Cook – Queensland 2024

@Scart Labor won’t be winning Maryborough and I doubt they’ll win Mulgrave. Labor will likely only hold two seats outside Brisbane: Gladstone and Ipswich.

I doubt the electorate would hold grudges towards someone who was an ex-Newman Government MP.

Plenty of MPs from defeated governments have successfully made comebacks. For example, Labor MPs who lost their seats in 2012 but regained them in 2015 include: Cameron Dick, Grace Grace and Di Farmer. Some Federal Labor MPs who lost in 2013 following the Rudd-Gillard era regained their seats in 2016.

Regarding the Voice results, this is a federal issue. There were indigenous communities that were supportive of Warren Entsch (LNP) but also voted Yes to the voice e.g. Hope Vale and a few others in Cape York. I sense that they may swing away due to Entsch’s retirement and possibly due to the Voice defeat.

@start I think the only seat that they can hold is Gladstone. While they have double digit margins elsewhere after the by elections I don’t think that will save them.

@Nether Portal what about Bundamba?

Cook’s too close to call imo. I think Lui seems popular and it’s not a seat with a history of voting LNP. I also think Kempton’s selection was poor.

I can see the LNP winning seats much higher on the pendulum from Labor but not winning Cook.

@SCart oh yes and Bundamba.

The KAP have found a new candidate, police officer Duane Amos

I think it’s time to vote Independent! Both ALP and LNP have done nothing for the High Cost of Living in the Cook Electorate over 4 decades since I was born! We are neglected and South East Queensland gets the big $$$ for development and our health is suffering in the far north!!!

Betting has opened for Cook, and it’s the only electorate market so far where Labor are the favourite. Lui is $1.36 to retain, Kempton $2.88.

good odds on kempton

Odds are pretty short for Labor considering the seat margin is a single digit and statewide Labor is slated for a wipeout. I’m not familiar with FNQ. Does Lui have a strong personal vote there?

Yes, but also the LNP picking a Newman era MP will hurt them here. LNP can still win but it will prob knock 1-2% off the swing than a Generic LNP candidate with no ties to Newman.

@Votante yes especially up in the Torres Strait and the tip of Cape York since she’s a local Torres Strait Islander.

Labor held up well in remote indigenous-majority seats like Arafura, Arnhem, Gwoja at the NT Election.
However, most shockingly, Daly (43.2% indigenous) went very well for Labor.
Seems like Labor, in line with sportsbet odds (now it is 1.4 for Labor and 3.2 for LNP), is on track to actually retain Cook (34.3% indigenous).
I am looking like an absolute idiot for betting $30 on LNP winning Cook (when it was on 2.88)!!!

@lein it’s not over till it’s over

@ Leon,
It will be good if someone can do a table with indigenous % and Swing to CLP that way we can do some analysis?

@Nimalan I’ll have a look at some booths when they come in. Remember that there are heaps of mobile booths and Aboriginal communities in the Territory swing around the place, so one might swing +10% to the CLP and the other might swing +10% to Labor. They tend to heavily favour voting for people from their local language group.

Tennant Creek is majority Aboriginal. However, last time there was no election day booth there (but there was this time). There was, however, an early voting centre, and there was at this election too. Here’s how the CLP TPP and swing there and at the election day booth:

Tennant Creek: 66.7%
Tennant Creek EVC: 55.7% (+12.5%)

Looking at how well Labor held up in NT bush seats, I’m beginning to doubt that the LNP will win Cook as well. But it will be very close. I expect larger swings in Port Douglas and Mareeba, and smaller swings in rural communities.

Poll Bludger shows 5 candidates on the Ballot in the order of Labor, LNP, KAP, One Nation & Greens
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Cook

@Caleb it should go like this:

1. LNP (↑)
2. Labor (↓)
3. KAP (?)
4. One Nation (↓)
5. Greens (?)

TPP:
1. LNP (↑)
2. Labor (↓)

LNP GAIN from Labor.

If Labor are going to retain any regional seat bar Gladstone, then it’ll be this. This isn’t actually an Indigenous-majority seat, but a lot of Indigenous people do live here so the swing MIGHT be less, just based on the NT results. But, no two Indigenous communities are fully alike and remember turnout in remote Aboriginal communities in the Territory dropped and while there were swings to Labor in Labor seats in Barkly and Namatjira (CLP seats) there was a swing to the CLP even in Aboriginal communities.

