Currumbin – Queensland 2024

I’ll admit I’m not as familiar with QLD state politics but with the YouGov poll has the LNP 51/49 there way with polling consistently improving for the LNP which would suggest Labor is in trouble here. However, its still about a year so it will be interesting to see if this trend continues or if Labor can turn it back in their favour.

@ Bob I think you may have this electorate confused with Labor-held Gaven?

Currumbin is held by the LNP on a margin of 0.5%. I’m sure Labor will be looking to seats such as this one to offset any potential (and in my opinion, likely) losses in regional Queensland, but in the event the LNP wins government, this seat will remain comfortably under their control.

@Laine
My apologies, I mean the entire state, I wrote on here as I couldn’t find a thread to write on that referred to QLD as a whole. I think state Labor wide is in trouble is likely to be defeated in 2024 due to the current polling. I agree that this seat either way who wins office will stay with the LNP.

@Bob @Laine agreed. The LNP is ahead in the polls, improving in the polls and tipped to win by Sportsbet, Tab and Ladbrokes. It’s been a while since a poll has been released though. Hopefully they start doing polls every two weeks, then in 2024 weekly. Same goes for the NT and the ACT; I hope we get some regular polls there too. Should the LNP win the election, their win will probably come from regional Queensland (e.g seats like Bundaberg, Cairns, Hervey Bay, Mackay, Rockhampton, Townsville, etc). I’m expecting a big swing in Cook and Gladstone too.

Portal… qld is a unique place… and there is a huge amount of cross voting. All things being equal a alp govt is more likely

Mick, I see Queensland as the inverse of NSW. Just like the Coalition being fairly popular but also having been in office for 10+ consecutive years at the time of the last election, Queensland Labor has the same ‘it’s time’ factor working against them. Thus, Labor is almost certain to lose seats and the best they can hope for is to be returned in minority.

I would tend to agree at this stage via the polling and election cycle that the LNP retain is the most likely outcome. Gold Coast itself has been generally a let down in terms of seats for Labor in comparison to the golden years of the previous Beattie governments. It was reported recently that LNP MP for Currumbin Laura Gerber has been promoted to shadow cabinet. Gerber is seen as a ‘rising star’ in the LNP ranks it was reported.

Currumbin or Coomera is Labor’s best shot at another Gold Coast seat. But yes as Nightwatchman mentioned, the LNP have invested a lot of energy in building Gerber’s profile to sandbag this division and it might just work.

Regarding Coomera, it is has seen a lot of population increase and is terribly over quota. This drastic change in population does make it a bit of enigma worth investing campaign energy into for both parties. The issue for Labor though in Coomera is that booth results in the Voice referendum were also remarkably disappointing for Labor in Coomera.

Also Fadden by-election results also would have fell below their expectations. Low turn-out can be partly to blame but cannot fully dismiss their low votes.

I think Labor in looking at the division of Theodore might see the anomalously close margin as an opportunity. I would caution thought that Theodore also had similarly poor results for Labor in the Fadden by-election and the referendum. I would also say that its demographics don’t seem particularly favourable either. Very high proportion of mortgage holders. A combination of acreage dwellings and affluent canal properties.

I used to live In Currumbin for 12 years. The reason Labor got close in 2020 besides the Covid response boost was that Jann Stuckey fell out with The LNP and her husband ran as a spoiler and gave Labor his preferences. The LNP will hold this seat very easily in 24.

I thought that the LNP would score a swing to them in 2020. It’s probably because I watched too much media reporting of how the hard border during Covid made life difficult for those wanting to cross it for work or to see family and that it would also destroy tourism jobs. I actually believed that Currumbin residents were against the hard border and would punish Labor.

The issues around former MP, Jann Stuckey causing trouble has now been resolved and I think Gerber has built herself a good reputation locally. She’ll be the beneficiary of a good swing this time after a couple of close calls.

She’ll be a Minister by the end of the year.

