborough are overall very pleased with how Bruce has performed as the local member. They are worried an elected One Nation and LNP MP making decisions that will take away investment/jobs/projects (e.g. timber industry investment, QLD train manufacturing program) that Bruce has worked to bring to the area. People have also mentioned their concerns about One Nation’s inability to deliver anything at a state level because they simply don’t have the numbers/support in the parliament.

I can’t see why the liberal party or one nation would want to disrupt the timber industry. One Nation would form government with David Crisafulli who is paying $1.10 with sportsbet to be the next premier.
Labor is out in Queensland.

I also wouldn’t post online what I hear on tithe streets about Bruce. None of it is pleasant but if you were speaking to the public of Maryborough you would already know that.

Pauline Hanson stated on sky news last night that one nation was polling at 33% in the seat of Maryborough. With preferences from the liberal party it’s a done deal that either one nation it the liberal party will get in

Frank, Crisafulli has stated he will privatise train manufacturing and send it back offshore, just as Newman gutted Maryborough and hundreds of jobs were lost.

‘Polling’ that Pauline quotes cannot be evidenced. We will only know the real result after 26th Oct. We are clearly not speaking to the same people in Maryborough. I hear from people who are grateful that someone cares enough to advocate for them, lobby in parliament for funding for the area and bring jobs here. Yes, I hear from people who vote LNP, but they have also stated clearly to me that they see how much Bruce has delivered for people in this area and that they hope he is returned.

I think One Nation has a real shot at winning this seat. The Covid factor is gone, people are feeling neglected by Labor, but they won’t vote LNP because they value local manufacturing (the Torbanlea train manufacturing program is likely gone under Crisafulli).

What is One Nation offering to the people of Maryborough, beyond not being one of the major parties?

Please have a look at Jarrod Bleijie recent post stating categorically that the trains will stay in Maryborough. The LNP is all about keeping and growing the job market in Maryborough, not destroying it. Small parties can promise what they like because they know they are unable to deliver on those promises. Only the major parties can do this.
John Barounis, the LNP candidate, has the right priorities for the Maryborough Electorate.

If onp wins in excess of 1 seat they will split.. creating more independents.

Where personal votes are involved usually in country areas …. it can be very difficult to defeat sitting mps. I remember a seat named Albury which was won in a Labor landslide narrowly and retained for 10 years

@Mick Quinlivan country raised person here. I think it varies by area.

Some areas I would classify as impossible for Labor to ever win, such as where I grew up (in the Port Macquarie area in NSW) and a few other rural areas (such as the Tamworth area in NSW, Gippsland in Victoria or the Wheatbelt in WA). The areas I just mentioned have always voted for conservative parties because the voting base is lower-middle-class and mostly white or Aboriginal but also the main occupations are in agriculture, tradie jobs and then in the city or town centre you get a lot of white-collar workers like nurses, doctors, business owners, etc. The demographic is also older on average.

Labor would be more likely to win Kooyong or Mitchell than a seat like Gippsland, Lyne or modern-day Maranoa.

@Tricia are you a paid LNP advertiser?? Up until very recently, the LNP have been attacking Labor’s train manufacturing scheme. And they have a strong history of sending manufacturing overseas and neglecting Aussie manufacturing. But that’s a discussion for another day.

@Wilson I’m by no means a One Nation supporter (I’m actually a Labor member). I’m just saying what I think could happen in that seat. One Nation aren’t offering anything to this seat, but people always like to protest vote if they don’t like either of the major parties. They did that in 1998 and they did that in 2017. That’s the whole reason why One Nation gets votes in the first place. People are unhappy with Labor, and they haven’t forget that the LNP have a history of sending manufacturing overseas.

An independent in a country area needs to be loyal though and needs to be respected by Nationals voters. Rob Oakeshott was (he was an ex-National) but then when he went with Gillard for the stupid reason that he was a Turnbull fan and Abbott was leader, he retired but would’ve lost anyway, and his former advisor Peter Besseling lost the state seat of Port Macquarie due to his association with a now unpopular Oakeshott.

There was even a sign at a car dealership in Port Macquarie that said “Oakeshott, you bloody sellout!”

He’s more popular in Coffs Harbour than in Port Macquarie and Kempsey despite living in Port Macquarie.

@AA I do agree that One Nation gets a protest vote from the Coalition and Labor. I think Pauline Hanson also has a massive personal appeal. She is the face of the “bogan vote” in Australia. She isn’t your typical politician, she appeals to the everyday Australian with everyday policies. This is why she’s so successful. She’s not as silly as people think. I don’t agree with her policies most of the time but I can see where she comes from on most issues (not climate change or COVID-19 restrictions/mandates though).

I know a lot of One Nation voters, and I can definitely see where Pauline’s popularity comes from, and why people vote for her. To really simplify her voter base – she does a good job at appealing to everyday “Aussie battlers”, which is why her success comes from white working-class people in outer suburbs and rural centres. Most people vote for One Nation because of her, and not because of the party. Once she retires, it will be very hard for One Nation to keep going. I completely agree with you – I don’t agree with most of her policies, but I can see where her viewpoints come from, except on COVID and climate change.