If kap make the 2cp they should be able to topple Labor the right parties totalled 51% of the primary last time but the lnp only managed 43% tpp so there was some leakage to get Labor over the line. Obviously some people vote kap>labbut then give preferences to lab over libs so ud think if it’s lab v kap the katters would get the edge especially if the right vote can increase as the lnp and onp vote would solidify behind kap stronger then onp and kap do behind libs

A KAP win would be beneficial in the long run for the LNP as this seat generally votes Labor and the lnp vote is concentrated in the more southern parts. Which would over time be transferred out due to redistribution. A KAP mp would be able to hold the seat longer and I suspect the lnp would only hold for a single term or maybe two again as they have never help it longer in its entire history as is generally Labor held for long periods. But a KAP mp would likely hold it as the tend to draw votes from both lnp and Labor and would benefit from lnp preferences

3cp
LAB 46.66%
LIB 30.02%
KAP 23.32%

Katters probably won’t break the 2cp this time around.They would need to shed 7% without the lnp gaining any. This will likely be lnp vs lab and could be close

With Katter announcing they’re preferencing LNP, it definitely changes things, and shifts at least a couple percentage points from ALP to LNP.

The redistribution will favour labor over liberal so it might be an opportunity for kap to steal it

If KAP finish second they’ll win and if the LNP finish first or second they’ll probably win if KAP voters decide to follow the HTV card. I’m pretty sure they have two HTV cards in one where one preferences the LNP (closer social and agrarian policies) and the other preferences Labor (closer economic policies).

At bad elections this seat tends to be won by the lnp.. maybe with some on the tablelands in the seat this could be slightly better for the lnp…. but I think alp retain. Kap have a much better chance in Mirani

I don’t think kap can make the 2cp just yet here. I think if they can help the lnp here though. The redistribution will probably guarantee the lnp lose it in 2028. I’m willing to wager Mirani is abolished after redistribution mick. And the lnp won’t need it to win govt this time around

I’d say this is line ball between Labor and LNP. KAP will finish third.

Because of demographic and economic differences between here and the rest of regional QLD, it won’t swing as much to the LNP as seats further south. In 2012, the swing to LNP was 5.7%. This was when KAP made its debut. ONP has finished second in the past – 2017, 2001, 1998. When KAP or ONP perform strongly, the LNP suffers bigger primary vote swings than Labor does.

Is Katter preferencing LNP across the board or just in the Townsville Seats?
I think it may be the latter.

Alp retain

Interestingly in 2022 because Warren Entsch did so well in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander parts of Leichhardt, so this would be an LNP seat on federal figures.

Port Douglas and Weipa will definitely vote LNP so that could push the LNP over the line here.

This seat is 55.3% non-Indigenous and 34.3% Indigenous, so it’s the most Indigenous seat in Queensland.

Sportsbet thinks Labor will retain. ALP $1.40 LNP $3.40.

On federal results the LNP got 50.9% of the TPP/TCP here against Labor/KAP. While the vast majority of this seat is in Leichhardt which is LNP vs Labor, a small portion of this seat (i.e around Mareeba and Biboohra) is located in Kennedy which is KAP vs LNP.

Interestingly the only reason the LNP would’ve won this on federal results last time was because of Warren Entsch’s personal vote in the Indigenous communities north of Cairns. While Weipa, Port Douglas, Cooktown and the surrounding coastal rural towns are normally good for the LNP and Mareeba and Biboohra are normally good for KAP, the Torres Strait Islands and the Aboriginal communities of the Cape are traditionally good for Labor. However, in 2022 there was a massive swing to the LNP in these communities (a mix of both a growing trend towards the LNP among Indigenous Queenslanders and also largely from donkey voting which is also why the Socialist Alliance vote was so high in the remote towns up there) which reached up to +32.6% in Pormpuraaw, +30.7% in Kowanyama and +30.0% at Remote Mobile Team 5.

As always, this does not include postals as there is no way to tell where they’re from. However, it does include the PPVCs in Cooktown, Mareeba, Port Douglas, Thursday Island and Weipa as well as all six remote mobile booths.

@ Nether Portal
From the Gregory thread, it maybe interesting to watch how the Aboriginal majority booths such as Hope Vale, Lockhart River, Wujul Wujul etc. A lot of these are seperate LGAs so easy to identify.

KAP stand on abortion will draw the Aboriginal and Torres Straits voters.
Add Labor preferences and KAP has manufactured a win from nowhere.

@Nimalan true plus the Torres Strait.

I’m also interested to see the Yarrabah booth in Mulgrave, which had a 90% Labor 2pp at the last election.

Kap chance but alp retain

@map won’t win this time around it’s alp vlnp but kap a chance in 2028 especially if LNP can remove the current member.

Interesting kap are now a chance

I just looked at the first preference count for Cook. It’s very interesting to see what booths are voting for who, especially in the Indigenous towns. Some voted Labor, others didn’t.