This, Coomera, Everton and maybe Chatsworth are Must wins for Labor in future state elections to win a majority (2028-onwards) if Labor cannot recover the half a dozen seats or more in the regions in future elections.

The seats I mentioned are held by the LNP, you also have to factor the Greens will have a few current Labor held seats in future so for Labor to win a majority without sweeping Townsville, Cairns, and a few other seats like Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Keppel, etc. They would need to win seats like the ones I mentioned that are held by the LNP for majority.

Perhaps I’d also add Theodore and Burleigh, but at that stage Labor would have a majority of Gold Coast seats which would be symbolic considering its history.

What other seats would you add as must Labor wins for majority in future elections? (That they didn’t win in 2020)

Daniel I would add Clayfield, but I believe the demographics there appear to be favouring the Greens rather than Labor.

@Daniel T I reckon that Coomera, Everton, Chatsworth, Theodore, Burleigh, Ninderry, Oodgeroo and Glass House would be LNP seats that Labor would need to win if the LNP has a landslide victory in the regions.

@ Daniel T, Yoh An and AA
I honestly, think it will be very hard for Labor to win a majority without winning the majority of the seats in Townsville, Cairns etc. We should look at 1998 and 2015 election when Labor won most of the Regional seats they hold now (in 1998 they did not hold Mulgrave, Thuringowa and Maryborough and they fell 1 seat short. Assuming they perform better in future in Everton, Aspley Chatsworth, The other seats i see are Coomera and Theodore. I feel Cleveland/Oodeergeo probably will not improve for Labor longer term. Even by Brisbane standards it is very Anglo , fewer renters no unionized workers. I feel waterfront parts of the Gold Coast such as Southport, Burleigh and Currumbin may trend conservative as SEQ continues to grow and beachside real estate becomes scarce, so i do think Glasshouse is another possibility as well. The best hope for Labor is population growth in South West Greater Brisbane will create new seats in the Ripley Valley, Greater Flagstone etc.

Yes I think Bundamba and Logan will be split in the future to create more seats. So too will Morayfield.

historically qld and vic have
Had a bias in favour of electing alp governments. But there does not seem to
Be alp landslides in qld. The lnp seemed ready to stuff up from the time of the GOSS government which was really an electoral earthquake. ” can do Campbell ” was the last failed attempt. It is like a man who comes into his inheritance only to find it is counterfeit money.

@Nimalan I think in the future Labor would be able to win a majority without a majority in Townsville by winning a majority in Brisbane and having more ground on the Gold Coast than they did between 2015 and now. As for Cairns, I think Barron River will be a safe LNP seat and Cairns will be a bellwether seat.

*Oh shit, I just realised you said you also see them not winning a majority in Townsville. I thought you said they needed Townsville. My bad.

@Daniel T I would add Clayfield. But in saying that I don’t think Labor will ever win every single seat in Brisbane especially since they’ve never come that close to cracking Moggill.

@ Nether Portal
I honestly think that it will be hard for the Labor to make up more ground with the exception of Coomera, Theodore to offset regional losses. SEQ is forecasted to have a population greater than Scotland in the next decade and a half so this will drive up property values along the waterfront. Despite a long coast line. SEQ only has limited surf beaches due to the Barrier reef (pretty much only Gold Coast, Sunshine coast and the islands. Superannuation has caused more inequality so wealthier retirees etc will settle in places like Currumbin, Bureligh etc and i believe it will trend more conservative with time. In Clayfield you have wealthy property investors who vote LNP and increasingly young renters who vote Green so Labor just gets squeezed out.

Former infantry soldier for the Australian Army Nathan Fleury will run as the Labor candidate for the seat of Currumbin it was reported. Unless something dramatically changes it’s an easy LNP retain via the statewide polling. I think Currumbin could be a Labor gain one day, but it won’t anytime soon. As mentioned Gold Coast has been a bit of letdown for the Labor party despite the party gaining ground in conservative Sunshine Coast last state election.

