ALP 13.4%
Incumbent MP
Joan Pease, since 2015.
Geography
Eastern Brisbane. Lytton covers the Brisbane suburbs of Wynnum, Manly, Hemmant, Lota and part of Tingalpa, near Moreton Bay on the southern side of the Brisbane River.
History
The seat of Lytton has existed since 1972. Labor held the seat continuously from 1972 until 2012, and again since 2015.
Tom Burns won the seat in 1972. He served as Labor leader following the disastrous 1974 election, and led the party to an improved result in 1977, before stepping down as leader in 1978.
He was elected as Deputy Leader in 1984 and became Deputy Premier when the ALP won power in 1989. He retired as Deputy Premier and Member for Lytton in 1996.
The 1996 Lytton by-election was won by Paul Lucas. Lucas joined the ministry in 2004. In 2007 he became Deputy Premier.
In September 2011 he retired as Deputy Premier while continuing as Attorney-General, and then retired at the 2012 election.
In 2012, Labor candidate Daniel Cheverton lost to LNP candidate Neil Symes after a 13.8% swing. Symes lost in 2015 to Labor’s Joan Pease. Pease was re-elected in 2017 and 2020.
- Jade Whitla (Greens)
- Chad Gardiner (Liberal National)
- David White (One Nation)
- Jim Vote (Family First)
- Joan Pease (Labor)
- Craig Moore (Independent)
Assessment
Lytton is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Joan Pease | Labor | 17,067 | 52.2 | +3.3 |
| Gordon Walters | Liberal National | 9,955 | 30.5 | +6.1 |
| Ken Austin | Greens | 3,450 | 10.6 | -0.8 |
| Debra Smith | One Nation | 1,289 | 3.9 | -11.5 |
| Georgia Phillips | Informed Medical Options | 606 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Jonathan Spaits | United Australia | 321 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 856 | 2.6 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Joan Pease | Labor | 20,708 | 63.4 | +1.3 |
| Gordon Walters | Liberal National | 11,980 | 36.6 | -1.3 |
Booths in Lytton have been divided into four areas: central, east, north and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 61.5% in the east to 65.7% in the west.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.7% in the centre to 14.2%. in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 13.3 | 63.0 | 2,706 | 8.3 |
| East | 14.2 | 61.5 | 2,573 | 7.9 |
| Central | 10.7 | 65.4 | 2,319 | 7.1 |
| West | 11.6 | 65.7 | 976 | 3.0 |
| Pre-poll | 9.4 | 62.9 | 15,662 | 47.9 |
| Other votes | 10.5 | 64.1 | 8,452 | 25.9 |
Election results in Lytton at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and the Greens.
Spoiler candidate for Wynnum Many ward Craig Moore has decided to run for this seat
Now This i did not know about
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13234691/amp/Craig-Moore-ex-porn-star-Queensland-political-candidate-campaign-slogan-hard-crime.html
Labor would be sweating on Lytton following the loss of Wynnum-Manly Ward to the LNP with a huge double digit swing.
I think they’ll hold on to Lytton but the swing could be around 10%. This falls into Bonner as well.
LNP gain, based on the current mood of Queenslanders in general and the results in Wynnum Manly. Surprised this isn’t a highly discussed seat.
NP, why do you keep correlating council elections to state? How many time do I have to say they don’t correlate, LNP always do better on the council than state and even federal. They gained the ward due to local issues in the council and vote splitting.
It’s like Central Brisbane ward goes LNP but the state seat is a Labor/Green marginal. You cannot compare council to state.
I do agree this would fall to Labor if it is a 2012 result again, but if the LNP are winning between 55-60 seats (modest majority and likely if the 55-45 poll comes true) rather than a wipeout 60-40 loss.