Cooktown (22.4% Indigenous):
* Cooktown: 36.1% Labor
* Cooktown EVC: 36.3% LNP

Mossman (20.3% Indigenous):
* Mossman: 32.7% Labor
* Mossman EVC: 42.1% LNP

Port Douglas (2.3% Indigenous):
* Port Douglas: 34.7% LNP

Weipa (19.9% Indigenous):
* Weipa EVC: 32.2% LNP
* Weipa North: 35.4% Labor
(No idea why but there is no “Weipa” booth, just an EVC and the “Weipa North” booth)

Remote Aboriginal communities:
* Aurukun (88.7% Indigenous): 61.9% KAP
* Bamaga (78.7% Indigenous): 72.5% Labor
* Coen (73.8% Indigenous): 47.7% Labor
* Hope Vale (86.7% Indigenous): 47.6% LNP
* Kowanyama (86.8% Indigenous): 48.9% Labor
* Lockhart River (78.4% Indigenous): 60.8% Labor
* Napranum (81.1% Indigenous): 48.4% Labor
* Pormpuraaw (78.5% Indigenous): 72.2% Labor
* Wujal Wujal (93.5% Indigenous): 59.9% Labor

Remote rural towns:
* Biboohra (9.8% Indigenous): 40.5% LNP
* Chillagoe (24.0% Indigenous): 41.1% LNP
* Daintree (5.4% Indigenous): 49.4% LNP
* Diwan (1.8% Indigenous): 30.7% LNP
* Julatten (5.0% Indigenous): 30.8% Labor
* Mareeba (15.4% Indigenous): 35.4% LNP
* Miallo (5.4% Indigenous): 35.0% LNP
* Wonga Beach (13.1% Indigenous): 41.1% LNP

Mobile teams:
* Mobile Team 3: 44.1% KAP
(For some reason no votes are showing up for Mobile Teams 1 and 2)

I’ll analyse further when the official preference counts come through, since some will be different on primaries to TPP, e.g Cooktown is going to be won by the LNP on KAP and One Nation preferences which will be enough to get the LNP over the line. For some reason there are still no figures from any of the Torres Strait Islands either (Horn Island had an election day booth and Thursday Island had both an election day booth (“Tamwoy Town”) and an EVC), or from Port Kennedy.

Aurukun and Hope Vale are the outliers as they didn’t vote Labor (the KAP candidate is Indigenous and perhaps might be from Aurukun which would boost popularity there while the LNP candidate and now MP is white so I’m not sure why he (David Kempton) won Hope Vale). But Labor noticeably got under 50% of the primary vote in most Indigenous communities, with Bamaga, Lockhart River and Wujal Wujal being the sole exceptions.

Most of the primary vote swings against Labor here in the Indigenous communities were huge:

* Aurukun: –27.5%
* Bamaga: –16.8%
* Coen: +3.9%
* Hope Vale: –21.4%
* Kowanyama: –6.6%
* Lockhart River: +1.7%
* Napranum: –13.2%
* Pormpuraaw: +6.2%
* Wujal Wujal: +35.3% — note that North Queensland First finished first here in 2020 so this is mostly at the expense of them

And with that benefiting the LNP and KAP who knows what the TPP swing could be?

Swings to the LNP on primaries in Indigenous communities in Cook:

* Aurukun: +11.2%
* Bamaga: +3.8%
* Coen: –5.9%
* Hope Vale: +42.0%
* Kowanyama: +21.8%
* Lockhart River: +5.3%
* Napranum: +11.7%
* Pormpuraaw: +11.5%
* Wujal Wujal: +21.9%

Swings to KAP on primaries in Indigenous communities in Cook:

* Aurukun: +53.8%
* Bamaga: +13.4%
* Coen: +17.0%
* Hope Vale: –41.0%
* Kowanyama: +5.8%
* Lockhart River: +15.9%
* Napranum: +7.0%
* Pormpuraaw: –7.8%
* Wujal Wujal: –20.3%

The results in Hopevale and Wujal Wujal are fascinating. I wonder why there was such a strong KAP to LNP transfer. Its possible, in Wujal Wujal at least, that the KAP secessionist stance is off putting after the floods and the need for a strong centralized response. But I am curious about Hopevale, especially as it is one of the bigger towns.

I think you need lots more counting .
Cannot see why was listed as lnp gain
They are infront

@Darcy given they’re both Indigenous communities it’s very hard to tell why each town swung which way and by that much, especially since a lot of people there don’t vote and most people aren’t aware of a lot of current political events. For this reason I doubt abortion would be a reason. The floods however could be a reason.

Hope Vale is only 115km (an hour and 39 minutes in a car on Cape York roads) north of Wujal Wujal, so it could be a geographic thing. People in Indigenous communities tend to vote for candidates who are from that town, so in the NT if Labor preselects a candidate in Barkly from Borroloola then that candidate will most likely win Borroloola but won’t do as well in Tennant Creek (which has trended CLP recently anyway due to crime and Tennant Creek, while majority-Indigenous, is whiter than Borroloola).

As for Aurukun, the KAP candidate (Duane Amos) is a police officer and community leader, and according to KAP’s website “Mr Amos’ policing career has seen him become a recognised community leader, advocate, and servant in Cook communities such as Cairns, Innisfail, Weipa, Kowanyama, and most recently Aurukun.” Maybe this explains the enormous swing in Aurukun?

@Mick Turnout in Cook in 2020 was only 80% so I don’t think the LNP lead will be overturned. The margin of victory could easily shrink though, just not by enough.