I think there were definitely a few anomalies at the last election for this seat. With Laura Gerbers profile and rumoured Gold Coast opinion polling I think it will be an LNP retain with a good swing.

Kath Down an independent candidate is running in Currumbin, perhaps this is what McPherson Matters is looking for?

@Caleb what are her views?

@Nether Portal she seems to be part of the Save Our Southern Gold Coast forum, protecting beaches and Surf Clubs and is against light rail, she contested GC’s Div 14 in the council elections this year and was <200 votes away from winning that seat.

her views are pretty much just tram bad

@Caleb @Oguh seems silly to be against the light rail. Nothing bad about it really, I’ve used it before without problems. Looks like she won’t be getting too many votes.

here’s the link to KathDown.com.au as well as her Facebook page for Save Our Southern Gold Coast
https://kathdown.com.au/
https://www.facebook.com/sosgc.org.au/

@Nether Portal the tram is shockingly unpopular in this area of the coast, her purely anti-tram council campaign almost won her a seat, I think her campaign definitely one to look out for.

She also helped on Labor’s Burleigh campaign in the last election.

@nether Portal the Light Rail is a great project that will take cars off the road, increase tourist numbers to this area of the Gold Coast, and help local businesses. But there’s a handful of loud NIMBYs who don’t want it, because it’ll take away car parking spaces and car lanes from the Gold Coast Highway.

@AA exactly, the positive outweigh the negatives.

Agree AA and NP, I found the tram/light rail is also faster than local bus services. Although it would be good for the southern Gold Coast near Currumbin and the airport to also have a heavy rail connection which could be achieved by extending the current line south from Varsity Lakes.

@Nether Portal agreed, people just want to complain. There are so many positives, and from an urban planning perspective, Light Rail will bring so much benefit to the southern Gold Coast.

@Yoh An I would like to see the Light Rail extended down to Coolangatta, and the heavy rail extended to an interchange with light rail at Gold Coast Airport.

Cities with light rail and/or metros:

* Adelaide
* Canberra
* Gold Coast
* Melbourne
* Newcastle
* Sydney (two tram lines, Sydney CBD and Parramatta, and the Sydney Metro)

I’ve caught the tram in all of those cities before. Interestingly Newcastle got them before Sydney did.

The big question is why doesn’t Brisbane have them?

I can give you the reason why.

Brisbane’s busway infrastructure has been developed so much (especially with the new Brisbane Metro buses) that it would now be economically unviable to introduce a brand new light rail system.

Trams were a possibility before the Metro buses were announced, but not anymore. It’s just too expensive and inconvenient, when they’re already looking at extending the Metro to Carindale and Chermside.

@AA I think it should go further than Coolangatta down to Tweed Heads and Kingscliff on the NSW side of the border. To get to Kingscliff it’d need a bridge though (like the car bridge that already exists) because it’s on the opposite side of the Tweed River. And to get to even Banora Point which is a suburb of Tweed Heads a bridge because of Terranora Creek (there is also a car bridge that already exists across the creek).

Costly, but doable and it has more positives than negatives.

@AA oh yeah good point. I’ve caught the buses many times but I still prefer the trams.

What about Perth?

No trams in Perth it’s trains and buses

@John Perth yeah I know they don’t have them but why? Is it also because of buses?

Somewhere that could get trams is the Central Coast. Most of the trains there aren’t near the coast so there could be a tram line that goes from Woy Woy to Gosford to Erina to Terrigal to The Entrance to Tuggerah and then Wyong. Wollongong on the other hand has trains on the coast and in the CBD as well as down in its second CBD (Shellharbour).

@Nether Portal the buses on the coastal side of the Central Coast are pretty terrible. Light rail there would be a good idea.

Perth is not as big as Sydney or Melbourne and there just isn’t the need for them

Kath Down, as an anti-light rail candidate, can skim off votes from Labor as Labor is associated with the Light Rail extension. This in turn will help LNP. I think that ironically, Labor’s preferences will go to her before the LNP.

