ALP 6.7%
Incumbent MP
Julieanne Gilbert, since 2015.
Geography
North Queensland. Mackay covers the central suburbs of the city of Mackay from Mackay Airport to Slade Point.
History
The seat of Mackay has existed continuously since 1878. The seat has been held by Labor MPs, since 1915, although one MP became an independent for a period of five years in the 1970s.
William Forgan Smith held the seat for the ALP from 1915 to 1942. He served as Premier of Queensland from 1932 to 1942. Fred Graham held the seat from 1943 to 1969.
Ed Casey won Labor preselection in 1969. In 1972 he lost preselection, but won re-election as an independent, continuing as an independent until 1977 when he was re-admitted to the ALP caucus.
Casey served as leader of the ALP from 1978 to 1982, and continued to serve as Labor Member for Mackay until his retirement in 1995.
Tim Mulherin won Mackay in 1995. Mulherin held Mackay for seven terms, and served as a minister from 2005 to 2012. Mulherin retired in 2015, and was succeeded by Labor’s Julieanne Gilbert.
Gilbert was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Julieanne Gilbert is not running for re-election.
- Paula Creen (Greens)
- Nigel Dalton (Liberal National)
- Kylee Stanton (One Nation)
- Norman Martin (Family First)
- Ben Gauci (Legalise Cannabis)
- Belinda Hassan (Labor)
Assessment
Mackay is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julieanne Gilbert | Labor | 14,632 | 46.5 | +3.6 |
| Chris Bonanno | Liberal National | 10,061 | 32.0 | +7.2 |
| Christine Keys | One Nation | 3,965 | 12.6 | -10.1 |
| Shaun Krstic | Legalise Cannabis | 1,378 | 4.4 | +4.4 |
| Imogen Lindenberg | Greens | 1,071 | 3.4 | -1.6 |
| Julie Saunders | Informed Medical Options | 382 | 1.2 | +1.2 |
| Informal | 1,314 | 4.0 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julieanne Gilbert | Labor | 17,862 | 56.7 | -1.6 |
| Chris Bonanno | Liberal National | 13,627 | 43.3 | +1.6 |
Booths in Mackay have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 56.1% in the centre to 59.3% in the north.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.6% in the south to 13.8% in the north.
| Voter group | ON prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 11.6 | 57.5 | 3,222 | 10.2 |
| North | 13.8 | 59.3 | 2,831 | 9.0 |
| Central | 11.7 | 56.1 | 2,344 | 7.4 |
| Pre-poll | 13.2 | 56.8 | 17,647 | 56.0 |
| Other votes | 11.1 | 55.0 | 5,445 | 17.3 |
Election results in Mackay at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and One Nation.
Mackay narrowly stuck with Labor through the 2012 wipeout and has been Labor held for the past century barring a brief independent stint with Ed Casey. Yet it and Thuringowa were the only two regional city seats (besides the two in Toowoomba) to record a swing against Labor in 2020.
It may be on a path towards a situation like Bundaberg in the early 2000s? A historically safe regional city Labor seat that had its margin eaten away every election until it finally fell to the Nationals and remains with an LNP lean today (despite currently very marginally being held by Labor.)
Wondering if Crisafulli will put in an effort here. I’m skeptical it will flip now but it might be worth a try depending on whether or not the LNP take a truly decisive lead in the polls.
@Laine Crisafulli would probably at least try to win Mackay and Rockhampton.
You pointed out Bundaberg flipping from Labor to the LNP. I should note that one thing that contributed to Labor losing Bundaberg in 2006 was the “Dr. Death” scandal. Basically an Indian surgeon named Jayant Patel worked at Bundaberg Base Hospital and was deemed guilty of fraud and was responsible the deaths of 87 patients. According to Wikipedia:
“The city’s urban population has long made the seat a Labor stronghold. This changed in 2005 when the practices of rogue surgeon Jayant Patel at the Bundaberg Base Hospital were uncovered. The Beattie government was seriously embarrassed by the subsequent Commissions of Inquiry into the matter, and as a result the seat was considered winnable for the Nationals.”
The issue with Rockhampton/Mackay is that the LNP primary vote in generally low. The reemergence of One Nations in the second half of the 2010s has meant that Labor has not been able to rebuild its margin to the Beattie/Bligh years. CPV has also meant the the ONP votes dont just exhaust compared to the past. I would say this is true in Bundaberg as well where Labor has not been able to solidify their position since regaining the seat in 2015. While there may be a TPP swing against Labor in Mackay in 2020 they did in fact increase their primary vote at the expense of ONP but the LNP just did it by more hence the swing to LNP. For the LNP to win they need a strong flow of ONP preferences but ONP is less disciplined in its preference flows compared to Greens to Labor. It is what enabled the Labor to win Higgins with only 28% primary.
I think anything under the 6% margin is at risk of falling to the lnp. Under those circumstances they will get to 47 seats to form a majority.
In all honesty, I actually think the LNP can finally win Mackay and Rockhampton. It’s widely predicted that the LNP will win the next state election (that’s what I think will occur too) but the swing outside Brisbane will be larger than the swing in Brisbane. I predict that the LNP will have a swing to them of at least 8% outside South East Queensland (as a whole), which would be enough to narrowly win Rockhampton and enough to win Mackay with a 2% margin.
