ALP 7.8%
Incumbent MP
Meaghan Scanlon, since 2017.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Gaven covers inland parts of the Gold Coast, including Pacific Pines, Gaven, Nerang, Highland Park and parts of Carrara.
The seat of Gaven was created at the 2001 election. It was created as a notionally Liberal seat, but was won in 2001 by the ALP. The seat has since alternated between Labor and the LNP.
Gaven largely replaced the seat of Nerang in 2001. Nerang had been held by the National Party from 1986 to 1989.
Nerang was held from 1989 to 2001 by Liberal MP Ray Connor, who briefly served as a minister from 1996 to 1997. When Nerang was abolished Connor unsuccessfully contested the new seat of Mudgeeraba.
Gaven was won in 2001 by Robert Poole of the ALP. Poole was re-elected in 2004.
Poole’s wife and children lived in Thailand, and he was criticised for extended periods he spent overseas. In early 2006 it was revealed that he planned to spend a number of months in Thailand. Peter Beattie demanded that Poole return and threatened the possibility of Poole’s seat being declared vacant. Poole subsequently resigned from Parliament in early 2006.
The 2006 by-election was won by the National Party’s Alex Douglas, defeating the ALP’s Phil Gray.
Less than six months later, Douglas lost to Gray at the general election. Gray held the seat for one term, and in 2009 lost to Douglas, now running for the Liberal National Party.
Douglas was re-elected as the LNP candidate in 2012.
Alex Douglas resigned from the LNP in late 2012, to sit as an independent. He joined the newly formed Palmer United Party in 2013 as the party’s Queensland state leader. He resigned from PUP in August 2014 to again sit as an independent, and lost his seat in 2015.
The LNP’s Sid Cramp defeated Douglas in 2015. Cramp held Gaven for one term, losing in 2017 to Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon. Scanlon was re-elected in 2020.
- Bianca Stone (Liberal National)
- Sally Spain (Greens)
- Ian Reid (Family First)
- Sandy Roach (One Nation)
- Meaghan Scanlon (Labor)
- Jenelle Porter (Legalise Cannabis)
Assessment
Gaven is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Meaghan Scanlon | Labor | 12,932 | 47.5 | +4.4 |
| Kirsten Jackson | Liberal National | 9,021 | 33.1 | -13.0 |
| Sharon Sewell | One Nation | 2,239 | 8.2 | +8.2 |
| Sally Spain | Greens | 1,503 | 5.5 | -5.3 |
| Suzette Luyken | Legalise Cannabis | 1,065 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Garry Beck | United Australia | 292 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Reyna Drake | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 192 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 1,419 | 5.0 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Meaghan Scanlon | Labor | 15,734 | 57.8 | +7.0 |
| Kirsten Jackson | Liberal National | 11,510 | 42.2 | -7.0 |
Booths in Gaven have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with 54.6% in the south and over 62% in the centre and north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 54.6 | 3,155 | 11.6 |
| Central | 62.3 | 2,519 | 9.2 |
| North | 62.6 | 1,633 | 6.0 |
| Pre-poll | 57.3 | 11,707 | 43.0 |
| Other votes | 57.3 | 8,230 | 30.2 |
Election results in Gaven at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal National Party.
Meaghan Scanlon is considered a rising star in the Labor party. And her recent promotion to cabinet suggest Labor expect big things from her. On paper you would think if the LNP win the election that this seat will change hands considering the seat of Gaven is based in conservative Gold Coast. But because Scanlon has built up such a buffer at 7.8%, I’m thinking its going to be too much for the LNP to pull back in one election. On the current statewide polling a Labor hold, on a reduce margin.
Promotions to cabinet can also be to sandbag marginal seats that there is some internal concern of. Although in this circumstance I agree with you that its probably mostly that Labor see big things from her. It would be Labor’s dream to have an elected popular Labor figure in South East Queensland that can blunt LNP’s success in QLD federally (like Rudd did). While simultaneously adding more of Gold Coast’s geography into the key seat mix at state elections. Especially as the Gold Coast continues to urbanise and grows as a proportion of the state and country. Scanlon is a fairly good blue-sky investment in Labor’s future electoral success.
Its been reported there is a tussle going in the LNP preselection for Gaven, with television personality Bianca Stone showing interest in standing. Stone doesn’t live in this seat according to Meaghan Scanlon, and it will be a tough battle to win it from a rank and file vote it was reported. But it was also reported she has “the captain’s call”, being supported by party leader David Crisafulli. Kirsten Jackson the previous LNP Gaven candidate from the Queensland state election in 2020, and Lisa Smith, a teacher and rural fire brigade volunteer are expected to nominate for preselection.