@NP, I disagree about light rail on the Central Coast. CC is sparsesly populated. East of Brisbane Water and east of the CC train line is more like a collection of villages or townships, rather than suburbs. It’s not dense like the Gold Coast, Sydney or Melbourne and light rail would be financially sustainable. There is heavy rail between Gosford and Woy Woy. There are main roads going in and out of Gosford and with them, there are bus routes.

@Votante as @AA mentioned the buses aren’t that good. I wouldn’t describe the eastern Central Coast as sparsely populated towns or villages, I think you’ve got it mixed up with the western side which is mostly a few semi-rural suburbs in national parks (Peats Ridge, Somersby, Mount White, etc come to mind), similar to the Hawkesbury region on the outskirts of Sydney.

Agree with the characterisation that the anti-tram sentiment seems to be of a very vocal cohort. The silent views are more positive or at least apathetic. I think most people in the apathetic cohort are just wearily hopeful that the airport finally gets a connection. But yes, the tram extension continues to politically energise the constituents of the Southern Gold Coast and it will come up as part of the formal election campaign. I’ve noticed that Labor have recently resurfaced the plans for the heavy rail extension to Coolangatta airport again. But I’m cautious about this because these plans have been floating around for well over a decade. Easy thing to put on the table for elections, but seemingly hard to make material. Perhaps this is where the Cross River Rail Authority will direct its resources following the new stations that come online (Pimpama, Hope Island, Merrimac).

What is the general sentiment on the southern GC? I get the NIMBYism and fear of overcrowding, but what about in the inland suburbs like Elanora and Currumbin Waters?

@NP, CC is quite bushy and there are semi-rural localities like Picketts Valley, Mathcam and Holgate. Of course, it’s more dense by the sea and along the Pacific Hwy. Gosford to Terrigal is about 10 or 11km. You could drive through suburbs containing combined populations of over 100,000 if were to drive 10km out of Newcastle CBD or Wollongong CBD or the GC’s Surfers Paradise. In Wollongong, suburbs are between the ocean and escarpments. GC is more spread out but it’s mainly suburbia.

Whilst as a local I do think that there is a vocal minority, it can’t be understated that she came very very close to winning the seat in council. I’m expecting a decent voteshare, taking from the ALP as they are both pro the extension, and the LNP with name recognition from council. I could also see her taking some votes from the Greens

@AReelPerson federal, state and local politics are different. Look at Brisbane.

Down represents a group of fuddy-duddies who think they can keep the outside world out of their patch of paradise and have nothing change over time. But this is South East Queensland, one of the fastest growing places in Australia. Change is inevitable, and ironically the light rail is the only thing that can prevent Palm Beach from turning into a daily traffic jam.

To their credit the (slim) majority of people in the area understand this, which is why Down didn’t win the local council division. If she can’t win in a contest where the LNP aren’t running, I don’t give her much hope in one where they are. Many of those same anti-light rail fuddy-duddies will probably give their first preference to the LNP because they don’t want to risk Labor retaining government with the support of independents (unlikely as that outcome may be).

As to why Perth doesn’t have light rail, it’s very spread out and low-density, even compared to cities like Brisbane, which makes the business case for light rail less impressive. They also had a lack of commuter heavy rail lines, so they’ve chosen to put their money into that instead of light rail. Maybe once the heavy rail lines to Ellenbrook, Byford and Cockburn via Thornlie are done, they might consider light rail.

Kath Down is likely to get enough votes that her preferences could sway the results of the seat. She seems to be against both major parties so I imagine they will go last on her ballot. She was on Burleigh’s campaign team for Labor in 2020, so Labor could be before the LNP. If she preferences Greens second (something that seems very reasonable), there is a small chance that they could be pushed into the 2pp, if the Greens primary is a similar level to what it was in McPherson in the Currumbin area (around 18%).