I suspect this will be marginal Labor after the election 2-5%
This is traditional inner city Labor seat of Tom Burns ex deputy premier under GOSS
Alp retain
@Daniel T if I recall correctly I’m pretty sure there was also a small swing to the LNP here federally. It’s one of those areas where the reason it’s moving away from Labor is unknown, but being a beachside area it could just be gentrification.
I do agree that they do better on the local level in Brisbane, but I still think the 13.4% margin may not be enough.
Np I can’t see lnp winning here would need a greater then avg swing. About the same they achieved in 2012.
@John they should at least win the Wynnum and Manly booths.
I don’t think Wynnum-Manly has really gentrified much. The top 5 ancestries haven’t changed between the 2011 census and 2021 census, so there probably hasn’t been a great deal of population movement compared to other electorates. It’s more likely that the slight rightward shift here is due to the ageing population. The median age has climbed from 38 at the 2011 census to 41 at the 2021 census.
I should have said, that data above is for the Lytton electorate rather than specifically Wynnum-Manly, but those areas have also aged and not seen changes in the top 5 ancestries.
@Wilson in Wynnum itself the median age is 43 and in Manly itself it’s 46. Manly is also majority male (usually most places outside remote Australia (e.g the Northern Territory is the only male-majority state or territory in Australia IIRC) have a slight female majority, whereas Manly has a slight male majority).
Men tend to be more conservative than women (on average even a 16-year-old male is more conservative than a 25-year-old female, so I suspect we will see a rising number of couples who have different political views in areas where there is actually even competition between the major parties (so not rural areas) i.e the woman votes Labor and the man votes Liberal).
@ Wilson/NP
I am not sure being Beachside will lead to gentification in Brisbane unlike pretty much all other cities. The reason is the Moreton Bay beaches are really just mangroves and mudflats. In Brisbane, being Riverside attracts premium property prices.
@Nimalan coastal areas like Wynnum, Manly, Sandgate and Shorncliffe have become gentrified since COVID. These areas were affordable suburbs, but house prices have increased drastically.
@Nimalan coastal areas like Wynnum, Manly, Sandgate and Shorncliffe have become gentrified since COVID. These areas used to have relatively affordable housing, but have experienced price rises higher than other (non-coastal) areas of Brisbane.
The demographics don’t show this gentrification yet, but it will become more apparent in the next few decades.
Poll Bludger has 6 candidates one the ballot in the order of Labor, LNP, Greens, One Nation, Independent & Family First.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Lytton
A Scandal has just emerged saying LNP had no idea it preferenced Convicted R*pist in the Lytton electorate and after some digging it looks bad for Adrian Shrinner & Ross Vasta
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/104488632
@Caleb:
Not seeing anything about Vasta or Schriner at your link
@Gympie it’s a little difficult getting links to Facebook posts so here’s link to his Facebook page you’re gonna have to do a bit of scrolling
https://www.facebook.com/share/tidfw7Wo5aSd7iQW/?mibextid=LQQJ4d
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/3hHrKhLVHWeXDVj8/?mibextid=UalRPS
@Gympie forgot to put another link with it, it’s just awaiting moderation
here’s more about this independant? Candidate
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=3891509167818607
On federal results the LNP would’ve got 51.2% of the TPP vote here (excluding postals but including the Wynnum PPVC.
Lytton and Wynnum Manly Ward are virtually identical, and here were the results there:
Primaries:
* Alexandra Givney (LNP): 41.1% (+5.1%)
* Sara Whitmee (Labor): 31.2% (–22.6%)
* Bel Ellis (Greens): 15.4% (+5.2%)
* Craig Moore (Independent): 12.3% (+12.3%)
TPP:
* Alexandra Givney (LNP): 51.1% (+12.5%)
* Sara Whitmee (Labor): 48.9% (–12.5%)
Alp retain… was lost at the 2012 election
Final prediction: Labor retain with 52% TPP. The recent poll boost will only help Labor retain seats in Brisbane, but will still do worse outside Brisbane than they did in 2012.
Agreed np