@Political Nightwatchman well, that’s a surprise.
Bianca Stone is a former news reporter who worked as a Queensland respondent for Channel 7, reporting Queensland-related news on Sunrise, the most popular brekky TV program in Australia. She did recently quit Sunrise after 18 years on the show, but a move into politics is very unexpected.
I’ve got nothing against her but I think it’s a pretty strange announcement from Bianca. And I’m not saying a journalist can’t win a seat: ABC reporter Maxine McKew won Bennelong for Labor in 2007, narrowly unseating then-Prime Minister John Howard in a blue-ribbon seat in northern Sydney.
Where is Bianca actually from if she’s not from Gaven? I thought she was from the Gold Coast but I have no clue which suburb or electoral district she’s from.
I read into Bianca Stone’s life, and she’s certainly overcome a lot, having fled domestic violence at 15 and becoming a single mother a few years later, yet being a high academic achiever all the while. Not the stereotypical background of the average candidate, let alone an LNP one. Perhaps that’ll help her seem more relatable to people doing it tough now.
Haven’t been able to find which electorate she lives in, save for that it’s on the Gold Coast somewhere. I did see that she went to Merrimac State High School, although confusingly that’s in Mermaid Waters.
I read another article that suggested Bianca Stone ‘set for shock career switch into politics’. Reading between the lines it looks like a done deal. If Stone is given the parachute or the captain pick for the seat of Gaven which now is looking increasingly likely. It could get messy for the LNP, as it stated in the original article a source quoted that the previous LNP candidate for Gaven, Kirsten Jackson, was “considering her options”. That doesn’t exactly rule out her running as an independent if Jackson misses out on preselection.
Scanlon has a margin of 7.75%, but today’s YouGov poll shows a 9.2% primary increase for the LNP, putting her at risk if the overall swing is reflected here. As Scanlon is young and presumably seen as a rising star in the Labor Party given they elevated her to the frontbench, what might her political future hypothetically be if she loses this election? Unless there’s serious demographic or cultural change, Gaven is unlikely to ever become a safe Labor seat, so she could recontest in 2028 but even if she won again, she’d always be at risk. Could Labor put her second on their Senate ticket behind Nita Green?
@Wilson becoming a Senator would be her safest option.
@wilson she won’t win a second senate spot in 2025. 2022 was a good year for labor. That won’t repeat
I would agree Wilson that this is now looking tight for Labor. I will be tipping this to be one of the closest races on the night given the most recent polling. I imagine that Gold Coast Labor will now be directing much of their campaign energy and efforts into sandbagging this seat now rather than their Gold Coast targets Theodore, Coomera, Currumbin, Burleigh and Mermaid Beach.
Interesting to see posters predicting a repeat of 2020.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/qld2020/gaven2020
And 2017:
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/qld2017/gaven2017
@seq seriously you think theyll sacrifice 5 to save 1?
I am not suggesting that they will be completely giving up or sacrificing these target seats, but I think that ALP’s campaigning on the Gold Coast can risk being spread too thin if they are not considered and deliberate in their targeting. I think that their core priority now will be making sure they hold these seat because it is key to their development goals in the future. Burleigh (incumbent retiring), Currumbin (close margin) and Coomera (close margin + demographic change) will certainly still be live contests. Theodore will probably still end up being a peripheral focus too because of its current margin and proximity to Gaven. It will get some of the rub from the campaigning purely by virtue of its proximity.
What happened to Alex Douglas?
Labor only missed out on.a second senate spot in 2019. Quota is about 30%…2/7 of the votes
@mick now that the greens are able to get one member elected labor will only get a second in their good years 2007, 2022 etc when they take govt from opposition in the other years unless something radical happens laobr will only be able to manage 1. so come 2028 either watt or chisholm will have to miss out.
The LNP will put resources here to take out a Minister and potential future Labor leader. Especially considering Fentiman, Linard have been rather damaged in the last term while the likes of Farmer, Grace, Ryan, De Brenni don’t really have future leader potential. It’s a bit thin behind Dick for next leaders of the party. The other options have little Ministerial experience McMahon, McCallum, Mellish, Boyd.
@LNPinsider future Labor leader? She looks likely to be easily unseated.
She is a high profile minister and clearly a leading talent. My whole point is her seat being within range makes it a target to take out so she isn’t a leadership option post election or anytime in the next term or two.
@LNPinsider I agree she is a high-profile minister but I think she’ll probably go to the Senate next, just saying.