I agree with AA’s analysis of the typical One Nation voter, She does appeal to White Working Class voters in peri-urban, Regional and Rural areas. One thing that is often missed is that while One Nation voters are culturally working class they are often older and wealthier than average with very high rates of self-employment and home ownership. Kos Samaras and other have pointed out there is a misconception that One Nation voters come from disadvantaged backgrounds which is not true They are not the ones you see on the SBS Documentary Struggle Street (on welfare) they would be Labor voters. I think she appeals to this demographic because she speaks her mind without a politicians filter.

Yes completely agree Nimalan. A lot of older, self-employed people do make up a large part of her voter base. That feeling of nostalgia and that “things were better back then” often drives them to vote One Nation.

It’s not the most disadvantaged (on welfare) who vote One Nation, you correctly pointed out they vote Labor. It’s the older working class, who believe they are more disadvantaged than anyone else (and often have degrading stereotypes about people on welfare).

Interestingly there’s a few articles that were pointing out that younger working class people in the regions have started to flock to One Nation as a protest vote – because Pauline speaks her mind and is so well known. This video is the closest thing I can find, and has some interesting data in it –> https://youtu.be/yueLCDE94DY?si=cH86YxHQQCFC0m75

This article is also quite interesting –> https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/27/looking-back-and-angry-what-drives-pauline-hansons-voters

Well the local One Nation candidate happens to own a restaurant in town that’s won a fair few awards and she has most of the small business owners in town on her side.
Yes there is a massive Pauline factor but the candidate is a well known business owner with lots of friends in town so if I had to bet I say One Nation takes out the seat with preferences from the LNP…

That is of course unless the LNP preference ALP but I’m sure their local donors and supporters would never forgive them if they did

The ALP also conducted phone polling last week through a 3rd party. Many people in town spoke on Facebook community pages about these telephone polls. The typical responses were they weren’t voting Labor and they were voting One Nation.

The fact that ALP never released any of this telephone polling data leads me to believe it wasn’t a favourable polling exercise

One Nation won’t win..
They dumped their sitting
Mp for Mirani

It will be hard for Labor or One Nation to win this. If Labor wins it’ll only be because of Bruce Saunders.

@Frank phone polling isn’t as reliable as it used to be as hardly anyone under 60 answer the phone to an unknown number for a poll survey.

@Caleb this just isn’t how polls are conducted anymore. The pollsters capture a lot of raw responses and then chop a heap to get a “weighted” sample of say 1000 people (which is made to look like a cross section of the general public). They report only these weighted results.

To achieve this, the pollsters capture a few things like the age and gender from the respondents. They filter all of their responses down to a sample that best matches the demographic profile of the wider public. Even broken down by regions.

So you’re right that their responders are predominantly over the age of 70. But most of these respondents get filtered out so that their sample of over 70s is a similar proportion to the rest of the general public. They’re also not reporting their surveys until they have a sufficiently decent sample of responses for a good weighted sample, that usually means capturing over a longer periods in the past, until they’ve had enough young respondents.

*over a longer period than the past

Bruce Saunders won the seat with 25% of the primary vote in latest election 53% primary…… there is a huge personal vote. . There is a 50/50 chance that he will survive a big swing

A interesting side point in nsw at a state seat level Labor has held 90% of the country seats at some time in the past eg Lismore for a couple of times round 60 to 1965. This was much more anti Labor then currently

@Mick look at the 2017 election, he almost got beat by One Nation. The margin in 2020 is greatly inflated due to COVID and a weak performance from One Nation (parachuting a candidate in from Callide).

@Mick it depends where in NSW. Industrial towns used to vote Labor but you’ll find that places like the Mid North Coast and the lower Riverina never voted Labor.

Np. In past… Lismore Bathurst Orange Ashburnum (mispelled) Cootamundra Dubbo Liverpool Plains Goulburn Casino Clarence Yass Castlereagh Young Wagga Albury Armidale and I think I missed some. Lots depended on personal votes and some were held only for 1 to 2 elections I am sure the towns you mentioned never voted alp

@Mick the ones that haven’t though include Coffs Harbour, Myall Lakes, Oxley, Port Macquarie and Tamworth. We can see a regional pattern here.

AA. … if just won with 25% primary you would not expect to win 2 subsequent elections with increasing primary votes each time. There is clearly a personal vote for Mr Saunders.

The ones you mentioned were mostly industrial towns, like Broken Hill for example is an industrial town.

Armidale and Northern Tablelands were held for very short periods of time, while Bathurst is a classic industrial city like Broken Hill is. However, Bathurst swung by over 30% to the Nationals in 2011 and it’s stayed that way.

Np:agreed…. the areas you
Mention are a mid North Coast area before Grafton and Tamworth

Forgot Murrumbidgee.. the Mia.