Mackay is one to watch throughout the election. The margin is not insurmountable for the LNP but it’s surprising how little effort they’re giving this seat. No candidate and only five months to go.
Labor MP, Julieanne Gilbert doesn’t seem to be working that hard to hold it. One Nation also polls relatively well here and the LNP could actually win this, with their preferences.
The thing about Rocky and Mackay is that there won’t be money to throw at them when LNP win, so why campaign there much?
If those electorates vote LNP anyway, well it’s on them, but at least Labor won’t be able to claim that LNP didn’t keep their promises.
One Nation and (more importantly) the LNP have candidates here now. I think the LNP’s choice of candidate is very good, being a long serving police officer, community member and Mackay Australia Day award winner last year. And I say this as an ALP supporter. The LNP definitely have a strong chance at this seat now, and could topple Labor using One Nation preferences.
Agreed with AA – an excellent choice of candidate by the LNP and Labor should be very worried about holding Mackay now.
Gilbert has today announced she won’t be re-contesting her seat – if it wasn’t before, this almost certainly has to be an LNP gain now.
She even had a swing against her at the 2020 state election as well. Unless Labor find an absolutely stellar candidate, you might as well already put Mackay in the LNP column.
LNP gain. Historic gain since they’ve never won this seat. I have no idea why they didn’t win it in 2012. Same goes for Rockhampton.
They haven’t won it yet. Not since the Beattie years have Labor gained more than half the primary vote in Mackay, yet preferences have split more or less 50% between the ALP and the LNP. If ONP voters are serious about unseating the ALP, they’d have to be more disciplined in sending their preferences to the LNP.
I’m not saying it can’t happen; just that patterns in the past will have to change somewhat.
LNP to win for sure
This will be a marginal LNP gain, but Labor will win it back in 2028 or 2032.
I think the margin will be about 4%.
Labor candidate is Belinda Hassan. Seems like a fine enough candidate and is able to get reelected to council without much trouble. But she is also the 2019 Dawson candidate, in what was thought to be a “winnable” seat, who had a 12% swing against her 2PP to George Christensen. Also quite a late preselection.
The only reason I’m not sure Labor has lost this seat is because I was sure it was a goner in 2020 yet they hung on.
@Blue Not John (love your new alias by the way) I’m sure Steven Miles would be praying for that too. Unfortunately you can stick a fork in the regional seats because they’re done. Should’ve done more on youth crime and infrastructure (for example, the disastrous state of the Bruce Highway) to woo the regional votes.
In these regional seats it is in the interest of voters to keep them marginal so they can potentially receive government expenditure. It is also in their interest for the election result to be reasonably close for much the same reason a Mackay or a Rockhampton won.by.the lnp as part of a
65 seat haul then.they.get zilch
The idea is to vote for who you want representing you not how to get more money from the govt. If every has that ideology you’d end up getting the wrong mp
Run the reverse promise the voters that if elected nothing extra would be spent on that electorate
Or here is the extra but this is conditional on you voting for our candidate
LNP wins this for the first time in the seat’s 100+ year history.
Yes but no ones gonna vote to make the seat marginal because they could be getting the wrong candidate in. That’s what government or even oppositions say when they’re desperate.
@Votante same as Rockhampton unless Margaret Stretlow gets up.
Labor’s vote in regional QLD has been in decline for sometime. Labor may struggle to win Mackay back in 2028 and it may not be a safe Labor seat again.
Federal Labor has had this issue for a few terms now. The economic transition meant a declining old-school Labor base. There’s an ongoing realignment of regional, working-class towns to conservative parties, including economic nationalist ones e.g. KAP and One Nation.
This ongoing trend did have a blip in 2020. In 2020, the Covid pandemic and hard borders gave a boost for Labor in regional QLD. In 2024, a mood for change or “it’s time” and a retiring member, will make it easy for the LNP to gain this.
i cant see stretlow winning in rockhampton this time around shed have to carve a heap from the labor vote. without a competitive 3rd candidate this should be an easy lnp gain
I was sure they’re better look after everyone it’s been over 10 years since Calvin Newman yet what are the liberals offering and how are they paying for it? I think that helping us with red Joe is in electricity public transport is much better than giving money to our bosses. Let’s think about this, the liberal government agreed with pay Cutts well cos we’re making record profits at a level still gonna bring in a land tax as for youth crime, put 10-year-olds in jail and see what happens when we have a death in custody. He sounds like another right wing, nazi, I’m pretty sure he’s just gonna divide up the states well for months he’s business Friends, we need to help the rich vote for the LMP
Very outside chance alp
Retain.
Big George before he went over to onp.used to claim this seat would be lost….
FINAL PREDICTION: LNP gain.
I’m looking for the biggest swings in each seat. I think the biggest primary vote swing here would be the one found in Slade Point. Labor went from having 50.8% of the primary vote to 30.4%, a swing of –20.4% against Labor. The swing to the LNP there was +12.3%. This just goes to show how damaged the Labor brand is in Mackay. For the Liberals the cities where their brand is most damaged at least federally seem to be Melbourne and Canberra, but for Labor one of the cities where their support has tanked the most would have to Mackay.