This is one of the too close to calls for me and one both sides will throw everything at. If I had to take a guess, I’d say the LNP will win by a whisker at this stage (especially if Stone is their candidate).
Meaghan is an exceptionally talented young MP for Labor and a solid Minister, from what I can see.
Miles made a mistake by giving her so many portfolios (Housing, Planning, Local Government and Public Works) when she’s trying to defend what is traditionally a marginal seat. It’ll take her away from Gaven and make campaigning near impossible during the actual election campaign.
@PRP miles made a mistake by becoming leader
Quite right. Worst Labor Premier in the country right now. Never understood what Labor saw in him.
I thought his elevation to Deputy Premier was a stretch.
PRP, Jacinta Allan gives him a run for his money after the disastrous state budget down here. But of course Allan isn’t up until 2026.
@prp worst premier* knows the rogt union mates.
@daniel t a close second
Former Sunrise reporter Bianca Stone wins LNP preselection for Gold Coast seat of Gaven it’s been reported in the Courier Mail.
@PN the weird thing about that is that it’s turned from a genuine surprise to an unsurprising situation in like two months.
I expected her to win once I heard she was running but I didn’t expect her to actually run in the first place. To use a soccer analogy, it’s like how nobody thought Bayer Leverkusen would win the German Bundesliga but eventually were the favourites to win the season unbeaten after a long unbeaten streak.
Based on the excess in cooperation dragging the rest of the gold coast seats north Gaven will problem be abolished in favour of reviving Nerang
Coomera
Chance of alp retain given the margin with 9% av swing
@mick look at exit polling 47-36 on primary votes gone for all money
It reported in the Australian, there is optimism in Labor sources, about Meaghan Scanlon’s chances of retaining Gaven. Despite Gold Coast being economically conservative, the public like Brisbane are socially moderate so abortion issue won’t do any favors for the LNP here. By saying it doesn’t mean I think Labor will retain the seat on that issue alone. The odds in sportsbet are competitive with LNP favourites but not by big margin.
The exit poll says otherwise
There are big problems with exit polling as done by the courier mail
The sample size on a global basis approx 1000 may be OK but the seat size 100 is much too small to be meaningful.you gov suggests 3 to4?% on coasts which if accurate bodes well for a 7% margin the evidence is mixed…there is a chance of alp retention.
Most recent newspoll was 55/45, an 8% uniform swing. Gaven is right on the precipice, but I think it’s survivable for Labor. In any kind of non uniform swing, seats with an active sandbagging effort will be on the lower side of it (for their region).
The left wing media thinks this will possibly be a narrow Labor hold. It won’t happen. the swing will be enormous here. This is the Gold Coast. 15% swing to the LNP and should have the margin reversed from ALP to LNP.
Especially with Bianca Stone as the candidate.
Agree Daniel/NP, I think this seat may be similar to Drysdale in NT (located in a naturally conservative region) and the sitting member does not have a secure margin.
In Drysdale Eva Lawler lost badly, and I think that is also what will occur for Meghan Scanlon in Gaven.
Looks like the so called “left wing media” were in fact correct about this one.
Line ball prob alp retain
@Mick yes but certainly was a contest which is all that was predicted. There were a few people though who claimed double digit swing against Labor.
Meaghan will get through against celebrity
It was reported in the Courier Mail LNP canidate Bianca Stone contacted Meaghan Scanlon to concede defeat.
What went wrong for the LNP here? They preselected a high-profile former news reporter in Labor’s only Gold Coast seat and have likely lost. Why?
labors abortion scare campaign worked
Meaghan Scanlon seems to be popular locally, and the Labor left faction (and associated unions) poured a lot of resources into campaigning for this seat.
@john what about the LNP’s “patients tax” scare campaign, where the AMA told them to stop misusing their quotes. Elements of the LNP’S “youth crime crisis” advertisements gave scare campaign vibes too. Both sides run scare campaigns.
@AA yea but the abortion thing was just a flat out lie
If it was a lie, David Crisafulli would’ve given a straight answer the first time. We still don’t know whether his MPs will get a conscience vote on the Katters’ bill, and there is a serious threat that conservative LNP MPs could overturn our abortion laws. That’s all I’ll say about that.
And the fact that the LNP still ran with the “patient tax” lie after Steven Miles and the AMA gave explicit answers.
@ AA if the LNP do that theyll be kicked out of office in 2028 nd they know this and this is why they wont do it.
Yes I definitely know that, Crisafulli would probably get a majority of his MPs to vote against Katter’s bill to avoid a one-term LNP government.